By Bharat Lather
30 Jul , 2016
The results of the First Gulf War in 1991 had been an unpleasant jolt. Chinese military experts had confidently predicted heavy going for the American-led coalition against the battle-tested, Soviet equipped Iraqi armed forces. It was clear that the People’s Liberation Army was falling behind world military standards. For nearly thirty years, China has been on a military research tear, pouring enormous sums of money into weapons research and development. The arms embargo placed on the country after the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre put a halt to arms technology transfers, and suddenly Beijing was on its own.
Russia has always been a key element in modernizing China’s military might; whether it was after the disintegration of USSR or the latest being the Ukraine crisis…
The disintegration of the Former Soviet Union in 1991 came as a blessing for the PRC (People’s Republic of China). A year after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, a cash-strapped Kremlin began selling China a chunk of its vast military arsenal, including the pride of the Russian air force, the Sukhoi-27 fighter jets (including its license for manufacturing), IL-76 planes, S-300, TOR-M1 air-defense missile systems, Kilo-class submarines, new generation Russian-made tanks and artillery units, worth $20 billion to $30 billion dollars.
This situation began to turn as the Chinese economy erupted in the 1990s and 2000s. With access to funding and an increasingly innovative technology sector, the ground element of the PLA began to slim down and reform itself, becoming a modern military organization.
The country has made great strides since then, developing long-range missiles, its own military aviation industry, and cranking out prodigious numbers of naval vessels—with locally sourced weapons and electronics. Nevertheless, Russia has always been a key element in modernizing China’s military might; whether it was after the disintegration of USSR or the latest being the Ukraine crisis resulting in Western embargo against Russia which served as catalysts for the completion of arms sales negotiations for 24 Su-35 jets and 6 battalions of S-400 SAM’s. China receives some of the newest and most advanced weapons systems in the world, without the cost and hassle of research and development. Russia in turn gets much-needed hard currency.
S-400 would be a total game-changer for China, since; its neighborhood is crowded with its rivals consisting of different fighter jets…
Modernization of Chinese Air-Force
In the early 1990s, Beijing began a comprehensive modernization program to upgrade the PLA Air Force from a short-range, defensively oriented force with limited capabilities into a modern, multi-role force capable of projecting precision airpower beyond China’s borders, conducting air and missile defense and providing early warning. China’s J-10 and J-11 fighter jets are roughly equivalent in capability to an upgraded U.S. F-15 and F-16 fighter jets, respectively. China is standardizing the Chengdu J-10 multi-role fighter to make up the bulk of its fighter fleet. The J-10 is a decent fighter that ticks off all the right boxes for a fourth-generation aircraft. While, China’s most advanced flankers happens to be J-15 and J-16 that are equipped with Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radars which improve not only their air-to-air abilities but also allows them to target multiple precision guided munitions at the same time. They also incorporate radar-absorbent materials to reduce radar signature.
Alongside their J-10, J-11, J-15 and J-16 fighters, the Chinese also own Russian-built Su-27s and Su-30s and last year concluded the deal for the new Su-35’s from Russia.
The Su-35 is a versatile, highly capable aircraft that would offer significantly improved range and fuel capacity over China’s current fighters. The aircraft thus would strengthen China’s ability to conduct air superiority missions in the Taiwan Strait, East China Sea, and South China Sea as well as provide China with the opportunity to reverse engineer the fighter’s component parts, particularly its engines (AL-41), for integration into China’s current and future 5TH generation indigenous fighters. The Su-35’s most critical improvements over its predecessors (Su-27, 30, 33 and 34) are its hardware. It is equipped with a powerful L175M Khibiny electronic countermeasure system intended to distort radar waves and misdirect hostile missiles. This could significantly degrade attempts to target and hit the Russian imported Chinese flankers.
