By Bharat Lather
13 Sep , 2016
India occupies one of the most strategically important locations in the world. A short distance from the Persian Gulf, Central Asia and Southeast Asia, India has been an important hub for ideas, trade and religion for thousands of years. Unfortunately, that geographic positioning has its disadvantages. India is faced on two sides by powerful, nuclear-armed countries with which it has fought wars with—China and Pakistan. India’s most formidable rival and a long term threat is China, with whom it fought a short, sharp border war in 1962 which resulted in a debacle for the Indian army.
The PLA’s weapons development and procurement efforts have also focused on developing the ability to implement informationized warfighting strategies like anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) to counter US and its allies.
China’s growing military has transformed it from a mainly ground-based threat to a multifaceted one with powerful assets in the air, at sea and even in space. Furthermore, the December 2015 promotion of the PLA Rocket Force (PLARF) to a full military branch, and the creation of a Strategic Support Force (PLASSF)—which will focus on space and cyber as well as the creation of 5 joint theatre commands also indicate that strategic priorities of the PLA have shifted to information-based joint warfare, and an emphasis on technology while being able to fight the full spectrum of conflicts from irregular to strategic warfare. The PLA has also shifted its focus away from the historically dominant ground forces and towards bolstering the Navy (PLAN) and Air Force (PLAAF). The PLA’s weapons development and procurement efforts have also focused on developing the ability to implement informationized warfighting strategies like anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) to counter US and its allies.
Now, the PLA possesses numerous ballistic missiles from short range to ICBM’s, the world’s first anti-ship ballistic missiles (DF-21D), an array of air, land, and sea launched cruise missiles, and extremely strong air defenses (S-300PMU2, S-400, HQ-7, HQ-16, and HQ-9). Additionally, Chinese space capabilities have grown from 10 satellites in 2000 to 181 in 2016.
India’s second most powerful rival is Pakistan, which was also part of the British Raj. India and Pakistan have fought four wars since 1947, and appeared on the verge of a fifth during the 2001-02 military stand-off. Under CSF (Coalition Support Funds), Pakistan got $14 billion from USA, which eventually allowed them to sufficiently arm themselves vis-à-vis India. Back in the 2000s, the IAF had a clear superiority over the Pakistani Air Force (PAF) by every possible measure (thanks primarily to the rapid implementation of the Su-30MKI program). Now, however, the situation is completely different. Pakistan has received up-to-date versions of America’s F-16 fighters and dozens of the Chinese-Pakistani FC-1 planes. What was once India’s complete dominance over the Pakistani Air Force has become a mere superiority? In fact, Pakistan may well achieve near-parity over time if it receives J-10 fighters from China (as well as the J-31, the quasi-5th generation fighter now being developed by the Chinese). Such near-parity between the IAF and the PAF would be completely unprecedented.
…India’s large reserves of manpower are no longer as useful as they once were, and India will need to favor the former over the latter if it wants to match—and deter—Chinese and Pakistani forces.
Complicating matters for India, the two countries are allies, resulting in nuclear nexus, numerous arms deals, joint military exercises and the most recent being the joint patrolling; clearly illustrating that a two front war seems very likely in India’s context. At the same time, Sino-Pak relations are governed by Maoist-era strategy of “the enemy of my enemy is my friend”
Advances in military technology mean India’s large reserves of manpower are no longer as useful as they once were, and India will need to favor the former over the latter if it wants to match—and deter—Chinese and Pakistani forces.
Introducing P-81 Neptune for the Indian Navy
An emergence of Indo-US defense cooperation comes as a much needed break-through for India. In 2009, India signed a contract worth $ 3.9 billion dollars with Boeing to supply 8 P-8 Multi-mission Maritime Aircraft (MMA), and were handed over accordingly. Most recently, India’s Cabinet Committee on Security has cleared a $1 billion U.S. order of four Boeing P-8I Neptune maritime patrol aircraft (MPA) for the Indian Navy. These will join the Indian Navy’s eight existing P-8Is. India is the first international customer for the P-8, and the acquisition of the platform is a good example of the growing Indo-US naval cooperation. The P-8I has a range of over 1200 nautical miles, is capable of in-flight refueling, and can remain on task at a station for 4 hours. Its weapon suite includes the Harpoon Block II anti-ship missile, Mk-54 torpedoes, and depth charges.
The Indian government’s decision to purchase four additional Boeing P-8I aircraft through the U.S. Foreign Military Sales program addresses a gap in India’s airborne anti-submarine warfare capability. While the additional P-8Is will improve the capabilities of the Indian Navy; the current plan is for the four additional aircraft to arrive within the next three years, bringing India’s total number of P-8Is to 12. These maritime patrol aircraft have the ability to quickly search a wide area of water with sonobuoy patterns and guide other forces onto suspected “contacts” (submarines).
By 2020, China is likely to have a fleet of more than 70 submarines.
