***The Inaccuracy of Polling

Weekly Map: The Inaccuracy of Polling

This graphic contains two maps of the United Kingdom. On the left side are the results of a YouGov poll that identified different parts of the U.K. as more or less Euroskeptic. On the right side are the official results of Britain’s vote to leave the European Union.

The YouGov polls, as well as numerous other polls, failed to predict accurately what was going to happen in the referendum. The polls prior to the vote were not as wrong as the polls for the last British general election, but there were many areas in the U.K. where the strength of the “leave” vote was underestimated.

The first YouGov poll released after polls closed predicted a 52 percent to 48 percent victory for “remain” – and the result was almost the precise opposite. At the beginning of the night, Newcastle upon Tyne turned out to be a far more even heat than expected (the “leave” camp garnered a higher percent than anticipated), and Sunderland turned out stronger for “leave” than expected. Those were not flashes in the pan but actual discrepancies between polling and reality.

The map on the left doesn’t give you a sense that Wales would vote overall for “leave.” Northern Ireland looks very mixed, whereas in the majority voted for “remain.” And polls missed the strength of the “leave” sentiment in the center of England. The increasing inaccuracy of polling is a phenomenon George Friedman has pointed out before and that we have written on extensively. 

Also, Scotland, Northern Ireland and London all voted to remain. Wales and much of the rest of England voted predominantly to leave. This fits with the increase in nationalism across Europe, and brings into relief how nationalism is not just something that affects nation-states but also everything from multilateral international institutions to united kingdoms.

In George's latest book, Flashpoints: The Emerging Crisis in Europe, he predicted that the European Union would eventually fragment. Brexit is just the first step. In the coming weeks, we will be analyzing the government maneuvers on the Continent that will have the largest impact on the future of the U.K. and the rest of the world. 

This historic event is just the start of a major change in Europe. One that will not only impact the Peninsula, but will send shockwaves throughout the globe.