All of China’s fighters in 2000, with the potential exception of Russian imported Su-27s, were limited to within-visual-range missiles. China over the last 15 years also has acquired a number of sophisticated short and medium-range air-to-air missiles; precision-guided munitions including all-weather, satellite-guided bombs, anti-radiation missiles, and laser-guided bombs; and long-range, advanced air-launched land-attack cruise missiles and anti-ship cruise missiles.
PLAAF has also developed the kind of expertise needed to defeat its enemy’s air defense network by inducting J-16D for “Wild Weasel” missions.
In conjunction with China’s integrated air defense network S-300PMU2 (200-300km), HQ-9(200km), HQ-16 (40km), HQ-7(20km) and upcoming S-400 (400km), the Chinese Flankers as well as over 400 older fighters, such as J-7’s, (licensed copy of MiG-21s), can threaten not only to deny Chinese airspace to its adversaries, but also to punch back. Moreover, Chinese AWACS (Airborne warning and control system), particularly KJ-2000, which has got the world’s longest radar in range (470km) would further exacerbate the situation for its adversaries. The Chinese radar could track up to 100 targets at the same time and guide a dozen fighters in all-weather, day and night operations. Meanwhile, S-400 would be a total game-changer for China, since; its neighborhood is crowded with its rivals consisting of different fighter jets – Japanese F-15J Eagles, Taiwanese F-16s, Indian and Vietnamese Su-30 multi-role fighters. The long range (400km) as well as its speed (Mach 14) means that the S-400 system could threaten its adversaries over their own airspace; while it can hit its targets at altitudes as high as 31,000 meters.
Talking about Chinese transport aircraft – Xian Y-20 aircraft, a new strategic airlifter already under production has three times the cargo-carrying capacity of the U.S. Air Force’s C-130. Some of these new planes could be configured into tanker aircraft, allowing the Chinese to massively increase their reach and ability to project air power over longer distances. Meanwhile, PLAAF has also developed the kind of expertise needed to defeat its enemy’s air defense network by inducting J-16D for “Wild Weasel” missions. Wild Weasels are fighters designed to take on surface-to-air missile batteries in a SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defense) role. Armed with anti-radiation missiles (which lock on and target radars by their electronic emissions) and electronic intelligence and electronic warfare jammers, they are designed to engage and suppress defenses (mobile and fixed defenses), opening the way for traditional air attacks.
Chengdu J-20: China’s most ambitious aircraft project ever.
Talking about China’s most ambitious aviation project – Chengdu J-20, this is expected to become operational sometime between 2017 and 2018. The most obvious role for the 5th generation J-20 is as an air superiority fighter. The aircraft promises to be long-range, fast and stealthy. The J-20’s long range means the fighter can operate farther off China’s coast, intercepting attack and bomber aircraft including U.S. aircraft carrier’s F/A-18 fighters and B-1 and B-2 bombers. As a long-range fighter, the J-20 could also patrol disputed territories, particularly in support of China’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over East China Sea. China could also use the J-20 to target American support aircraft.
J-20 fighters could use PLAAF air bases in Tibet to conduct operations against India.
Airborne early warning aircraft such as the E-3 Sentry and E-2C Hawkeye and aerial refueling aircraft such as the KC-135 and KC-130 are key assets that allow American forces to operate at long ranges. J-20 fighters equipped with long-range air-to-air missiles (PL-15-200km) could attempt to shoot these aircraft down, crippling American and allied air forces. The aircraft is speculated to mount modern AESA (active electronically scanned array) radar and an electro-optical targeting system. These will provide precise targeting for weapons carried in the plane’s two large internal weapons bays. The two large internal weapons bays could conceivably carry a payload of air-to-air, land attack or anti-ship missiles.
J-20 fighters could use PLAAF air bases in Tibet to conduct operations against India. According to an article published by Deccan Herald on 5th May, 2015, there are six full-fledged airports/air bases in Tibet where some PLAAF squadrons of Su-27UBK and Su-30MKK are permanently stationed and have practiced operations in coordination with PLA ground forces. The above stated bases would likely be suitable for J-20 operations.
