By Bharat Lather
Just half a century ago, the two nations were at the verge of starting a nuclear war. Going back even further, in the early 20th century, both countries were in the middle of the communist revolutions. National leaders Joseph Stalin and Mao Zedong came out as leader of the respective countries, following communist revolutions.
Xi sent a powerful signal about his foreign policy vision by choosing Russia as the destination for his first trip abroad as China’s president.
An ideology of communism was adopted by China and Former Soviet Union (Presently Russia) which laid the foundation of their respective ties with one another. Their relations were soon tested In November 1950, when China and the United States went to war. Thirty-six thousand Americans died, along with upwards of a quarter million Chinese, and half a million or more Koreans. The opening Chinese offensive, launched from deep within North Korea, took U.S. forces by complete operational surprise. The U.S.-led United Nations offensive into North Korea was thrown back, with the U.S. Army handed its worst defeat since the American Civil War. As the Korean War was long drawn Joseph Stalin approved an aerial support for the PLA (People’s Liberation Army) which dramatically reduced the chances of U.S. army’s occupation of North Korea for the second time.
However, after the death of Stalin in 1953, his successor Nikita Khrushchev, denounced his repressive regime and policy (De-Stalinization) and created a rift between USSR and China. At the peak of Cold War tension, the two almost went to a war, most probably a nuclear war; along the Ussuri River line in 1969 which was claimed by both of them. But, when the Cold War ended in 1990, following the disintegration of Soviet Union in 1991, so did the de-facto alliance between USA and China against Soviet Union; eventually resulting in an establishment of Russia, diplomatic tensions finally waned.
As the two countries expanded economically they found it mutually beneficial to pursue a constructive partnership. The success of this new alliance led to the 2001 treaty of friendship and military cooperation. This alliance between world superpowers has served to make both countries more powerful. Russia and China signed a landmark deal on July 21, 2008 officially ending all outstanding territorial disputes between the two countries. Under the agreement, Russia handed over Yinlong Island and half of the Heixiazi Island at the confluence the of Amur and Ussuri rivers, clearing the way for closer strategic and economic relations with China. The deal flowed from an initial agreement signed in 2004 by former Russian President Vladimir Putin that proposed a 50-50 division of the disputed islands. While Russia returns Yinlong and half of Heixiazi, totaling 174 square kilometers, China gave up its claim to another half of Heixiazi.
Working alone, neither China nor Russia has enough international clout to block US initiatives, but together they form a powerful clique.
Russia has the world’s 2nd strongest military in the world. They have more nuclear weapons then even USA. According to a recent report by SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute), Russia has 7290 nuclear warheads, while the United States has 7000 nuclear warheads, respectively. Meanwhile, China has one of the largest economies and is the most populous nation. Both, China and Russia spent a lot on their militaries in order to counter USA. On one hand, Russia has one of the world’s best military technologies, while on the other hand, China has the world’s largest military and if this military is supplied with cutting-edge military technology or is equipped by Russian military weapons, one can imagine that Chinese are definitely on the verge of reaching invincibility.
New Chinese leadership
While not allied to either USA or China, Russia has always emerged as a disruptive factor in US-China relations. By the 1970s relations were so strained that the US saw an opportunity to sway China on its side, breaking apart Asia’s two great communist powers. There are several factors that lend themselves to a China-Russia rivalry, including the potential for border disputes as well as growing battle for influence in the Central Asia. However, currently China-Russia ties are enjoying one of their warm periods, particularly since Xi Jinping assumed office.
Xi sent a powerful signal about his foreign policy vision by choosing Russia as the destination for his first trip abroad as China’s president. The new emphases on Russia-China ties are definitely part of China’s strategy for counter-acting the US rebalance to Asia. While, China and Russia are not natural allies, they both share an interest in keeping US influence in Asia at a minimum. In fact both countries are committed to reshaping a new world order; whether through BRICS or SCO.
Change in Russian approach towards China has been adopted in light of the deterioration of the relationship with NATO following the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014.
To counter US moves, China and Russia formed the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in 2001 with the Central Asian states of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. The SCO lobbied for the removal of US bases in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan in 2005. In addition to cooperation over military technology, Russia and China have held joint military exercises in recent years, leading to speculation that the SCO may one day become a formal security pact. Working alone, neither China nor Russia has enough international clout to block US initiatives, but together they form a powerful clique.
