Aug. 11, 2016
The president needs to fix the economy to ensure support from the Russian people.
Summary
Recent political reshufflings in Russia highlight Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strategy, but also his constraints in governing the country. These moves have been his response to increasing protests in the regions outside the main cities, caused by poor economic conditions. Historically, regime change in Russia has been triggered by deteriorating economic and security conditions. Putin currently enjoys high approval ratings, but only because the population trusts him to come up with solutions to their problems.
Introduction
In 2017, Russia will mark the centennial of the October Revolution. In 2018, it will have a presidential election, in which President Vladimir Putin could run again. Putin is seen by most of the Western media as at least a dictator, if not as a czar, but dictatorships require absolute power. Russia’s current geopolitical and socio-economic reality has kept a true dictator from emerging, but Putin is the most important political figure and clearly a ruler. He needs to respond to the Russian people’s problems and keep the country running. Putin is using arrests, raids, resignations and political reshufflings to boost his position and appease the Russian public ahead of next month’s parliamentary elections. While Russia is facing many challenges, Putin's regime is under consolidation.
Russian President Vladimir Putin gives a speech during a rally and a concert in central Moscow on March 18, 2015, to mark one year since he signed off on the annexation of Crimea in a epochal shift that ruptured ties with Ukraine and the West. MAXIM SHIPENKOV/AFP/Getty Images
The raids, arrests, forced resignations and reshufflings during the last few months are related to Putin’s strategy. He is not in immediate danger of losing control, but he is trying to consolidate and bolster his power, while addressing the major concerns of Russian society. The moves also highlight Putin’s constraints. None of the measures taken indicate the Kremlin has a radical approach to solve the socio-economic problems.
Putin’s latest approval ratings are high – more than 80 percent of the population supports his actions. But the approval rate for regional governors has been below 50 percent since the end of 2014, according to Levada Center, an independent Russia-based polling organization. With the presidential election in 2018, Putin needs support in the Duma for the next two years. To get support in the Duma, he needs to make sure that his United Russia Party wins the September parliamentary elections.
In September 2015, a different Levada poll listed the management of the economy and the fight against corruption as major failures for Putin. So to hold on to power after 2018, he needs to tackle corruption and address the economic challenges.
Tackling Russia’s Economic Problems
Russia’s economic problems start with the economy’s structure. The country’s budget is heavily dependent on revenue from hydrocarbon exports. Low oil prices have had dramatic effects, especially since…
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The structural vulnerabilities exposed by the decline of oil prices
Two proposed programs for relaunching the Russian economy
Why discontent and labor protests are growing
How Putin intends to ensure control over the situation
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