War between US and China would be regional, fought with conventional weapons

http://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_international/756057.html

Posted on : Aug.10,2016 

RAND corporation report analyzes possibility of war in the western Pacific between the two powersIf war were to break out between the US and China, it would be a regional war fought with conventional weapons in the western Pacific, a new report says. The report concludes that China would suffer considerable harm and the US would have the advantage but fail to achieve a decisive victory.

“As Chinese anti-access and area-denial (A2AD) capabilities improve, the United States can no longer be so certain that war [with China] would follow its plan and lead to decisive victory,” said the report, which was prepared by the RAND Corporation, an American think tank specializing in national defense. Anti-access and area-denial refers to China‘s military ability to prevent foes from reaching its coastal areas.

The report, titled “War with China: Thinking Through the Unthinkable,” was released on Aug. 5. It outlines scenarios for a war that could break out between the two countries between 2015 and 2025.

“Premeditated war between the United States and China is very unlikely, but the danger that a mishandled crisis could trigger hostilities cannot be ignored,” the report warned.

The fighting in a hypothetical war between China and the US “would start and remain in East Asia,” turning the Western Pacific into a “war zone,” the report predicted.

The report said that the war “would be waged mainly by ships on and beneath the sea, by aircraft and missiles of many sorts, and in space (against satellites) and cyberspace (against computer systems).”

It is very unlikely that nuclear weapons would be used. “Neither side would regard its losses as so serious [. . .] that it would run the risk of devastating nuclear retaliation by using nuclear weapons first,” the report says.http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1140.html

Estimated economic costs after one year of severe war

The report also suggested that such a war was “unlikely to involve large land combat.” China lacks the ability to attack the continental US, and the US would not countenance the risk of invading the Chinese mainland. Instead, China would use cyberwarfare to attack computer systems inside the US, while the US would do the same to China.

Whether the war is short or long, the US would be able to hit Chinese targets throughout the entire theater of combat, including on the Chinese mainland. If the war dragged on, China would face the destruction of most of its maritime assets, including its submarines, the report said.

“The current rate of advances in military technology, especially in Chinese A2AD and in cyberwar and ASAT [anti-satellite] capabilities of both sides, implies a potential for major change in the decade to come, which dictates examining 2025 cases distinct from 2015 cases,” the report said.

If war were to occur in 2025, there would be a smaller disparity in military losses between the two sides. While US losses would still be outnumbered by Chinese losses, they would be much greater than in 2015.

“Even as US military victory became less likely, Chinese victory would remain elusive. Because both sides would be able to continue to inflict severe losses, neither one would likely be willing to accept defeat,” the report says.

Ultimately, the war would be decided by non-military factors, which is to say by economic power. China’s economic losses would be devastating and permanent. An intense war lasting one year would reduce China‘s GDP by 25 or 35%, while the US would only lose 5 or 10% of its GDP.

Because of the US and China’s conventional counterforce capabilities-the ability to target and destroy enemy forces-both sides‘ current military forces would be exhausted after a few months of war. Therefore, both sides would compete to mobilize their industrial, technological and human resources, which would obviously be decided by economic and industrial capability.

The report analyzes the damage and effects of such a war under four scenarios based on length and intensity: brief and severe, long and severe, brief and mild, and long and mild.

If the war were brief and mild, both sides would suffer severe economic chaos, but Chinese losses would be greater. If the war was brief and severe, both sides would suffer major military losses and economic costs, but in this case as well China has more to lose. There would less of a gap in losses if the war were fought in 2025, however.

If the war were long and mild, economic losses would take a heavier toll on China. While domestic opposition would increase in both countries, the international response would favor the US.

If the war were long and severe, both sides would suffer grievous losses, and their military ability would be degraded. China would face a greater economic cost in all areas, including cyberspace and outer space.

Domestic instability would increase in China, and the international response would favor the US. If a long and severe war were to last for more than a year, Japan and other US allies in East Asia are likely to provide support to the US.

“War between the two countries could begin with devastating strikes; be hard to control; last months, if not years; have no winner; and inflict huge losses on both sides’ military forces,” the report concluded. “While [. . .] nonmilitary effects would fall hardest on China, they could also greatly harm the U.S. economy and the United States’ ability to meet challenges worldwide.”

In order to prevent such an eventuality, the report recommended, the US should “tighten up its system of civilian control [. . .] and expand communications with China in times of peace, crisis, and war.”