Ukraine crisis
Change in Russian approach towards China has been adopted in light of the deterioration of the relationship with NATO following the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014. Political relations have become ever closer. Most symbolically, Chinese President Xi Jinping traveled to Moscow in May 2015 to participate in Russia’s Victory Day parade, an event that was shunned by most Western leaders. In return, Russian President Vladimir Putin was present in Beijing in September 2015 to join Chinese celebrations of the 70th anniversary of victory over Japan. The Russian leader has even begun to describe China as Russia’s “natural ally” and proclaimed that relations are now at their “best in all their many centuries of history”.
As the US sought to win international support for its position on the Crimean referendum, its diplomats placed an enormous pressure on China. The Obama’s administration major strategy for dealing with Ukraine crisis was to isolate Russia internationally and put in place sanctions and other punitive measures. China’s cooperation would be vital, but it was always clear that Beijing was not going to cooperate to an extent the US would like. While the West was up in arms about Russia’s interference in Ukraine, Xi Jinping travelled to Sochi for the opening ceremonies of 2014 Winter Olympics and a cordial meeting with Putin. The China-Russia gas deal was also sealed in the mindset of Ukraine crisis, another strong signal that China’s cooperation with Russia had not been affected by Ukraine.
Closer ties between Russia and China have been a cause of concern in the US.
Closer ties between Russia and China have been a cause of concern in the US. Several analysts believe that China and Russia are banding together with the specific goal of forming an anti-US bloc. There’s even been a talk that the world is on the verge of a new Cold War between the US-led West and a de-facto China-Russia alliance. Initial signs of such a division might be found in the recently agreed Trans-Pacific Partnership, which, although including several countries in the region, excludes both China and Russia. Moreover, both China and Russia stand united against the deployment of THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Air Defense) by USA in South Korea.
Defense ties
In addition to working together on international issues, China and Russia have been expanding their military cooperation. The two militaries have held a number of joint military exercises, since 2012. China and Russia have steadily increased the number of military exercises over the past year. In 2015, both countries held naval and amphibious assault exercises in the Sea of Japan, a smaller naval drill in the Mediterranean, among a number of other bilateral military exchanges. Both countries have also participated in trilateral and multilateral exercises, for example, under the umbrella of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Joint military exercises still provide several benefits to both countries; in particular for the Chinese People’s Liberation Army, Navy, and Air Force given that China has not fought a full-scale war in decades. Next to serving a confidence building function, the drills help improve Chinese and Russian tactical and operational capabilities.
Another notable joint exercise was conducted in May, 2016 – computer-assisted missile defense drill. The exercise will aim to practice combined operations of Russian and Chinese air and missile defense task forces to provide protection from accidental and provocative attacks of ballistic and cruise missiles.
Major defense sales
Russia has also stepped up its defense sales to China, most notably an approval to provide Su-35 fighter jets to Beijing. Russian sales of advanced weapons to China, including modern combat aircraft, are not new. Indeed, throughout the post-Soviet period, China has been one of Russia’s most important customers for arms exports. The Chinese have been purchasing systems, such as the Su-27 fighter jets, and advanced surface-to-air missiles (S-300), from Russia for over a decade.
Despite intellectual property concerns (reverse-engineering), in April, 2015, Russia agreed to sell 6 battalions of S-400 missile systems to China – a deal worth $3 billion.
The Su-35 fighter aircraft deal between Russia and China includes not only the supply of 24 jets to the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) for a total of $2 billion but also the delivery of ground support equipment and reserve aircraft engines. Chinese quest for Su-35 is driven by its necessity for a reliable engine, particularly for its 5th generation fighter aircrafts – Chengdu J-20 and Shenyang J-31. Aircraft’s engine technology is an area in which China still lags behind but they are spending huge amounts to catch up. Installing WS-10A engines in its frontline fighter aircraft i.e. Shenyang J-11B, clearly illustrates that. The Chinese are no-more dependent upon Russian AL-31 engines for its 4th generation fighter aircrafts. AL-41 engines of Su-35 jets might well help Chinese engineers to copy it and produce its indigenously built WS-15 engines before 2020.
