September 6, 2016
U.S. plans to hit ISIL before militants grab human shields
AL UDEID AIR BASE, Qatar — U.S. military commanders are drawing up plans to block Islamic State militants from using human shields to escape Mosul and other cities, as U.S.-backed ground forces prepare to expel them from their remaining strongholds in Iraq and Syria.
“I think we need to be prepared for them to try to find ways to get out,” Air Force Lt. Gen. Jeffrey L. Harrigian, commander in the Middle East, said in an interview at the air campaign's headquarters here. “That will be part of the planning that we're looking through right now.”
U.S. commanders have been frustrated by tactics the militants have used to avoid annihilation — fleeing just as their defenses are about to collapse, a central part of the militants' game plan.
Last month, hundreds of fighters escaped Manbij in northern Syria by placing civilians in a convoy of 500 vehicles. Hundreds of militants were killed in battle but several hundred others escaped with weapons and may have gone elsewhere to defend Islamic State territory. The Pentagon said it didn’t fire on the convoy for fear of hitting civilians.
Military planners said they will design surveillance and other intelligence to determine when militants will quit fighting and attempt to escape. That might allow U.S. aircraft to strike militants before they can grab civilians.
For example, they are watching for signs militant commanders use to order their fighters to flee, which might allow for pre-emptive strikes. Determining exactly when they retreat, however, has been complicated by the fact that Islamic State leaders have less control over their fighters after so many recent battle losses.
“They are going to know when (Iraq’s military) is getting closer and then it will be: Are they going to get told to stand and fight or are they going to look for ways out,” Harrigian said.
Islamic State tactics have followed a similar pattern in recent battles — the militants inflict as many casualties as they can before they ultimately flee advances by U.S.-backed Iraqi or Syrian opposition forces.
The 2015 battle to retake Ramadi in western Iraq lasted months and fighters filtered out of the city over time, as Iraqi forces closed in on them.
The recent battle for Fallujah, 35 miles west of Baghdad, went more quickly, catching the militants unprepared. They hastily organized a retreat, but were hammered by coalition airstrikes after drones determined there were no civilians accompanying them. Airstrikes in late June killed at least 348 militants and destroyed 200 vehicles in one of the biggest routs suffered by the militants, according to Pentagon figures.
In the Syrian city of Manbij, militants negotiated with U.S.-backed opposition forces before leaving with hundreds of civilians. “They probably learned from Fallujah what happens when they come out as a convoy of fighters,” Harrigian said.
Had they not grabbed civilians they would have presented a rich target from the air. “I would have liked to have taken on that convoy,” said Maj. Gen. Jay Silveria, deputy commander of U.S. Air Forces Central Command. “It was very nicely positioned on a long straight road.”
Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city, is far more complex than anything Iraqi forces have faced against the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, over the past two years.
About 6,000 militants are defending the city, where hundreds of thousands of civilians remain.
Iraqi forces typically surround a city and then slowly squeeze in, often leaving a corridor for civilians to flee. Iraq's military is developing plans to screen civilians as they leave to catch any militants escaping among the crowds.
“If you want to kill and capture the enemy, encirclement is the best option,” said Michael Knights, an analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Knights said Iraqi forces will probably not attempt to negotiate with the militants. “There’s no appetite for that,” he said.
Iraqi forces have already started operations around Mosul, cutting off key supply routes and establishing bases to support a final offensive into the city. Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said he hopes to launch the operation before the end of this year.
Army Gen. Joseph Votel, head of U.S. Central Command, said Iraqi forces appear to be on track to achieve that, but it will be a difficult fight.
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