Gavin Fernando
AUGUST 3, 2016
AUGUST 3, 2016
AUSTRALIA could be about to send military assets into the South China Sea to spy on China and Russia.
The Chinese and Russian navies are set to hold drills designed to strengthen co-operation between the two countries next month.
They specifically said the drills were not aimed at raising tensions with any third parties.
“This is a routine exercise between the two armed forces, aimed at strengthening the developing China-Russia strategic cooperative partnership,” China’s Defense Ministry spokesman Yang Yujun told a news conference last week.
Fairfax Media understands Australia will be employing military personnel in the area to spy on China and Russia’s forces and collect vital information, which includes seeing how effectively they are cooperating together.
This comes at a time of heightened tensions, with an international tribunal including Australia rejecting Beijing’s maritime claims just weeks ago.
Just yesterday, China’s highest court implemented a worrying new rule as a warning to foreigners, saying anyone who entered contested areas of the South China Sea would be prosecuted.
So is Australia playing with fire on all this?
China and Russia aren’t exactly age-old friends. Hell, they were once rivals for leaderships of the communist world.
But the two countries have been working together in recent times to increase their security, economic and diplomatic relationship.
Why? To bring down the power and influence of the United States.
Both countries share a mutual distrust of the west, and share a common desire to shake up the global order.
China and Russia have been working together in recent times.Source:Getty Images
The two major powers often find common ground in blocking initiatives from the US and its allies on the UN Security Council, where they are both among the five veto-wielding permanent members.
They’ve both come under increasing pressure from the US in recent years, which has only contributed to their closer ties.
When an international tribunal rejected Beijing’s claim to the South China Sea, it counted Russia as one of the countries that backed its position.
Earlier this year, Fu Ying, spokeswoman for the National People’s Congress, said Chinese-Russian relations are currently “at their best stage in history”.
HOW DOES AUSTRALIA FIT INTO ALL THIS?
China isn’t too pleased with us at the moment.
Just last week, the country pronounced itself “very unsatisfied” with the actions of countries like Australia, warning of “serious measures” if global powers continue to oppose its development in the South China Sea.
A few days ago, a prominent state-run Chinese newspaper launched a scathing attack on Australia, threatening military action over the South China Sea dispute.
The Global Times editorial piece, entitled ‘‘Paper cat’ Australia will learn its lesson’, described Australia as a “delirious” country with “an inglorious history”.
It accused Australia of not only “trying to please the US”, but of intending “to suppress China so as to gain a bargaining chip for economic interests”.
The piece went on to make a direct threat to the nation, warning that if Australia physically involves itself in the South China Sea waters, our country will “be an ideal target for China to warn and strike”.
If we really are planning on ejecting ships and aircraft to spy on them, all this considered may raise alarm bells.
Australia could be employing military assets to spy on China and Russia next month.Source:Supplied
The good news, however, is that China probably isn’t as great a threat as we might think.
Dr Adam Locker, a security expert at Macquarie University, told news.com.au China is using the same aggressive rhetoric on countries we’re aligned with — Singapore, Japan, the Philippines, the United States — as it has been with us.
And if push comes to shove, we probably won’t be first in mind for them to lash out at.
“China needs us as much as we need them,” Dr Lockyer told news.com.au. “If they were going to make an example out of anybody, they might use one of the other countries that they don’t rely on as much for trade.
“(Australia’s presence) is probably a low-risk strategy at this stage. It’s doubtful the Chinese would intercept Australian aircraft or warship. They could, but they’d choose an easier target.
“There would be economic repercussions, because they need our resources as much as we want them to buy our resources.”
As far as Australia’s potential snooping in the South China Sea go, he said there will be nothing especially provocative about it.
“The US and other countries are already spying,” he explained. “All we’re doing is putting up with the other countries lined up against China. We probably wouldn’t make an aggressive move like trying to buzz their artificial islands.”
WHY CAN’T WE JUST KEEP OUT OF IT?
For the past 20 years, Australia has been trying to balance its alliance with the US with its mostly uninterrupted economic growth on the back of China.
Dr Lockyer said we’ve always been able to separate the two quite well, but it’s coming increasingly challenging these days.
However, he said as preferable as it may be, we can’t simply sit back and ignore the situation.
“It’s becoming increasingly difficult to do nothing,” he said. “Our military is just there to be a part of it without being too provocative. This is what we do. It’s a symbolic gesture. For the most part, we stand to do as little as we can get away with.”
So in other words, according to Dr Lockyer, we’re looking to make the smallest contribution we can get away with — while being part of the alliance against China’s territorial sea claims — without looking stingy. It’s all about balance.
Australia’s moves in the South China Sea don’t tend to be too provocative.Source:AFP
It’s unknown whether Australia would consider passing within 12 nautical miles of the Chinese islands, but that would be a much more provocative move. Dr Lockyer said it’s doubtful we would go that far — especially in comparison to other countries.
“There are other states involved that greater strategic interests in the South China Sea than we do,” he said. “Vietnam, Singapore, Malaysia, Taiwan, Japan... they’re all closer to the region.
“We can send a couple of aircraft up — one or two planes is not going to make any difference. If Australia is to send warships through the South China Sea, as they fairly routinely do, they won’t be muscling up to China too much, and if they did it would be part of a large coalition.”
In other words, any of Australia’s involvement will be pretty low-risk.
“But,” he said. “It could always go pear-shaped.”
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