By Martand Jha
30 Jun , 2016
If Pakistan is a reason to worry, India’s other neighbours are no less in giving headaches to the policy makers here. Apart from Pakistan, the one country with which India has a long time problematic relationship is China. To add to India’s problems, Pakistan is a major ally of China and combined together they pose a great security threat to India.
Indo-Pak relations have been a roller-coaster ride in the past 2 years under the present dispensation. Clearly, the Pakistan problem still looms very high and the Indian government knows it too but it is shying to accept its diplomatic failures.
Even before the present government came into power under the leadership of Narendra Modi, India’s foreign policy was a much talked about subject within the Bhartiya Janta Party which was confident of an unprecedented victory in the 16th Lok Sabha elections.
As things started to unfold, soon it became clear that the new government would be of an absolute majority after a gap of 30 long years. Under the media frenzy and an unparalleled support of Indian public, Narendra Modi took his oath as the 14th Prime Minister of India at the sprawling forecourt lawns of Rashtrapati Bhawan.
It’s a truly special occasion whenever a Prime Minister of the largest democracy of the world i.e India, takes an oath in the swearing-in-ceremony, but this time the situation was much more bigger and magnanimous. The reason was that the heads of governments of all the South-Asian states were invited for the ceremony.
Except Bangladesh, all the heads of SAARC countries attended the event, while the Speaker of Bangladesh’s Parliament came to grace the event with her presence on the behalf of Sheikh Hasina (Prime Minister of Bangladesh). This was the first big move by the Modi Government to improve ties with India’s immediate neighbours.
This move was hailed by present and former diplomats, the members of security establishments, people in academia, civil society, media and the public at large. It showed that the government was acutely aware of the direct, deep and enduring linkages between its domestic agenda priorities and its foreign policy enablers. Secondly, to enable the economic development and political transformation of the country, India needed a stable, secure and peaceful neighbourhood.
With the events taking aggressive turn along the border, the government of India also chose to be aggressive.
The Pakistan Problem
The first and foremost on the list of neighbouring countries with which India wanted a peaceful neighbourhood was Pakistan and therefore when Nawaz Sharif came to India after PM Modi’s invitation to his swearing in ceremony, it gave a hope for a better future between the two neighbours.
Though, the meeting between the two leaders lasted for just 30 minutes, but the talks were termed ‘successful’ by both the leaders. The ideals of peace and harmony were echoed by both the sides. It seemed that things would change for better this time.
However, this warmth didn’t last long because then began a long phase of border skirmishes, which gradually took an ugly turn with both nations accusing each other of unprovoked firing and ceasefire violations. The India-Pakistan cross-border skirmishes are a series of intense firing exchanges between the Border Security Force and the Pakistan Rangers along the Line of Control which made the situation tense in the political and diplomatic establishments of both the sides.
With the events taking aggressive turn along the border, the government of India also chose to be aggressive. In an interview to the PTI, India’s Defence Minister said that Indian soldiers should act with “double the force”. Though this strong stance might have boosted the morale of soldiers fighting at the border but the message which went to Pakistan started raising anti-India sentiments, especially among the hardliners.
Amidst the casualties of civilians and damage to property along the side of border due to the border skirmishes, the ‘Neighbourhood First Policy’ took a big hit. Though, there are no ‘full stops’ in diplomacy, but blames, accusations, counter-accusations from both the sides made things murkier.
Questions were raised by the opposition parties and media houses that why the Pakistan probe team was allowed coming to India when there was a clear suspicion of the involvement of Pakistan’s security establishments behind the attacks.
In International Relations, it is said that it is easier to maintain good relations when the ‘hawkish’ elements are in power rather than the ‘dovish’ ones. This is because hawkish elements are always the ones taking hard lines, so if they try to maintain good relations with their adversaries, chances are much more that things would go normal because ‘dovish’ elements are already in line for having peace.
So, Modi government which is sensed as ‘hawkish’ in the Indian political scenario, when it came to power with the agenda of ‘Neighbourhood first’’’ policy, it seemed that positive results would come out, but sadly it couldn’t happen.
The Prime Ministers of the two sides continued to meet each other at multilateral forums like SAARC (Kathmandu-2014), UN General Assembly meeting (New York-2014), Shanghai Cooperation Organization (Russia, Ufa-July2015) and at Paris Peace Conference (2015). The next meeting between the two south-Asian counterparts happened in a manner which surprised most of the international relations observers.
On December 25th, 2015, Indian Prime Minister paid a surprise visit to Pakistan while returning from Afghanistan to greet Nawaz Sharif on his birthday, as a ‘good-will’ gesture. Again, all sorts of statements started coming from political parties, diplomatic establishments, media commentators, civil society groups etc, who termed this visit by Indian PM as a watershed moment which will lead to a durable peace not only between the two countries but in the South-Asian region.
