By Bharat Lather
26 Sep , 2016
After four years of difficult negotiations – as well as even a collapse of talks (over the contract for 126 aircraft) – the Indian Government has inked an $8.85 billion deal with France for 36 Dassault Rafale multi-role fighters. The first batch of fighters will be delivered to India by September 2019; the remainder will be received over the subsequent 30 months (By April 2022).
Dassault has guaranteed that the IAF’s Rafales will maintain a 75% availability rate. In other words, 27 of 36 fighter fleet will always be war-ready…
Rafale is a MMRCA (Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft) capable of carrying out all combat aviation missions: interception, ground support, in depth strikes, reconnaissance, anti-ship strikes and nuclear deterrence. It was inducted in French Navy in 2004 and Air Force in 2006. India-France Rafale deal includes infrastructure and support supplies; India specific modifications; additional weapons package; performance based logistics support.
Within the contract itself, $3.84 billion will be spent on the aircraft themselves and an additional $2 billion will be put towards the requisite maintenance and logistics infrastructure to operate the fighter. Dassault has also guaranteed that the Indian Air Force (IAF)’s Rafales will maintain a 75% availability rate. In other words, 27 of 36 fighter fleet will always be war-ready what is also called as the existing frontline fighter; the Sukhoi Su-30MKI has only 60% availability which means just over 100 out of 200 are war-ready.
$1.9 billion will be spent on IAF-specific customization, such as the integration of an Elbit helmet-mounted display and sight (HMD/S) system and other internal subsystems. A munitions package worth $800 million is also being acquired; this will include Meteor beyond-visual-range air-to-air missiles (150km) and SCALP (300km) air-launched cruise missiles. Other concessions include free training for nine IAF personnel, additional guarantee for 60 hours of usage of training aircraft for Indian pilots and six months of free weapons storage without charge.
The IAF has not procured any new fighter jets since the start of this century. The last one being Sukhoi Su-30MKI from Russia first ordered in mid 1990s and since then license produced in India by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL).
France cited that cost of man hours (labour) needed in India to produce a plane was 2.7 times higher due to lack of automation. This along would have meant additional 150 Cr per plane.
India’s decision to buy Rafales from France
It has been a long road for India and France getting to this point. The Dassault Rafale originally triumphed in 2012 as part of the competitive bidding process under the aegis of the now-defunct Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) tender. Dassault’s competitors included Lockheed Martin, Boeing, the Euro-fighter consortium, and Saab. As part of the MMRCA, Delhi was originally looking to fill the Indian Air Force’s requirement shortfall by purchasing 126 fighters.
Negotiations between Dassault and the Indian government continued for three years in the aftermath of the award of the MMRCA tender. New Delhi’s reservations on the price for the 126 fighters were immediate but, in 2014, when Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to office touting his ‘Make in India’ initiative, negotiations on the MMRCA appeared especially moribund over concerns that Delhi’s requirements for domestic assembly were asking too much of Dassault. The French manufacturer would not stand for India’s request to have 108 of the 126 fighters constructed by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) in India. France cited that cost of man hours (labour) needed in India to produce a plane was 2.7 times higher due to lack of automation. This along would have meant additional 150 Cr per plane.
The government-to-government approach to the Rafale purchase was an unforeseen development when Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and French President Francois Hollande unveiled it during Modi’s trip to Europe early last year. Under the deal, India decided to buy 36 fighters in fly-away condition from the French. New Delhi, it appeared, had given up on the MMRCA approach and on domestic assembly. The MMRCA, which had come to be known as the “mother of all defense deals” in the defense press, was shortly thereafter declared dead by Indian Defense Minister Manohar Parrikar.
Though it initially appeared that the government-to-government approach would greatly simplify the conclusion of the deal, an agreement between the French and Indian sides has taken 18 months to date, with both sides bogged down over the per-unit price, so-called offset clauses requiring France to invest a certain portion of the revenue in Indian goods and services, and other matters.
The Rafale does not possess as much range or payload as the Su-30MKI, but it will be easier to mobilize in response to a wartime or pre-wartime problem.
