Kashmir- The Long Road Ahead

http://www.security-risks.com/security-trends-south-asia/jammu-kashmir/kashmir--the-long-road-ahead-6554.html

Rahul Bhonsle, Aug 13, 2016 

The All Party Meeting on Jammu and Kashmir is done and gone so to say on 12 August. There was much hope of a concrete initiative to diffuse the mood of drift in the Valley both political and security.

All parties spoke in one voice on pain for victims of violence in the Valley, the need for return to peace and calm, territorial sovereignty and role of Pakistan.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself expressed distress at the losses and said, “Like every Indian, I have been deeply hurt by the recent incidents in Jammu & Kashmir”.

He reassured commitment to peace and stability indicating, “We are committed to a permanent and peaceful solution to the issue of Jammu & Kashmir in accordance with the basic principles of the Constitution. We have an open mind and our doors are always open. We are committed to the welfare of every citizen of the entire State of Jammu & Kashmir. We have been following the path shown by Shri Atal Bihari Vajpayee ji to find a solution”.

A large part of the Prime Minister’s statement was also devoted to Pakistan’s role in instigating violence and the manner in which that country has dealt with its own militancy causing death and devastating lives.

The Prime Minister’s statement and briefing of the media by the Home and Finance Minister indicates the government seems to have concluded that the security forces will be able to control the situation hereafter and the cycle of protests can be broken.

Given that the Centre has possibly more diverse inputs from various agencies including the State government which is led by the People’s Democratic Party, this assessment may well be correct. That the Amarnath Yatra has gone unhindered except for brief interruption is one positive.

With the Army called in to carry out Highway Domination and Corridor Protection (HIDCOP) the State and Central police is being relieved to control the civilian space with additional forces moved in from other parts of the country.

However the antagonists in the Valley led by the Separatists have a different scheme. They seem to have rejected the deliberations of the All Party Meet even before it was held and on Thursday 11 August declared a programme of civil unrest, protests and bandhs through the week. This has only vitiated the mood before the Meet in Delhi and thus needs to be condemned

The main agenda of the Separatists now is to scuttle the government plan to hold Independence Day celebrations across the State on 15 August.

As was brought out earlier the task before the State government is now conduct of the Independence Day functions where disruptions could be anticipated not just in Srinagar but also in Doda, Kishtwar, Poonch and Rajauri.

Before this the Separatists also have the nefarious designs of so called, “celebrating,” Pakistan Independence Day on 14 August. This obviously is impermissible and would lead to clashes. The innocents may once again come in the harm’s way. We will have to wait and see.

Beyond these events, the State and the Separatists are likely to continue their quest to control the civil space.

People may get exhausted and start rejecting the calls by the Separatists, this will induce the State also to stop emplacing curfew and gradually normalcy may be restored.

When this phase will commence and how many innocents lose their lives remains to be seen, the much wanted human approach appears to be some way off.

At the end of this cycle is a political solution which will come through dialogue as the Prime Minister has stated leaving sufficient ambiguity to engage with even Separatists and Pakistan, The mood at present does not appear to be so, but this may change.

Pakistan will surely stir the plot which was evident with the attack on the Border Security Force (BSF) outpost in the Machil sector on 08 August which the BSF has claimed as a Border Action Team (BAT) strike from the other side.

More statements from Islamabad would be expected on 14 August expressing solidarity with Kashmir. Diplomatic offensive has already been launched to put India on the back foot, violence in the Valley will provide fuel to Pakistan’s narrative thus there is a vested interest in keeping the pot boiling.

Underlying these developments is the battle for the narrative in the Valley which in this round of violence has shifted from the previous era of human rights and issues such as removal of bunkers in civil areas and Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) to rejection of Indian sovereignty amongst a far wider section of the people than before.

It is almost back to 1990 when similar anti India slogans were heard across the Valley, it took a decade and a half of pain staking efforts to rebuild peace and stability are we at the same interjection today, apparently not but only if the narrative is retrieved at the earliest.

For this engagement with the people at large in the Valley and giving them the assurance of their special place in the Indian Constitution is necessary for a belief of the State wanting to deny the same is what is underlying the current mood of distress.

How quickly this is addressed will dictate return to normalcy and sustained peace in the Valley.