All this hoopla suddenly turned into a war-cry when Pathankot Air Base was attacked within few days of PM Modi’s visit to Lahore. Suddenly, all the diplomatic talks were halted as the media kept baying for the blood of the ‘back-stabbers’ (Pakistan).
Suddenly, political commentators started pulling out the history of conflicts between the two countries showing that whenever India tried to reach out to Pakistan, India was back-stabbed. Resemblances were drawn from Kargil War in 1999, which happened just after the then Indian Prime Minister, Atal Bihari Vajpeyi’s ‘Bus-Diplomacy’ with Pakistan.
China holds an observer status in SAARC and it is pushing its agenda to become a permanent member of this regional grouping, backed by countries like Pakistan and Nepal.
The government of Pakistan condemned these attacks and offered its cooperation to India. Interestingly, India allowed a 5 member team from Pakistan (which included an ISI official) to come and investigate the matter. Questions were raised by the opposition parties and media houses that why the Pakistan probe team was allowed coming to India when there was a clear suspicion of the involvement of Pakistan’s security establishments behind the attacks.
Indo-Pak relations have been a roller-coaster ride in the past 2 years under the present dispensation. There have been many highs and lows, many times diplomatic talks were stopped for no concrete reasons and were again started without any satisfactory explanation. Clearly, the Pakistan problem still looms very high and the Indian government knows it too but it is shying to accept its diplomatic failures.
If Pakistan is a reason to worry, India’s other neighbours are no less in giving headaches to the policy makers here. Apart from Pakistan, the one country with which India has a long time problematic relationship is China. To add to India’s problems, Pakistan is a major ally of China and combined together they pose a great security threat to India.
The China Threat
China of today is a ‘rising power’, both in terms of its military might as well as its economic power. One can’t truly understand the geo-politics of South Asia, if China is kept out of the picture. The Sino-Indian boundary dispute is a long standing one. Both India and China are fighting for the regional supremacy in South Asia today.
Today, China holds an observer status in SAARC and it is pushing its agenda to become a permanent member of this regional grouping, backed by countries like Pakistan and Nepal. Surely, India doesn’t want this because then it would no longer be the biggest power among the SAARC countries and as a result it would prove very detrimental to India’s ‘stature’ in SAARC and its ‘core interests’ in the region.
China possesses ‘system-shaping’ capabilities today and with its resources, it has increased its ‘economic attractiveness’ to India’s neighbours.
China, unlike Pakistan, poses not only regional challenge to India but a systemic challenge. Being a permanent member of UN Security Council (UNSC), China has time and again ‘vetoed’ against India’s bid for the permanent membership to the UNSC, and now it is trying to do the same in the case of NSG (Nuclear Suppliers Group) in which India wants entry.
Secondly, China has been able to make India’s immediate neighbours to ‘bandwagon’ with itself whenever India has problems with its neighbours. Interestingly, India’s neighbours don’t have such problems with one another because they are not each other’s neighbours. It is so ironical that India being the centre, which ‘connects’ or ‘binds’ South-Asia as a region together, has proven costly to India’s interests.
China, taking the advantage of situation, has made very cordial relations with India’s neighbours in the sphere of military as well as economy. China’s role has been extremely vital in the development of ports at Gwadar, Hambantota and Chittagong in Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh respectively, thereby strategically encircling India.
China possesses ‘system-shaping’ capabilities today and with its resources, it has increased its ‘economic attractiveness’ to India’s neighbours. India can’t match up China in providing the perks and concessions to its neighbours, in near future atleast.
Losing Nepal
The most saddening fact about India’s neighbourhood policy in the last 2 years is its relations with Nepal. This Himalayan nation which has been one of the closest allies of India historically is now complaining of ‘big-brotherly’ attitude by India. Not only that, India has been accused of meddling in the internal affairs of Nepal.
With tension rising between the two countries, Nepal has chosen to move closer towards China…
The bilateral ties between the two countries have reached a low point due to Madhesis’ agitation against Nepal’s new constitution. During their agitation, 50 Madhesi agitators died. This resulted in the blockage of all crucial entry points on the Indo-Nepal border by Madhesis leading to the shortage of essential commodities in Nepal. The Nepalese government felt that the blockade was done at the behest of the Indian government, leading to strained bilateral relations.
Nepal’s Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli went on to say on record that the undeclared blockade by India and the resultant humanitarian crisis in the country had undermined the historic ties between the two neighbours. With tension rising between the two countries, Nepal has chosen to move closer towards China, which has agreed to assist Nepal in the exploration of hydrocarbon resources and expand the use of solar energy.
The Sri Lankan Problem
Not only Nepal, but in down south, Sri Lanka is also drifting away towards China. Under the Modi government, India set a dangerous precedent through its ‘subtle interference’ in Sri Lanka in the run-up to the elections there.