Any effusiveness over the signing of the deal for the purchase of the Rafales is likely to be temporary for the Indian Air Force, which continues to face important structural and long-term problems. For instance, over the past decade, the IAF has seen its force strength diminish by several squadrons, partly due to crashes involving its older MiG-21 fighters and the frontline aircraft, including six Sukhoi-30MKIs. Moreover, the IAF is also struggling with a shortage of pilots. Still, despite longer term problems, the conclusion of the Rafale saga is one of two important milestones for the IAF in 2016. The IAF also inducted its first indigenously developed Tejas Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) earlier this year. The single-engine light fighter is intended to replace India’s fleet of MiG-21s. Still, if you thought the Rafale story was a tale of dreams delayed and deferred, the LCA project was initiated in 1983.
How Rafales would be a boon to IAF?
From a physical standpoint, the Rafale strikes an enviable balance with range/radius, payload, operational availability (or holistic ease of maintenance and support), low-detect-ability/observability, and technology. The Rafale does not possess as much range or payload as the Su-30MKI, but it will be easier to mobilize in response to a wartime or pre-wartime problem. It is not as affordable as the Tejas, but the Rafale has the legs to engage in long-range strikes in enemy territory. This is the value of a solid medium-weight fighter, especially one that can swing into offensive and defensive mission profiles in short order. The Rafale will be a versatile fighter asset, one that the IAF will in all likelihood build into a sizable fleet. The commercial offset and defense industry concessions are valuable as well, but more so in a strategic and developmental sense, one with limited direct short-term operational impact (which is of primary concern to the PAF).
Role of Rafales for delivering a nuclear payload
France previously sold and supplied spare parts for India’s Mirage 2000s, which are the most important delivery platform for New Delhi’s nuclear weapons. India has come a long way since. It has upgraded its Mirages, possesses up to 120 nuclear warheads, has completed its first ballistic missile submarine and has three different (and more modern) kinds of Agni ballistic missile launchers already deployed, with longer-range iterations on the way.
The planes — specifically designed with nuclear weapons in mind — will give India a modestly more effective strike force than the aging one it has now.
But the submarine Arihant is more of a test-bed than a credible weapon system. India’s land-based launchers lack rigorous testing regimens and still suffer from reliability issues. At the same time, it is too noisy and could be easily detected through enemy’s anti-submarine frigates/planes. The most advanced operational launcher, the Agni-3, numbers fewer than 10 in service, according to the Federation of American Scientists.
Most Indian launchers are older Prithvis, which are short range and slow to prepare. New Delhi does not possess MIRVs — devastating clusters of nuclear warheads which ride together aboard a single missile, break apart and rain down on their targets. As of now it seems highly unlikely that India has the expertise to develop them (China is the only Asian country to have developed and successfully tested MIRV technology on its ICBM).
“Despite India’s considerable progress in developing credible ballistic missiles, its fighter-bombers still constitute the backbone of India’s operational nuclear strike force,” FAS analysts Hans Kristensen and Robert Norris wrote in a 2015 review. To be sure, the plane has a longer range, a lot more thrust and a greater payload capacity than the older Mirage 2000. So the planes — specifically designed with nuclear weapons in mind — will give India a modestly more effective strike force than the aging one it has now.
IAF shouldn’t be concerned about a two-front war scenario
Defense experts claim that IAF needs 90 more Rafales in the event of a two front war against Pakistan and China, simultaneously. India needs 42-45 fighter squadrons to counter a two-front war; but, a million dollar question still remains unanswered? Should India be really concerned about a two front war? It is therefore very important to analyze the current security situation of China.
China may have provided military hardware and nuclear technology to Pakistan, but looking at the current geopolitical reality as well as in the current volatile situation, it seems highly unlikely that China would like to open another front…
Today, the scenario is very critical, China is already involved in South China Sea and East China Sea disputes with Vietnam, Philippines, Japan etc; and USA being a major external superpower continues to have a permanent military presence in the Asia-Pacific region to counter assertive China militarily.
China may have provided military hardware and nuclear technology to Pakistan, but looking at the current geopolitical reality as well as in the current volatile situation, it seems highly unlikely that China would like to open another front that too against a formidable military power – India, in the event of any future Indo-Pak War. The Indo-Pak War of 1971 is the classic example of it. When the War broke out in December, 1971, the Soviets deployed mechanized forces and air-power on their borders with China and warned China of serious consequences if it militarily intervened. Eventually, Pakistan didn’t receive any military support from China and it turned out to be a complete and humiliating defeat at the hands of India.
