Many Turkish Military Commanders Who Supported U.S.-Backed Rebels in Syria Have Been Purged and Are in Prison

Yaroslav Trofimov

August 4, 2016

Fallout From Turkey Coup Leaves Syria Rebels in the Lurch

Some of the most intense fighting in the five-year Syrian war erupted after last month’s failed Turkish coup—and it is probably no coincidence.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was an early and indispensable backer of the uprising against President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Since 2011, Turkey served as a rear base and supplier for a variety of Syrian rebel groups, including those on the Islamist fringe.

That support is now under threat. Many of the top Turkish military and intelligence officials involved in programs to assist the rebellion, including the commander of Turkey’s 2nd Army responsible for borders with Syria and Iraq, have been detained for alleged involvement in the July 15 putsch. 

“The generals who were leading the Turkey-Syria policy and the Turkish policy on Syrian Kurds are all in jail now, and we now see the crumbling of the Turkish security establishment,” said Gonul Tol, director of the Center for Turkish Studies at the Middle East Institute in Washington. “This makes Turkey very vulnerable and weak, and will make it less confrontational.”

Such a sea change in the regional balance of power appears to have had the immediate effect of emboldening Mr. Assad. Within days of the coup attempt, Mr. Assad’s forces, aided by Iran, Hezbollah and Syrian Kurdish militias, pushed tocomplete the encirclement of the rebel-held eastern half of Aleppo, Syria’s largest city.

The lifeline between eastern Aleppo and the rest of rebel-held northern Syria, Castello Road, had become increasingly perilous. But until recently, it could still be used to ferry supplies to some 300,000 people living in eastern Aleppo. Those people now face a humanitarian disaster.

In response, an unusually broad alliance of Syrian rebel factions launched one of the war’s biggest offensives, attempting to break the siege of Aleppo at a different point, in the city’s southwest. That alliance includes the Syria Conquest Front, formerly the Nusra Front. The group, in a bid to broaden its appeal, announced it was severing its ties with al Qaeda just before the offensive began last week.

For the Syrian rebels, the Aleppo offensive—which resulted in territorial gains but has yet to break the siege—is a now or never moment. While these groups still have the resources supplied by or via Turkey, they can’t be sure such assistance would continue in the future.

“What is happening now in Turkey is undermining any future offensives that the rebels could launch,” said Mohamed Hineidi, senior analyst at the Delma Institute think tank in Abu Dhabi.

It isn’t just that Turkey is distracted by the purges of its security and intelligence apparatus. More important, Mr. Erdogan appears to be fundamentally shifting the country’s foreign policy posture—something that could have direct implications for the Syrian conflict.

Turkey’s ties with the U.S., its North Atlantic Treaty Organization ally, have dramatically deteriorated since July 15, with Mr. Erdogan accusing Pennsylvania-based preacher Fethullah Gulen of organizing the coup attempt (something that Mr. Gulen has denied) and demanding his extradition.

Several Turkish officials have gone even further, alleging that the U.S. colluded with the putsch. President Barack Obama has strongly denied any involvement.

Mr. Erdogan’s relationship with Russia, the main sponsor of the Assad regime, has just as dramatically improved. Mr. Erdogan laid the groundwork before the attempted coup by apologizing for the November shooting down of a Russian warplane on the Syrian border.

Since then, the Turkish pilots involved in that incident have been detained for their alleged roles in the coup attempt, and Turkish officials have portrayed the entire episode as part of the Gulenist conspiracy. Mr. Erdogan is due to visit Russia for talks with President Vladimir Putin on Aug. 9, their first meeting since the warplane’s downing.

It isn’t clear whether Messrs. Putin and Erdogan could agree on how to move forward in Aleppo, and in Syria in general.

“Russia retains a sense of caution vis-à-vis Erdogan. Russia didn’t backtrack on its previous actions in Syria, and Russia and Turkey still back cardinally opposing sides in Syria,” said Yuri Barmin, a Middle East expert at the Russian International Affairs Council, a think tank affiliated with the Russian foreign ministry.

Others in the region, however, see a possible deal in the cards.

“Now that Turkey is moving away from NATO and Washington, Russia has an enormous interest in bringing Turkey into its fold,” said Lebanese parliament member Basem Shabb. “If Syria is important, Turkey is infinitely more important, and Russia isn’t going to sacrifice Turkey to please Assad, Hezbollah, or Iran.”