India should fear the J-20 because it represents a versatile fifth generation fighter that will be difficult to detect. The J-20 could use stealth to evade India’s air defense network and attack both air and land targets (surface-to-air missile batteries, air bases, radar stations and command and control targets.). The J-20’s stealthy capabilities and advanced avionics could give Chinese pilots a decisive edge. The J-20 would be the ideal solution for fending offs the enemy air forces—or sweeping the skies clear on the first day of an offensive air campaign. The J-20’s relatively long range would be helpful in rapidly repositioning the jets from one end of China to the other, from the Indian border to the East China Sea.
Modernization of Chinese Navy
The PLAN now possesses the largest number of vessels in Asia, with more than 300 surface ships, 68 submarines, amphibious ships, and patrol craft. Quality is improving even faster than quantity, with older vessels swapped for larger, multi-mission ships equipped with advanced anti-ship, anti-air, and anti-submarine weapons and sensors. As part of this trend toward bigger, better ships, China has likely begun construction of a larger Type 055 ‘destroyer’, properly considered a heavy “guided-missile cruiser.” Chinese Type 052D Red Aegis Air Defense Guided Missile Destroyers (GMD) constitutes a potential threat to US aircraft carrier as that best missile is supported by the best radar. The Type 052D is a true blue water navy warship. Its VLS (Vertical launch system) system is capable of launching a total of 64 missiles, which includes surface-to-air missiles (HHQ-9), anti-ship cruise missiles (YJ-18), anti-submarine missiles (CY-5), and land attack cruise missiles (CJ-10).
While China already has one carrier as part of its naval arsenal, the rebuilt Liaoning, this could be just the start of things to come.
While, China’s YJ-12 is perhaps China’s deadliest air launched anti-ship cruise missile. With a range over 400km, the missile travels at a speed of Mach 3.5 – 4, making it the fastest supersonic cruise missile of the world, to be ever produced. Once it flies from out of the horizon, the target ship has only less than 10 seconds to respond with last ditch defenses like Gatling cannons. The presence of Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning too cannot be overlooked. Liaoning is actively used in all its naval drills conducted in the South China Sea.
Currently, China’s Liaoning air wing includes twenty-four J-15 fighters, six Z-18F anti-submarine warfare helicopters, four Z-18J airborne early warning helicopters and a pair of Z-9C rescue helicopters. While China already has one carrier as part of its naval arsenal, the rebuilt Liaoning, this could be just the start of things to come. And then there is a weapon that seems more out of your latest Hollywood summer blockbuster than today’s armed forces. China has developed a missile what many have dubbed “carrier-killer” ballistic missile— DF-21D, the first ever deployed to any military in the world. The system is mobile, making its detection difficult. When launched, the missile is guided using advanced types of radar, satellites and other platforms to find its target. It has an advanced, maneuverable warhead (MARV) potentially capable of defeating U.S. and other allied missile-defense systems. It strikes its target at speeds of Mach ten and beyond. And even more frightening, is that it has been almost 10 years, since being displayed by China, and USA is yet to develop a system that can counter it.
Therefore, despite having 10 Nimitz class aircraft carriers, Americans are back in Philippines to use the air bases, due to a grave threat from DF-21D. Meanwhile, by adding formidable ASW planes (Shaanxi Y-8Q and Gaoxin-6) and twenty-six Type-056A Jiangdao-class corvettes, the PLAN has already nullified Japanese major conventional weapon (Soryu-class submarines) as well as Vietnamese Kilo-class submarines against it. PLAN’s incredible advancement in less than a decade in its ASW (anti-submarine warfare) capabilities has further made current and planned regional investment into submarines by China’s neighbors more of a risky proposition.
With its hydro-pneumatic suspension system, the AH-4 can be deployed in a firing position within three minutes and made ready to be moved in two minutes.