The additional capability can be crucial, as surface warships and even submarines can find it very difficult to reliably find, shadow, and maintain contact with modern rival submarines in large ocean expanses. It is China’s growing submarine fleet that has been the trigger for India’s own initiatives to bolster its undersea forces. By 2020, China is likely to have a fleet of more than 70 submarines. The focus on China’s rapidly growing underwater warfare capability is central to understanding the importance of anti-submarine warfare for the Indian Navy.
Introducing C-17 Globemaster III and C-130J for the Indian Air Force
In 2011, India’s Cabinet Committee on Security approved the purchase of 10 C-17 Globemaster III heavy-lift transport aircraft from the United States for use by the Indian Air Force, in a deal worth $4.1 billion and were inducted accordingly. The contract, which has an offset obligation of about $1 billion, is the highest single value military contract that New Delhi has entered into with the United States.
The C-17 planes have significantly enhanced India’s strategic lift capacity. With a payload capacity of more than 73,600 kilograms, the planes are capable of carrying 188 passengers, have reverse thrust engines for short turnaround, and are equipped with a missile warning system with flares to disengage any incoming missile attack. Before signing this landmark agreement, the Russian IL-76 ‘Gajraj’ and AN-32 has been the Indian Air Force’s mainstay for transporting men and material.
India would purchase 25 guns in ready-to-use condition with the remaining 120 howitzers to be built in partnership with Mahindra Defense at a BAE Systems Assembly, Integration and Test facility in India.
Lockheed Martin will be delivering 6 C-130J Super Hercules in 2017 to the Indian Air Force. In addition, the US-firm is also in discussion with the India Meteorological Department for specially configured C-130J aircraft that fly into typhoons and hurricanes to obtain information about major storms far more detailed than is provided by weather satellites. India placed an order for additional six C-130Js in 2013, besides operating five more. India lost one C-130J airlifter in 2013 crash. West Bengal’s Panagarh will be the Indian Air Force’s (IAF) second hub for these new C-130J Super Hercules aircraft. Once all 6 planes are delivered, India’s fleet will rise to 11.
Introducing AH-64D Apache for the Indian Air Force
Indian selection of the AH-64D Apache as its future attack helicopter is a prime example of technology over manpower. The Apache’s versatility means that it will be able to do everything from engage tank formations in a conventional war to hunt guerrillas in a counterinsurgency operation. The heavily armed, fast-moving Apache can counter a number of land-based threats to India, sensing enemy armored vehicles with its mast-mounted millimeter-wave radar and destroying them with Hellfire missiles, Hydra-70 anti-armor rockets and a 30mm chain gun. The helicopter can also detect insurgents under heavy cover using its thermal imaging sensor and engage them with anti-personnel rockets or the 30mm chain gun. Unlike other attack helicopters, the Apache has a proven combat record, destroying armor in Iraq and decimating Taliban hiding in the hillsides of Afghanistan.
Introducing M777 Howitzers for the Indian Army
In July, 2016, the Indian Ministry of Defense has approved the purchase of 145 M777 Ultra Lightweight Howitzers from BAE Systems at a cost of about $750 million. According to an agreement, India would purchase 25 guns in ready-to-use condition with the remaining 120 howitzers to be built in partnership with Mahindra Defense at a BAE Systems Assembly, Integration and Test facility in India. The M777 allegedly is the world’s first 155 millimeter howitzer weighing less than 10,000 pounds (4,218 kilograms). Partly made of titanium, the gun can be airlifted swiftly to high-altitude terrain and is ideally suited for mountain warfare. The M777 has a firing range of up to 25 kilometers. The Indian Army plans to induct the new gun into its new 17 Mountain Strike Corps, which is to be stood up by 2021.
Pakistan is the world’s top recipient of Chinese weapons.
Defense Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI)
India was officially unaligned in the Cold War but kept close relations with the Soviet Union — and the United States backed arch-rival Pakistan.
But there is a slow yet historic realignment underway. First of all, the United States and India are both growing warier of China’s rise as a major regional military power. Second, the U.S.-Pakistani relationship has deteriorated during the course of America’s decade-and-a-half-long war in Afghanistan. Meanwhile, Pakistan is the world’s top recipient of Chinese weapons. In 2012, then Defense Secretary Leon Panetta directed Carter — at the time his deputy — to head an initiative to widen the scope of mil-to-mil cooperation between the two counties. The result was the U.S.-India Defense Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI). Through DTTI, American and Indian officials have discussed sharing technology and boosting business ties between the two countries’ defense industries. During Carter’s April visit, he discussed the possibility of sharing technology to help New Delhi build its first domestically produced aircraft carrier INS Vishal — a deal the two countries have been negotiating through DTTI under the auspice of the “Aircraft Carrier Working Group.”
How America’s F-16s could be a game-changer for India?