Many reports which came out on this issue establish the fact that India played a proactive role in promoting the coalition led by Maithripala Sirisena to defeat the then Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa whose anti-Tamil record and pro-China tilt was resented by India.
To make matters worse for India, Maldives have increased its engagement with China which led to increased Chinese investments in their infrastructure sector.
The new government in Sri Lanka wants China’s assistance in both its economic and infrastructural sector, which India can provide only in small measure. Sri Lanka’s drift from India is reflected by the fact that they have ignored India’s concerns over accepting China’s bidding to make Indian Ocean an economic hub around the port city of Colombo. India worries that this will help China to promote its military agenda in the region, especially in the Indian Ocean.
Meddling in Maldives
The relation with another Indian neighbour down south is also worrying. Maldives is a very important place in ‘geo-strategic’ terms in the South Asian affairs. India has been a long time ally of Maldives and has helped the island nation in the past through ‘operation cactus’. This was an Indian Army intervention which helped in preventing the coup that was attempted by a pro-LTTE group in 1988. From a point, where India acted as a ‘Friend in Need’ to a point where the relations with Maldives are at all time low, clearly shows how India is losing its neighbourhood.
India made the mistake by publicly saying that “it is concerned with the recent developments in the Maldives, including the arrest and manhandling of former President Nasheed”. In reply, the Maldivian government stated that it hoped that India would “adhere to the principle of Panchsheel and will not intervene in domestic politics of Maldives”.
The office of Maldivian President Abdulla issued a statement that his “government will not tolerate foreign parties interfering with the country’s domestic issues”. To make matters worse for India, Maldives have increased its engagement with China which led to increased Chinese investments in their infrastructure sector.
All these issues have led to a strain the Indo-Maldivian relationship, though efforts have been made by the Indian government to sign multiple bilateral agreements during the last visit of Maldivian President Abdullah Yameen to India.
Myanmar is crucial in the India’s ‘Look East Policy’. India is trying to foster its economic cooperation and defence ties with Myanmar in the recent past.
Messy with Myanmar
On the eastern front too, the picture is gloomy. The classic case of this is Myanmar, which is a gateway for India to the important South-East Asian region. Last year when the Indian Army conducted military operations against Naga militants along the Indo-Myanmar border, it was celebrated as a chest thumping victory by some ministers in the Government of India.
Statements like ‘going deep inside the borders of Myanmar’ and ‘surgical strikes’ by Indian army in Myanmar’s territory was resented furiously by Myanmar. They retorted by saying that “every country must respect the other country’s sovereignty”. Myanmar is crucial in the India’s ‘Look East Policy’. India is trying to foster its economic cooperation and defence ties with Myanmar in the recent past. Indo-Myanmar-Thailand trilateral highway is an extremely important project that will boost the economic ties between the two countries.
Ties with Bangladesh
Bangladesh is a neighbour which owes its creation itself to India way back in 1971. It is surrounded on three sides by India and interestingly it doesn’t share its border with any other country except India. All these aspects make Bangladesh very vital to India’s national interest.
Both the countries have signed the historic ‘land boundary agreement’ last year. The agreement was seen as a catalyst in the improvement of relations between the two neighbours. Arguments were given that it would secure the borders between the two countries and make the lives of people on both sides of the border more stable.
…it is evident that the ‘Neighbourhood First Policy’ has not worked well till now. India is losing its neighbourhood fast and most of the neighbours have drifted towards China.
Yes, the argument is true but only to a small extent. There is no doubt that those people who were living in conclaves for years without any citizenship, their lives have become relatively more stable but it doesn’t mean that cross border tensions over the issue of Bangladeshi immigrants have boiled down.
Secondly, the rise of religious extremism in Bangladesh which has led to attacks on the minority ‘Hindu’ population’ has its repercussions in India becauseright wing forces in India are looking it as Hindu versus Muslim problem. This narrow mindedness which is leading to a tendency of ‘tit for tat’ among many fringe groups in India is just adding to security threat arising from Bangladesh.
The Bhutan Bonhomie
The relations with Bhutan have been traditionally very amiable which has continued under Modi government. The Indian Prime Minister took his first foreign visit to Bhutan after assuming office, thereby giving prominence to Indo-Bhutanese relationship. Bhutan is of ‘strategic value’ for both India and China and it is in India’s interests to maintain good relations with Bhutan in order to prevent its drift to China.
Conclusion
To conclude, it is evident that the ‘Neighbourhood First Policy’ has not worked well till now. India is losing its neighbourhood fast and most of the neighbours have drifted towards China. India’s loss seems to be China’s gain. Amidst the Indo-Chinese rivalry for regional supremacy and a drifting neighbourhood, India needs to ‘rethink’, ‘rebuild’ and ‘reorient’ its Neighbourhood policy.
© Copyright 2016 Indian Defence Review
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