In the past decade, with an exception of S-300-PMU2, Russia has not sold its most modern military technology to China. One of the key reasons for the policy shift is financial constraints within Russia. The S-400 missile defense systems deal, which was officially announced a year ago, clearly illustrates this. Chinese have always been interested in procuring long range SAM’s from Russia, since early 1990s. The S-300-PMU1 air defense missiles were first introduced into China in 1993; which could simultaneously engage only 6 targets and guide 12 missiles.
In March, 2010, China signed a contract to purchase the last batch of S-300-PMU2’s from Russia. From 2007-09, Russians have supplied S-300-PMU2’s in bulk to equip 15 Chinese battalions of the S-300PMU-2 air defense missile systems. The S-300PMU2 is an upgraded version of S-300PMU1 SAM system offering better performance against aerodynamic and ballistic targets. The 83M6E and 83M6E2 combat management centers are intended to link up to six S-300PMU2 (also PMU1) systems into a single air defense system providing a six-fold combined engagement capability. Using the combat management post six PMU2s (Mach 9) can engage up to 36 targets simultaneously while providing guidance for up to 72 missiles – two missiles per target ensuring 100% kill. Moreover, It uses a 30N6E1 (Tomb Stone) radar which has a range of 200-300 km and can simultaneously detect 100 targets.
Ukraine crisis and the Western embargo against Russia have served as catalysts for the completion of arms sales negotiations.
Despite intellectual property concerns (reverse-engineering), in April, 2015, Russia agreed to sell 6 battalions of S-400 missile systems to China – a deal worth $3 billion. Ukraine crisis and the Western embargo against Russia have served as catalysts for the completion of arms sales negotiations. Both Su-35 fighter jets and S-400 SAM’s would bolster China’s defense capabilities beyond its borders. China’s neighbors will be concerned about the latest 2 major Sino-Russian arms deal, which can significantly tilt the balance of power in China’s favor.
Su-35 fighter jets will add considerably to the current capabilities of the Chinese air force, thereby strengthening Beijing’s ability to project power in the East and South China Seas. A multirole fighter bomber, the Su-35 is superior to any operational Chinese fighter. Avionics, propulsion and weapons systems are all superior, as are the NPO Saturn AL-41 engines. Radar-absorbent materials are used in the construction of the airframe. The plane is a flying arsenal, featuring a stunning 14 hard-points for carrying weapons, jammers, fuel tanks and added sensors. During an air battle, the Su-35 would launch its missiles from high supersonic speeds around Mach 1.5 at altitudes greater than 45,000 ft. The Su-35 will form the sharp end of the Chinese Air Force until 5th Generation Chengdu J-20 gets operational.
While, S-400 missile system’s 400-kilometer-range will, for the first time, allow China to strike any aerial target on the island of Taiwan, in addition to shooting down air targets as far as New Delhi, Kolkata, Hanoi and Seoul. The Yellow Sea and China’s new air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in the East China Sea will also be protected. The most likely deployment for PLA S-400s is against Taiwan, where the system will be able to detect and engage high altitude targets above the island nation. Other possibilities for deployment include Zhejiang, opposite Japan and the Senkaku Islands, Tibet and Xinjiang opposite India, Guangxi opposite Vietnam, and Yunnan opposite Myanmar.
Moreover, it is not just about its range, the missiles of S-400 travel at a speed of Mach-14 i.e. 14 times faster than the speed of sound. In each case, the long range of the S-400 means the system could threaten adversaries over their own airspace. While its 91N6E “Big Bird” AESA radar of S-400 can detect high altitude targets like ballistic missiles at distances of up to 600km; while it can hit targets at altitudes as high as 31,000 meters.
China and Russia have also tightened their cooperation in the energy field, where their interests mesh well.
Chinese analysts believe that the increased emphasis on military cooperation is a sign of deeper trust, and possibly even a signal that an unofficial alliance between Beijing and Moscow is developing. To Chinese scholars, closer ties with Russia are directly motivated by worries about America’s influence in Asia. China is attempting to use closer ties with Russia to counter US moves to shore up relations with other regional players. What is happening today is that with the help of Russian assistance, particularly in military hardware, since 1991, China has gathered enough power and is becoming powerful enough to match (or even surpass) America’s ability to project power throughout much of Asia.
