India’s Grand Strategy to counter Chinese aggression

By Bharat Lather

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Fifty four years ago, on October 20, 1962, with the world’s terrified gaze fixed firmly on the U.S.-Soviet nuclear standoff in Cuba, China attacked India. Provoked by a territorial dispute and tensions over Tibet, the war was brief and China emerged victorious. Beijing declared a unilateral ceasefire on November 21, and the PLA withdrew to its pre-war positions.

India still sees China as a nationalist, aggressive power which seeks to dominate Asia and one that might once again strike unexpectedly, just as it did in 1962.

However, the war still casts a long shadow over Sino-Indian relations. While the conflict is long since over, the relations are still a mess. Thus to this day China continues to claim the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, while New Delhi lays claim to the Chinese-controlled Aksai Chin territory.

India still sees China as a nationalist, aggressive power which seeks to dominate Asia and one that might once again strike unexpectedly, just as it did in 1962. Naturally, China’s recent assertiveness on the border issue and the People’s Liberation Army’s huge military buildup bolster such fears.

Deploying Su-30MKI’s along LAC to counter Chinese aggression

The Indian Air Force is in the middle of shifting its focus from being a purely Pakistan-centric force, to one that will be capable of simultaneously meeting the twin threats posed by an insecure Pakistan and an increasingly belligerent China.

In fact, there has been more to the Indian build-up than just hardware acquisition as India undertakes a doctrinal shift in all three forces. The IAF, for example, is currently in the middle of tweaking its ORBAT (Order of Battle). This shift has involved reviving and expanding air bases close to the border with China border, including placing a squadron each of Sukhoi-30 MKI’s—currently India’s most advanced fighter jets—at two hitherto small bases at Tezpur in north-east India and Bareilly in the north.

…the threat of Chinese SAM’s systems continues to loom over IAF; the presence of Chinese long range SAM’s like – Hongqi-9, S-300PMU2 and upcoming S-400 would eventually threaten IAF aircraft within Indian airspace…

India’s north-eastern state of Arunachal Pradesh has also got its first fighter airbase from where fighter aircraft – Su-30MKI’s operations can be sustained. The landing ground at Passighat is described as advanced landing ground (ALG), which now has a fully paved runway, which got inaugurated on 19th August, 2016. It is about 100 kilometers from the Chinese border in the eastern sector.

This is India’s fifth ALG in Arunachal to be upgraded, paved and network-connected with the IAF’s existing data network. So far, ALGs at Ziro, Along, Mechuka and Walong had been reactivated. The reactivation includes facilities that will match other IAF bases. After opening Passighat, the ALG’s at Tuting and Tawang shall follow. These airfields dot various folds of the Himalayas in Arunachal and cover an east-west axis bring the IAF and Army’s rapid deployment capabilities much closer to the McMahon Line – the India-China boundary in this part of the country. Planes such as Super Hercules C-130J, Globemaster C-17 and AN-32 can land there, allowing rapid movement of troops, artillery guns, armored vehicles and tanks. India also plans to deploy at least a squadron of Sukhois at Nyoma. It is an air strip—about 25 kilometers from the Chinese border in the high altitude desert of Ladakh.

On the other side of McMahon Line, apart from building an incredible border infrastructure (airports/airbases, airstrips, road and rail network), the threat of Chinese SAM’s (Surface to Air Missile) systems continues to loom over IAF; the presence of Chinese long range SAM’s like – Hongqi-9 (200km), S-300PMU2 (200-300km) and upcoming S-400 (400km) would eventually threaten IAF aircrafts within Indian airspace from being shot down as well as in denying access to Chinese airspace.

The Indian Air Force has 200 Su-30MKIs air superiority fighters in service with another seventy-two on order.

How capable is India’s Su-30MKI Fighter?

An evolution of the Su-27 Flanker, the Su-30MKI has been extensively upgraded, and the result is a long-range, twin-engine fighter with powerful radar and amazing twelve hard points for the attachment of weapons. Thrust vectoring control and canards make the plane highly maneuverable, while the Zhuk active electronically scanned array radar makes it capable of engaging several targets at once.