China’s military reforms
The first major highlight of China’s military reforms is to trim its military from 2.3 million to 2 million in order to improve its teeth-to-tail ratio. Therefore, the idea of China is to remake the PLA from a manpower intensive force to a smaller, technologically able and mobile force capable of combat beyond its geographical border/coast. The era in which China focused on ground power at the expense of sea and air power has decisively ended; creation of 5 theatre commands – Chengdu, Guangzhou, Nanjing, Beijing, Shenyang Theater commands clearly illustrates that. But, that does not mean Chinese PLA forces would be compromised. Instead, Xi Jinping is not leaving any stone unturned. For instance, The AH-4 lightweight gun howitzer has been specifically developed for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) rapid reaction forces. Given its relatively light weight of about four and a half tons, it can be airlifted by the PLA’s Changhe Z-18 medium transport helicopter and rapidly deployed even in mountainous terrain.
With its hydro-pneumatic suspension system, the AH-4 can be deployed in a firing position within three minutes and made ready to be moved in two minutes. The gun’s full crew consists of seven artillerymen. The maximum rate of fire is four rounds per minute. AH4 is also capable of firing its expanded family of 155 mm precision-guided munitions (PGMs). These include the latest 155 mm laser-guided projectile (LGP) GP6, which has a maximum range of 25 km with a first round hit probability of 90 percent and is capable of engaging stationary and moving targets. The AH-4 is purportedly very similar to the U.S.-made BAE Systems M777 155 mm/39 caliber ultra lightweight towed howitzers. According to the June 2016 issue of Modern Weaponry magazine, the AH-4 was already able to win its first export order, with a Middle Eastern country allegedly picking China’s new lightweight howitzer over BAE Systems’ M777.
Meanwhile, talking about its tanks, China has traditionally relied heavily in the development of its indigenous tank force on Russian license-built technology and know-how. But the recently introduced Chinese VT-4 MBT very much looks like an improved version of the T-90s. In fact, Thailand chose Chinese VT-4 over Russian T-90s, in order to modernize its armored capability.
The one thing the PLA lacks is real-world experience; it has not conducted live combat operations since the Sino-Vietnamese War, and has played no role in the major conflicts of this century.
Another major highlight of China’s military reforms is the creation of strategic support force (SSF). This Strategic Support Force would seem to constitute its own service, one which will control the key forces for “local wars under informationized conditions,” i.e., space and cyber forces. . It will comprise space, cyber, and electronic warfare units. The cyber force would consist of hackers focusing on attack and defense, the space forces would focus on reconnaissance and navigation satellites, and the electronic warfare force would focus on jamming and disrupting enemy radar and communications. Acting as a strategic deterrent in the cyber, space, and nuclear realms, the SSF is intended to strike at one of the most vulnerable points of modern militaries: communication networks. An ability to simultaneously deny access to space, cyber, and the electromagnetic spectrum would pose a formidable and credible deterrent threat, which not even Washington may be ready to overcome.
Reform has included massive equipment modernization projects, realistic training, and steps toward the professionalization of the force. While the PLA does not enjoy the same level of funding as the US Army, it does have access to nearly unlimited manpower, and it controls greater resources than almost any other army in the world. The one thing the PLA lacks is real-world experience; it has not conducted live combat operations since the Sino-Vietnamese War, and has played no role in the major conflicts of this century. Still, there is no reason to believe that existing trends in PLA modernization and reform will change direction in the next fifteen years. Meanwhile, China continues to conduct numerous military exercises with Russia which would significantly improve Chinese tactical and operational capabilities.