Moreover, it is important to note that China became Pakistan’s major military ally soon after the Indo-Pak War of 1965 and started exporting T-54, T-55, T-59 tanks as well as F-6 jets to the PAF. It also went on to equip 3 infantry divisions of Pakistani army. Moreover, whether it was 1999 Kargil War, 2001-02 Indo-Pak military stand-off or the situation after 26/11 Mumbai terrorist attacks, Chinese never assured Pakistan of any military support nor it intervened militarily; at the same time there is no Mutual Defense Assistance agreement treaty between China and Pakistan; similar to one between USA and Japan.
Modernization of IAF
Talking about IAF’s modernization plan, 2 squadrons of Rafales shall be operational by April 2022, while the MoD (Ministry of Defence) has set a 2018 deadline for the first aircraft (Tejas Mark-1A) to be ready with a target to complete its production by 2022-23, eventually inducting 106 Tejas Mark-1A by that period of time. At the same time, there is an additional assembly line of Indian-made fighter jets. This could be a joint venture with a U.S. or European company setting up a plant in collaboration with an Indian partner. Moving on even further, a deadline for the completion of the production schedule of 272 Sukhoi Su-30MKI’s is 2020. The Sukhois were ordered in phases since 1997, the IAF wants 272 of these in its fleet by 2020, out of which 200 are operational with IAF. The agreement for the PAK-FA (FGFA) is expected to be inked when Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin meet next month.
PAF may have achieved quality in its Air Force through F-16s block 50/52/MLUs armed with AMRAAM, smart bombs etc, which continues to patrol Pakistan day and night, but the capability would be nullified once IAF starts receiving Rafales by 2019.
Conclusion
The Rafale boasts a very strong balance of range and payload, enabling it to effectively take on a wide range of air-to-air and air-to-surface mission roles which the IAF will exploit via the BVR (Beyond-Visual Range) Meteor (150km), cruise missile-SCALP (300km), and other munitions. It would allow IAF (Indian Air Force) to hit targets inside both Pakistan and Tibet from within its own airspace.
It took a decade, but the Indian Air Force will have its Rafales. The first jet will likely arrive in 2019. Defense experts say it will bring a much needed boost to India’s air force as it tries to renew its dwindling fleet of Russian MiG-21s ─ dubbed “Flying Coffins” because of their poor safety record. It is the biggest order for the Rafale after Egypt agreed to buy 24 of the jets in 2015 and Qatar purchased the same amount later that year. Currently being used for bombing missions over Syria and Iraq, the Rafale can fly distances of up to 3,800 kilometers (2,360 miles). It has also been deployed in the past for air strikes in Libya and Afghanistan.
On the hand, PAF may have achieved quality in its Air Force through F-16s block 50/52/MLUs armed with AMRAAM, smart bombs etc, which continues to patrol Pakistan day and night, but the capability would be nullified once IAF starts receiving Rafales by 2019. Even 36 Rafales would infuse the IAF with exceedingly solid air warfare capabilities vis-à-vis Pakistan. For India, the Rafale purchase was driven by several core objectives, which are plainly evident in the actual contract it had signed. The first objective was to acquire certain technologies, such as Western active electronically-scanned array (AESA) radar (i.e. Thales RBE2 AA) and next-generation air-to-air munitions (i.e. MBDA Meteor). Overall, the Rafale contract is certainly expensive, but with 50% of it coming back as a targeted stimulus for the Indian economy, New Delhi secured a worthwhile deal.
After failing to purchase subsidized F-16s block 50/52 from USA, Pakistan started looking for an alternative and planned to procure 15 F-16s from Jordan in order to maintain a sizable fleet of F-16s. But there was another significant development in the same month; there was an air defense system deal reportedly on the table in May 2016 between China and Pakistan. Specifics were not given, though one could speculate that this new deal was in reference to the Hongqi-9 (200km) long-range SAM system. In April, 2016, the Pakistani defense minister, Khawaja Asif, claimed that Pakistan was also exploring the possibility of acquiring the long range SAM systems, most probably in the wake of India-France Rafale deal; but only time will tell whether Pakistan succeeds or fails in procuring HQ-9 SAMs from China in the near future.
© Copyright 2016 Indian Defence Review
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