The Su-30MKI’s air-to-air armament includes R-73 infrared guided missiles and R-77 and R-27 radar-guided missiles. Of particular interest is the upcoming Novator KS-172/ K-100 “AWACS killer” missile, capable of engaging targets at up to 300 to 400 kilometers. However, it is unclear when or even if the KS-172/K-100 missile will ever complete development and enter production. There are indications that the K-100 is likely a long-dormant project that might never see the light of day. Indeed, Moscow-based Barabanov said that the K-100 has likely been terminated which could be a major blow for Indian Su-30MKI up-gradation program. The story of Sukhois still doesn’t end here; IAF’s Su-30MKI’s continues to suffer from poor serviceability which happens to be around 60%.

Talking about targets on the ground, the Su-30MKI can employ laser-guided bombs, Kh-59 standoff land-attack missiles and the BrahMos missile. The Indian Air Force has 200 Su-30MKIs air superiority fighters in service with another seventy-two on order. A portion of the Su-30MKI force has been modified for the strategic reconnaissance role. Israeli-made sensor pods reportedly give the Indian Air Force the ability to look up to 300 kilometers into Pakistan (or China) simply by flying along the border.

…two ALGs at Daulat Beg Oldie and Nyoma have been re-activated. Planes such as C-130J, C-17 and AN-32 can land there, allowing rapid movement of troops, artillery guns, armored vehicles and tanks.

Beefing up military preparedness in the region of Ladakh

For the second time in its entire history, the Indian Army has moved over 100 T-72 tanks to the frontline in eastern Ladakh, located at 14,000 feet above sea level, six to eight months ago. Starting in 2014, two regiments of T-72 tanks have been moved to the valley. The third regiment is scheduled to arrive soon, forming a complete brigade.

It is a geo-strategically important region located along the so-called Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir. Almost five decades ago, in a desperate attempt to use tanks against the invading Chinese army, the Indian Mechanized Division had airdropped five tanks in Ladakh, which has witnessed frequent incursion attempts by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in recent years. Meanwhile, two advanced landing grounds (ALGs) at Daulat Beg Oldie and Nyoma have also been re-activated. Planes such as Super Hercules C-130J, Globemaster C-17 and AN-32 can land there, allowing rapid movement of troops, artillery guns, armored vehicles and tanks.

India’s pro-active strategy of deploying BrahMos missiles in Arunachal Pradesh

BrahMos is a joint Indian-Russian military project; BrahMos is a short-range supersonic cruise missile capable of being launched from land, air, and both surface and subsurface ships. BrahMos is one of the most advanced missiles in the world, capable of hitting targets on land and at sea with precision.

The steep-dive attack cruise missile (BrahMos) can hit enemy targets hidden in the shadows of mountains.

BrahMos was developed jointly by India’s Defence Research and Development Organization (DRDO) and Russia’s NPO Mashinostroyeniya. The name itself is a mash-up of two Indian and Russian rivers, the Brahmaputra and the Moskva. Brahmos represents a substantial missile threat to the People’s Liberation Army units as well as to their border infrastructure. The missile’s high speed and the range of 290km means that China’s air defenses on the ground will have mere seconds to respond to a BrahMos attack. It poses a serious threat to China’s Tibet and Yunnan provinces. The BrahMos isn’t just an anti-shipping weapon—it also can hit ground-based targets, and is ideal for precision attacks against fixed installations such as radars, command centers, airbases and enemy missile batteries.

The Cabinet Committee on Security, chaired by PM Narendra Modi, had cleared this fourth BrahMos regiment at a cost of over Rs 4,300 crore. The regiment consists of around 100 missiles, five mobile autonomous launchers on 12×12 heavy-duty trucks and a mobile command post. BrahMos could threaten some of this infrastructure. The supersonic BrahMos cruise missile has excellent dive attack capabilities, and fits in the Sino-Indian border where it’s mostly mountain topography, while the “low observable” nature and “penetration capabilities” of the 2.5-3 Mach-speed missiles posed a threat to China’s border areas. The steep-dive attack cruise missile can hit enemy targets hidden in the shadows of mountains.