Economic collaboration
China and Russia have also tightened their cooperation in the energy field, where their interests mesh well. Russia is a major energy exporter, while China a major importer, and is always seeking to diversify its energy sources. Their complementary interests have led to a number of major economic deals. In 2013, an agreement was reached on a $270 billion deal for Rosneft (Russia’s state oil company) to provide China with 364 million tons of oil over the next 25 years. The next year, China and Russia finalized a $400 billion, 30 year natural gas deal.
In May 2014, Russia’s Gazprom and the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) signed a 30-year framework deal to deliver 38 billion cubic meters of gas to China annually using the eastern route. The construction of the western pipeline named the Power of Siberia–2, that’ll deliver another 30 billion cubic meters of gas to China. The $400 billion “Power of Siberia” gas pipeline project is progressing as expected and its development has been closely monitored by Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. The Power of Siberia gas pipeline is due to become fully operational in 2018 and will link with the Chinese gas infrastructure already in place. Russian has been able to support their economy with increase business ties to China; while China’s quest for energy resources is met by Russia.
The Chinese market is still important to Russia, accounting for a $5 billion of all Russian sales in 2015. But the problem for Moscow is that Beijing only buys a small amount of a weapons system and then copies it in order to produce an upgraded version of it (HQ-9 and J-11B).
Future of China-Russia relations
Vladimir Putin described China as Russia’s “natural ally” and proclaimed that relations are now at their “best in all their many centuries of history”. However, there are some strains in China-Russia relations which can be found in defense ties, where Russia has been bolstering cooperation with China’s rival India, already World’s largest weapons importer.
Moscow is much more comfortable working with India than with the Chinese industry for a variety of reasons, including concerns about Chinese attempts to steal Russian intellectual property. ‘Brahmos’ cruise missile is an exclusive example of India-Russia joint collaboration. Both, Russia and China remain suspicious of one another; China is worried about Russia’s defense linkages with India and Vietnam, both of whom are China’s rivals. Russia continues to sell Kilo-class submarines, Su-27 and Su-30 MKI fighter jets to Vietnam, despite China’s protests.
The Chinese market is still important to Russia, accounting for a $5 billion of all Russian sales in 2015. But the problem for Moscow is that Beijing only buys a small amount of a weapons system and then copies it in order to produce an upgraded version of it (HQ-9 and J-11B). It remains to be seen what impact a decline in Chinese orders would have on Russia’s defense industry. The industrial-military complex of China has already attained maturity and continues to produce one of the most lethal weapons of the world; although they still lag behind in jet-engine technology. The sale of Russian weapons to China has always been a win-win for the two countries. China receives some of the newest and most advanced weapons systems in the world, without the cost and hassle of research and development. Russia in turn gets much-needed hard currency. As long as Russia has something to sell, this relationship won’t change any time soon; but by sealing 2 major arms deal (Su-35 and S-400), China making any new large orders over the coming decade seems very unlikely.
…in the wake of Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, China is concerned about potential border conflict with its northern neighbor- Russia.
Apart from defense strains, they still compete over influence in Central Asia. “Beijing’s ‘One Belt, One Road’ initiative and the Russian-initiated Eurasian Economic Union are not compatible in the long term. China’s rapid penetration into Central Asia to secure oil and gas pose a potential challenge to Russian energy corporations, which are seeking to monopolize the region’s resources.
Also in the wake of Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, China is concerned about potential border conflict with its northern neighbor- Russia. What is now bringing the two countries closer together is the common concern in ruling circles at the threat posed by US militarism. But if the strategic partnership no longer serves their national interests, the two capitalist powers could quickly become hostile to each other and the “settled” territorial disputes could again flare up. All in all, they have quite a few minor, but potentially serious conflicts, which undermine complete trust in one another. Relations between the two are currently fairly good, and war between the two countries is seemingly unlikely. That being said, the two have had their share of territorial disputes, and at this point it is probably not a good idea to consider any dispute with China dormant. Their cooperation to billion dollar energy deals, trade, major defense sales and joint military drills has the world wondering, what the future holds for Sino-Russia alliance.
© Copyright 2016 Indian Defence Review
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