By MAX FISHER
AUG. 1, 2016
A pro-Russia rally in Yevpatoria, Crimea, in March 2014, shortly before the Russian annexation.CreditSergey Ponomarev for The New York Times
WASHINGTON — Donald J. Trump’s statements on Russia tend to follow a pattern. He will say something in support of the country, praising its leader or promising to realign some aspect of American policy to its benefit. Foreign policy experts will express outrage, and Mr. Trump, ever defiant, will refuse to budge.
But on Monday, he found a Russian policy he could not support: the country’s aggression against Ukraine, including its 2014 annexation of Crimea.
It began on Sunday, when Mr. Trump said of President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, “He’s not going into Ukraine, O.K., just so you understand.”
When pressed, he added: “O.K., well, he’s there in a certain way. But I’m not there.”
The muddled comments left analysts to guess at Mr. Trump’s meaning. Given his record of defending Russia, it seemed possible he was toeing the Kremlin line on Ukraine.
But on Monday, Mr. Trump said he had meant that, if he became president, his leadership would deter Russia from further meddling, a position consistent with his past statements.
That he for once backed out of a controversy, rather than embracing it, underscores how much Russia’s actions in Ukraine outraged world leaders: Even Mr. Trump, who has repeatedly stated his desire to work with Russia, will not defend them.
Donald J. Trump and Vladimir V. Putin have exchanged many compliments over the past year. We looked at the basis of the mutual respect between the two men who have never met. By NATALIA V. OSIPOVA and STEVEN LEE MYERS on Publish DateJuly 27, 2016.Photo by From left; Todd Heisler/The New York Times, Yury Kochetkov/European Pressphoto Agency. Watch in Times Video »
What happened in Crimea
Russia’s interference in Ukraine began in February 2014, after Ukrainian protesters toppled the pro-Kremlin president.
With Ukraine in chaos, Russia deployed a small number of special forces out of uniform to the Crimean Peninsula. The Russian state news mediablanketed the region with false reports that Ukrainian neo-Nazis were coming to cleanse Crimea of ethnic Russians, who are a majority there. Local pro-Kremlin groups agitated to secede to Russia.
The Russian forces, posing as local self-defense militias, seized key buildings and transit points, putting the region under an unannounced Russian occupation. A few days later, Mr. Putin sent in regular troops to restore order, as he described it. Crimea held an unmonitored referendum on leaving Ukraine to join Russia, which formally annexed the territory in March. Only a month later did Mr. Putin acknowledge that the “militias” had been Russian troops.
The annexation set the tone for Russia’s continuing intervention in Ukraine, blending 21st-century “hybrid” warfare methods — disinformation, deniable proxy forces, cyberattacks — with imperial power politics more typical of the 19th century.
It was the first successful war of territorial conquest since 1976, when Morocco annexed part of the Spanish colonial territory now known as Western Sahara, and it was the only one in Europe since World War II. Russia violated one of the most central norms of the postwar global order — that states would no longer seize one another’s territory — horrifying world leaders who see that norm as crucial for upholding peace.
Mr. Trump may have been correct when he said, “The people of Crimea, from what I’ve heard, would rather be with Russia than where they were.” But the point is that such matters are, in this century, meant to be decided democratically, not by a military conquest shrouded in deception.
This may be why Mr. Trump, for all his praise of Mr. Putin, could not back him on Crimea.
The United States and the European Union placed severe sanctions on Russia to punish it for the annexation, but its meddling in Ukraine did not end.
Trump Calls for Better Ties with Russia
Donald J. Trump, speaking at a campaign rally in Columbus, Ohio, on Monday, said improved relations with Russia could help the United States defeat the Islamic State.By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS on Publish DateAugust 2, 2016. Photo by Mark Makela for The New York Times.
The continuing war
Within a few weeks, pro-Russian separatist rebels began seizing towns in southeastern Ukraine, which has close cultural and political ties to Russia. Mr. Putin armed the rebels, independent analysts and Western intelligence agencies concluded, setting off a full-blown war.
President Obama said if Russia was behind the hacking into emails of the Democratic National Committee, it would not “wildly swing” already tense relations between Washington and Moscow. By REUTERS on Publish DateAugust 2, 2016. Photo by Al Drago/The New York Times.
While it initially appeared that Mr. Putin might be tempted to repeat his Crimea strategy in eastern Ukraine, he instead demanded that the region be given special autonomy, which would preserve Russian influence there. He stationed troops along Ukraine’s borders, hinting that he might invade to “protect” the region’s Russian speakers if Ukrainian troops tried to restore order.
When Ukraine tried exactly that over the summer, the once ragtag separatist rebels were suddenly seen operating heavy weapons systems, including powerful surface-to-air missiles. On July 17, 2014, a Malaysia Airlines passenger jet was shot down over rebel-controlled territory in eastern Ukraine, killing all 283 people on board.
Western leaders and analysts, furious with what they saw as a reckless Russian policy of arming rebels with equipment they did not know how to use, pushed for Ukraine to retake the rebel-held territory once and for all.
Many people expected that the downing of the plane would so embarrass Moscow that it would have to drop its support for the rebels and agree to peace efforts. Instead, Russia deepened its involvement: Under the cover of an “aid convoy” into Ukraine, Russian troops, tanks and artillery streamed across the border, according to NATO officials.
Ukrainian troops captured young Russian men who said they were government troops ordered to invade, and Western intelligence agencies released satellite images showing what appeared to be a significant Russian invasion. Mr. Putin angrily denied that anything of the sort was occurring.
The Russian troops and tanks, having prevented Ukraine from retaking its territory, eventually receded. But the conflict has continued at a low boil ever since, sometimes eased temporarily by peace talks or cease-fires that never seem to go anywhere. Analysts suspect that Mr. Putin wants to maintain a “frozen conflict” to keep Ukraine, which has shifted to favor the West, weak and susceptible to Russian interference.
It shows the severity of this conflict, and the degree to which Moscow has appalled Western leaders, that Mr. Trump — for all his love of crossing the normal lines of political discourse — felt that defending it, even tacitly, would be going too far.
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