Why Andaman and Nicobar Islands are important from the strategic point of view?

Andaman and Nicobar Islands have a long history attached to it. During the period of British Raj, these Islands were referred as “KAALA PAANI” (DESH-NIKALA), famously known for punishing Indian freedom fighters with extreme brutality, by a British jailer – David Barry. Apart from its history, its geography is bound to play an important role in India’s maritime strategy.

The Andaman and Nicobar Islands lie in this strategically important zone, meaning that India with its growing naval capabilities could play a significant role in controlling access.

In the Bay of Bengal, far removed from the mainland, lie the 572 islands of Andaman and Nicobar, which form India’s southeast border. While the northernmost part of the archipelago is only 22 nautical miles away from Myanmar, the southernmost point, called the Indira Point, is a mere 90 nautical miles from Indonesia. These Islands are located 1,200 kilometers (745 miles) away from the Indian mainland.

Among the nine major bottlenecks that control entry to this region are the Malacca Strait and the Six Degree Channel. The Andaman and Nicobar Islands lie in this strategically important zone, meaning that India with its growing naval capabilities could play a significant role in controlling access. Soon after coming to power last year, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi cleared a decade-old proposal to set up a radar station on an island lying a few miles from Coco Islands, which Myanmar has leased to China for the purpose of setting up a listening post. Reportedly, infrastructure development on Coco Islands was completed in short order, and besides a radar station the Chinese have also built an airstrip.

Furthermore, according to a recent report by a news channel “India News”, Su-30MKI’s, P-81 Neptune’s and Super Hercules C-130J’s have also been stationed in Andaman and Nicobar Islands, which would significantly bolster the capabilities of India away from its shores.

How India’s new mountain strike corps can act as deterrence?

Earlier in 2009, the Indian Army deployed two similar mountain divisions in the Arunachal Pradesh region to boost its defenses in the eastern sector. The new mountain strike corps, however, is expected to take the fight into Tibet and capture the Chinese territory there, should the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) invade Indian Territory. The decision to raise a new mountain strike corps has thus come in the wake of a growing realization in New Delhi of its steadily declining conventional deterrence.

The land dispute continues to prevent the full normalization of relations between India and China. In addition, the territorial dispute has led to dangerous militarization of the Sino-Indian border…

In recent years, India has tested and deployed several nuclear capable long-range land- and sea-based missiles to acquire a credible second-strike capability. Still, the NFU (No First Use) policy removes the threat of nuclear escalation in the event of conventional outbreak, leaving the nuclear doctrine bereft of any ability to deter Chinese forces from undertaking limited conventional attacks. The policy not only delinks nuclear weapons from conventional conflict but also places the burden of deterrence largely on conventional forces. A formidable conventional capability requires significant troop reinforcements, thus the new mountain strike corps comes into being.

Meanwhile, In July, 2016, the Indian Ministry of Defense has approved the purchase of 145 M777 Ultra Lightweight Howitzers from BAE Systems at a cost of about $750 million. The M777 allegedly is the world’s first 155 millimeter howitzer weighing less than 10,000 pounds (4,218 kilograms). Partly made of titanium, the gun can be airlifted swiftly to high-altitude terrain and is ideally suited for mountain warfare. The M777 has a firing range of up to 25 kilometers. The Indian Army plans to induct the new gun into its new 17 Mountain Strike Corps, which is to be stood up by 2021.

Can a border dispute between India and China lead to a war?