Dragon’s nuclear weapons and missile technology are roaring
China became a nuclear power on 16th October, 1964, while it also went on to detonate its hydrogen bomb in 1967; since then it has come a long way. The development of mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and a new class of ballistic missile submarines (Jin-class) are evidence that China’s nuclear arsenal is becoming increasingly sophisticated. Both DF-31 (7400km) and DF-31A/B (11200km) ICBM’s are believed to have incorporated many advanced technologies similar to current generation Russian ICBMs, including the use of penetration aids such as decoys, chaff and maneuverable reentry vehicles (MARVs) to complicate enemy’s missile warning and defense system; making their strike extremely potent. Despite fielding such the deadly ICBM’s, an ultimate nuclear fist happens to be DF-41, which is expected to be operational within this year. It is the solid fueled road/rail-mobile ICBM (12000-15000km) which could carry up to 10 multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs).
China has successfully conducted 7 flight tests of its hypersonic weapon (WU-14) from January 2014 – April 2016; that could carry either a conventional or nuclear warhead at a speed of Mach 10…
MIRVs is a highly sensitive, sophisticated and extremely dangerous technology which the Chinese have already attained and successfully tested on several occasions which would eventually allow China to deliver 10 warheads (nuclear and hydrogen) from just a single ICBM against different targets. This requires a Post-Boost Vehicle, or bus, (which China already possesses) that can maneuver in space to release hit separate targets. Some MIRVs can hit targets separated by over 1,500 kilometers.
But Beijing isn’t stopping there. China has successfully conducted 7 flight tests of its hypersonic weapon (WU-14) from January 2014 – April 2016; that could carry either a conventional or nuclear warhead at a speed of Mach 10 that means 10 times faster than the speed of sound which are impossible to be intercepted by any of the present missile defense systems. While its 4 Jin class nuclear submarines armed with “Julang-2” missiles (7400km) and a squadron of Xian H-6K bombers (3500km) armed with “changjian-10” nuclear capable cruise missiles (2500km) completes its nuclear triad. Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping is considering putting some of the nuclear capable ballistic missiles on “high alert.”
Conclusion
Chinese leaders have characterized modernization of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) as essential to achieving great power status and what Chinese President Xi Jinping calls the ‘China Dream’ of national rejuvenation. They portray a strong military as critical to advancing Chinese interests, preventing other countries from taking steps that would damage those interests, and ensuring that China can defend itself and its sovereignty claims. Thus motivated, the long-term, comprehensive modernization of the armed forces of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) entered a new phase in 2015 as China unveiled sweeping organizational reforms to overhaul the entire military structure. These reforms aim to strengthen the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) control over the military, enhance the PLA’s ability to conduct joint operations, and improve its ability to fight short-duration, high-intensity regional conflicts at greater distances from the Chinese mainland.
…due to a rapid advancement in science and technology, modern wars would be short and swift, which would further help China’s cause.
Beijing continues to put its money where its mouth is, with China’s defense budget indisputably the world’s second largest. While acknowledging the challenges inherent in such a calculation, the Pentagon estimates Beijing’s total military-related spending at over $180 billion. Exercises of increasing scale, jointness, complexity, and realism are part of an effort to make China’s military far more than the sum of its unevenly growing parts. While, its BeiDou Satellite System (BDS) would significantly improve Chinese intelligence capabilities of its area of interest as well as would provide global coverage by 2020.
Such a massive modernization—being undertaken across all branches of China’s armed forces—holds consequences for the wider Asia-Pacific region, especially in areas of competing territorial claims like the East and South China Seas. But it isn’t just America that should be worried when it comes to China’s rising military might. Indeed, thanks to geography, U.S. allies and partners face the greatest potential challenge. On the contrary, Chinese military planners enjoy the potent benefit of interior lines in almost any conceivable military scenario versus the United States. “Interior lines” is just a fancy way of saying that the theater of War would be at the doorstep of Chinese homeland, which would ultimately allow China to bring much more firepower to the fight much faster than the United States, at least in the initial phases of any military contest, which might actually tilt the balance of War in China’s favor. Moreover, due to a rapid advancement in science and technology, modern wars would be short and swift, which would further help China’s cause.
© Copyright 2016 Indian Defence Review
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