In April 2016, Lockheed Martin surprised MMRCA watchers when it offered to relocate the entire F-16 assembly line to India. The announcement came on the tail of the U.S. government’s announcement that it would sell eight F-16s to Pakistan. (That deal with Pakistan subsequently floundered when the U.S. Congress, irked with Pakistan’s enduring and seemingly endless perfidy, refused to subsidize the sale.). Not surprisingly, Indian officials tended to rebuff the idea of inducting the F 16s for several reasons.
If the entire production were to shift to India, the price of the platform (F-16) would likely decrease. Countries that would like to purchase a fourth-generation aircraft but which currently cannot afford to do so may enter the market if prices decline.
First, India has a strong preference to “leap frog technologies.” The F-16, frequently dismissed because it is a “fourth generation aircraft,” ostensibly lacks the allure of other options. A second reason why the F-16 has little traction in India is the fact that Pakistan has long flown a version of this platform, albeit a far inferior version to that offered to India presently. Third, analysts often underestimate the quality and capabilities of this platform because they fail to appreciate that the most important elements of the airframe are the sensor technologies, avionics suites, munitions capabilities, and range, among other attributes in addition to its extreme speed and maneuverability. Even though the transformation of modern air combat increasingly emphasizes the above attributes while diminishing the utility of traditional properties such as extreme speed and maneuverability, by any measure the F-16 remains a superb platform.
The F-16 will provide India with a serious leap forward in developing a robust military-industry base that will position India to become a serious exporter of fighter aircraft as well as satisfying an important component of its own requirement. Proponents of the F-16 contend that it can simultaneously provide the Indian Air Force with extreme speed, agility, and range that exceeds that of the F/A-18 and Sweden’s Gripen. Moreover, the range of the F-16 can match or even exceed that of the Rafale at a lower price point. Unlike the other competitors in the MMRCA race, the F-16 is truly a global system with a globalized market and supply chain. Countries that currently fly this platform include: Bahrain, Belgium, Chile, Denmark, Egypt, Greece, Indonesia, Iraq, Israel, Italy, Jordan, the Netherlands, Norway, Oman, Morocco, Pakistan, South Korea, Poland, Portugal, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, UAE, the United States, Venezuela, and more recently Romania. Most importantly, the F-16 is the backbone of the fighter force structure of these countries.
If the entire production were to shift to India, the price of the platform (F-16) would likely decrease. Countries that would like to purchase a fourth-generation aircraft but which currently cannot afford to do so may enter the market if prices decline. This deal will afford India enormous opportunities to become the sole supplier of a truly international platform with a proven and viable market.
Over the past three years, Russian defense deals with India exceeded 340 billion rupees (over $5 billion), with the United States coming in at a close second with 300 billion rupees (around $4.4 billion) in deals.
Logistics exchange memorandum of agreement (LEMOA)
In August, 2016 India and USA inked a historic agreement to allow exchange of logistics enabling militaries to use each other’s assets and bases for repair and replenishment of supplies. This will, however, not entail positioning of US troops on Indian soil. The LEMOA is not just expected to help the US, it will act as a vital tool for India as it expands its naval footprint and outreach.
The US has a string of bases in East Africa, Persian Gulf, Diego Garcia, the Philippines, Japan and Australia. India warships and planes can seek similar refuel and repair facilities at these bases on long deployments, which are very frequent nowadays. At the same time, New Delhi will have the discretion of withdrawing in case it feels the US had gone to war with a country which India sees as friendly.
As a result of LEMOA, India’s strategic autonomy might get whittled down; India-Russia relations could atrophy (which is certainly important for the US global security, against the backdrop of the New Cold War); America’s arms exports to India might well enter a new boom period (India is expected to spend $150 billion dollars for arms purchases in the near future); these arms deals, in the absence of open tendering, would be highly lucrative for the American vendor.
Conclusion
As of March, 2016, Russia remains the largest supplier of military equipment to India, although, in 2014 the United States supplanted Russia as India’s top weapons supplier, with the total value of U.S. imports increasing from $200 million in 2009 to $2 billion in 2014. Over the past three years, Russian defense deals with India exceeded 340 billion rupees (over $5 billion), with the United States coming in at a close second with 300 billion rupees (around $4.4 billion) in deals. Russian equipment made up around 75 percent of all of New Delhi’s weapons imports from 2004 to 2014.
However, these statistics cannot hide the fact that Russia has been steadily losing market share in India to Western suppliers as India is trying to diversify its arms portfolio and also sees some success at establishing an indigenous defense industry. U.S. defense contractor Boeing alone has won bids to supply the Indian military with ten C-17 Globemaster-III strategic airlift aircraft (worth $4.1 billion), eight P-8I maritime patrol aircraft (worth $2.1. billion), 22 AH-64E Apache, and 15 CH-47F Chinook helicopters (both helicopter deals have a combined worth of $2.5 billion).
© Copyright 2016 Indian Defence Review
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