The land dispute continues to prevent the full normalization of relations between India and China. In addition, the territorial dispute has led to dangerous militarization of the Sino-Indian border, especially in disputed areas. Both sides have built transportation infrastructure, airstrips, and outposts and have deployed large numbers of troops to the border, including a Tibetan paramilitary special force employed by India’s intelligence service. The result has been frequent stand-offs and even occasional skirmishes between Indian and Chinese soldiers. Provoked by border incursions and patrolling in disputed areas, such incidents could any day escalate into a larger armed conflict.

Although China soundly beat India in the 1962 war, but since then India has come a long way. New Delhi has been stepping up modernization of its armed forces in order to counter Chinese assertive posture. Fortunately, the terrain on their mutual border makes a land war between the two a difficult—but not impossible—proposition. Armies of both India and China are now more evenly matched and the result could easily be a stalemate. While in such a case, the air-power of India and China must be analyzed.

China’s close relationship with India’s historical enemy, Pakistan, and its development of military base in Gwadar, Pakistan—seen as an attempt to encircle India—are another source of tension.

The power balance with the Chinese Air Force is the greatest worry for India. In the 1990s and early 2000s China bought 76 Su-27SK/UBK fighters and 100Su-30MKK/MK2 fighters from Russia. It quickly built another 105 Su-27SKplanes under Russian license, and then launched production of its own clones of these planes without bothering with the license. They came to be known as J-11B which included more advanced Chinese avionics and radars than even Russian Su-30’s. J-11B’s range is 3530km and a top speed of Mach 2.35 which has eventually outclassed India’s Su-30MKI’s.

Back in the 2000s, the IAF compensated for the Chinese Air Force’s greater numbers by superior technology (thanks primarily to the rapid implementation of the Su-30MKI program). But over the years, the PLAAF has started to look even more dangerous which it was never before. This is still not the end of the story, now China is about to start receiving the latest Russian Su-35 fighters. It is also working on its own quasi-5th generation fighter programs (J-20 and J-31), while its 4.5th Generation fighter – J-11D too is getting closer towards an operational status. As a result, the Chinese Air Force has surpassed the Indian Air Force in terms of technology, while also maintaining its impressive numerical superiority which happens to be more than three times larger than the size of IAF. India’s old defense procurement model, in which seven to 10 years is required merely to prepare a contract, has therefore become obsolete and unsustainable.

Conclusion

China’s close relationship with India’s historical enemy, Pakistan, and its development of military base in Gwadar, Pakistan—seen as an attempt to encircle India—are another source of tension. Assessing the current scenario of Sino-India border dispute; Beijing’s interest continues to increase in positioning Pakistan as a counterweight to India (so as to relieve pressure from its own front); eventually bringing the scenario of a two front war vis-à-vis India. As demonstrated with a recent purchase for 8 AIP powered submarines, Beijing is willing to offer Pakistan flexible support mechanisms – e.g. financing options – as a means to fulfill its defense needs.

… the PLA AF has surpassed the IAF in terms of technology, while also maintaining its impressive numerical superiority which happens to be more than three times larger than the size of IAF.

Over a decade, Chinese have provided numerous weapons which happen to be extremely formidable in nature, whether it is Chinese-Pakistani FC-1 planes, ZDK-03 AWACS planes, Zulfiqar class frigates or a two-layered land based surface-to-air missile (SAM) system – HQ-7 (20km), HQ-16 (40km).

Sino-Indian relations saw an upswing when Chinese President Xi Jinping visited India in 2014, and India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, returned the visit in 2015. Both leaders agreed to focus on improving bilateral relations through commerce and trade. China agreed to partner with India in accelerating its economic development by investing in various infrastructural projects and also setting up manufacturing facilities in India. It is to the credit of the leaders of both countries that they have kept the complex border disputes on the backburner by agreeing to negotiate to find a mutually acceptable solution.

However, lately relations took a sudden turn for the worse when China blocked India’s membership to the Nuclear Suppliers Group. As if this was not enough, China also blocked India’s move to add Masood Azhar, the leader of the Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammad terror group and the perpetrator of Mumbai attack which claimed 166 lives in 2008, to the UN proscribed terrorist list.