This chart shows that Turkish exports to Russia started declining in 2013. This downward trajectory continued through the first half of 2016. Exports dropped 4 percent during this time due largely to Russian sanctions against Turkey that took effect on Jan. 1, 2016. The sanctions were a response to the November 2015 downing of a Russian fighter plane in Turkish airspace and primarily affected Turkish agricultural exports. Agricultural goods account for about 26 percent of Turkey’s exports to Russia. Total Turkish exports to Russia are worth $3.6 billion. Although Russia ranks only 11th among Turkey’s export destinations and accounts for only 2.5 percent of Turkey’s total exports, both countries are very significant to each other.
Geography has made Russia and Turkey rivals and they have different objectives in the Caucasus, Syria and beyond, but right now it is not in either country’s interest to engage in a conflict. This common interest to avoid conflict became blatantly clear on June 27 when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan issued an apology for shooting down the Russian fighter plane. The following day, Russia lifted the travel ban it had imposed on Turkey, reopening the latter's ailing tourism sector to 4.5 million Russian tourists. It also appears that, in the near future, more Russian sanctions on Turkey will be gradually lifted.
In response to the July 15 attempted coup in Turkey, Russian President Vladimir Putin personally called Erdoğan on July 17 to express his support for the Turkish government. Additionally, Erdoğan will meet with Putin in the first week of August, according to Anadolu Agency. This will be their first meeting in person since the June 28 apology. This adjustment in Ankara’s relationship with Moscow is just one of the issues that will be addressed in our upcoming Deep Dive on Turkey’s geopolitical standing following the coup attempt.
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