September 20, 2016
In an article in Dawn, published just hours before ‘Uri’ happened, Munir Akram, a former Pakistani ambassador to the UN, has written about the pressure being brought on Pakistan in Washington and said that, “Hopefully, the next US administration will carefully review the implications of sanctioning Pakistan – chaos in Afghanistan, end of counterterrorism, non-proliferation and arms control cooperation and a heightened danger of an India-Pakistan conflict – and come to the conclusion that coercion is not an option in the conduct of relations with Pakistan.” This should certainly go down in textbooks of international relations as a perfect example of blackmail by a rogue state.
Now that Pakistan has thrown the gauntlet by staging ‘Uri’, it is time to see how events pan out. The setting is exactly how all war games, whether conducted in India or abroad, involving the two nations envisage hostilities to commence – a major terrorist strike, after several smaller ones, that inflames public opinion to such an extent that enormous pressure is brought on Indian political leadership to ‘punish Pakistan.’
The timing is important. Jammu & Kashmir has been under curfew for a prolonged period and Pakistan is raising the issue in international fora. PM Nawaz Sharif is in New York and going to address the UN General Assembly where world leaders would be present. While Pakistan will blame Uri on non-state actors not under its control, any military riposte by India would be projected as action by a state against another. Even as diplomatic traffic burns the airwaves to calm things down, Indian intelligence agencies would be gathering evidence to link the Uri terrorists to Pakistan and its armed forces would be conveying available options to the government.
It is certain that any large scale military action by India would drive a reaction from Pakistan and the situation could well enlarge into war. But there are actions short of war available before India exercises this ultimate option.
India must use its standing of a responsible state and step up the diplomatic offensive to further isolate Pakistan in the international arena. The UNGA meeting, happening round the corner, is a God-send to shame it further. Some would say that Pakistan does not care, but that is not the reality as no nation can be on the diplomatic cross hairs of almost every other country.
Saarc members are already sidelining Pakistan and Afghanistan is reaching a daggers-drawn stage with it. The US has cancelled its grant for more F-16s and statements like those of Munir Akram would be red flags to the international community.
Economically, India is on the upswing and though there are many challenges to overcome, the primary requirement for any government is to maintain the economic trajectory without any impediment in this drive. Bilateral economic and trade barriers could be instituted to tighten the screw further. The yawning gap that is developing between India and Pakistan would be the right long term answer for it to see the futility of its present actions.
India, as a mature nation, cannot be seen as going to war when it has everything going for it economically and diplomatically. Which brings one to the question, is Munir Akram’s article also part of the big game being played by Pakistan? He threatens an India-Pakistan war if Pakistan is coerced into, of all things, mending its ways!
His Dawn piece clearly threatens withdrawal of support to non-proliferation (AQ Khan style?) and an end to counterterrorism cooperation – hinting at continued support to the Afghan Taliban and creating problems for the US military in Afghanistan. Should Pakistan’s bluff be called? This is the question that Pakistan has always posed for the Indian political leadership to take a call on.
India has taken solace in strategic restraint; post-Uri, its effect can be further accentuated by judicious use of the diplomatic and economic options. In the long term, these will pay greater dividends in terms of a positive trajectory of national development.
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