http://www.security-risks.com/security-trends-south-asia/pakistan/pakistan-%E2%80%93-stability-projections-and-trends-5702.html
SR Research , Jun 8, 2016
Pakistan – Stability Projections and Trends[1]
Political
Balanced relationship Ruling PML N and Opposition Parties – Negative [Post Panama Papers Revelations]
Balanced civil military relations - Negative.
Military role in politics and governance - Negative.
Security
Conflict management tribal areas Khyber Pakhtoonwa, Federally Administered Tribal Areas and Balochistan – Positive.
Counter Terrorism Punjab, Sindh – Positive.
De-criminalisation Karachi – Positive.
Geo Political/Regional
Supporting stability in Afghanistan – Negative.
Conflict de-escalation India - Negative
Economic
GDP Growth - Positive
[Real GDP growth at market prices in percent, unless indicated otherwise]
2015 2016 2017 2018
5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4
4.8 4.1 4.5 (CY) – Projections June 2015.
5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4
6.0 3.7 4.5 (FY) – Projections June 2015.
[Estimates as per World Bank Report GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS Chapter 2.5 JANUARY 2016]
As per the Asian Development Bank Outlook for 2016, GDP growth is expected to accelerate modestly to 4.5% in FY2016 and 4.8% in FY2017, assuming continued macroeconomic stability, expected improvement in energy supply, and planned infrastructure investment tied to an economic corridor project linking Pakistan with the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Further implementation of structural reform will consolidate recent gains in macroeconomic stability and improve the investment climate amidst the improving security situation, especially in Karachi, the commercial hub of the country. Growth in industry is expected to be driven by strong expansion in construction and continued moderate expansion in mining, utilities, and manufacturing. Growth in large-scale manufacturing accelerated to 3.9% in the first half of FY2016 from 2.7 % in the same period of last year, supported by low prices for raw materials, improved gas and electricity supply, and expanded construction, as well as lower interest rates. Agriculture is likely to continue to grow only moderately, as cotton output is projected to fall because of heavy rains in July 2015 and much lower global cotton prices. However, continued strong expansion in livestock, which accounts for over half of agricultural production, will partly offset reductions elsewhere. Challenges for export growth are generally weak external demand, growth moderation in the PRC, Pakistan rupee appreciation against the euro, lost textile market share to new competitors, and unfavourable terms of trade for exports with little value added. Persistent rupee appreciation, by 20% in real terms over the past 2 years, has adversely affected export competitiveness. [i]
[UPDATED 19 May 16. Indicative measures based on open source information for the purpose of debate on security]
[1] Projections are positive indicators that if achieved could lead to enhanced effectiveness and stability in key vectors such as politics, governance and so on. These are prescriptive based on information from primary sources and analysis of open sources. Trends indicate possibility or otherwise of projections identified as positive, negative or uncertain and are indicated against each vector. Sources based on which trends have been assessed are included in detailed assessments provided to subscribers. FOR DETAILED ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE TRENDS SUBSCRIBE TO PAKISTAN, DAILY WEEKLY OR MONTHLY BRIEFS. EMAIL officemail@security-risks.com.
[i] Asian development outlook 2016. Asia’s potential growth. Mandaluyong City, Philippines: Asian Development Bank, 2016. Page183-185.
SR Research , Jun 8, 2016
Pakistan – Stability Projections and Trends[1]
Political
Balanced relationship Ruling PML N and Opposition Parties – Negative [Post Panama Papers Revelations]
Balanced civil military relations - Negative.
Military role in politics and governance - Negative.
Security
Conflict management tribal areas Khyber Pakhtoonwa, Federally Administered Tribal Areas and Balochistan – Positive.
Counter Terrorism Punjab, Sindh – Positive.
De-criminalisation Karachi – Positive.
Geo Political/Regional
Supporting stability in Afghanistan – Negative.
Conflict de-escalation India - Negative
Economic
GDP Growth - Positive
[Real GDP growth at market prices in percent, unless indicated otherwise]
2015 2016 2017 2018
5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4
4.8 4.1 4.5 (CY) – Projections June 2015.
5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4
6.0 3.7 4.5 (FY) – Projections June 2015.
[Estimates as per World Bank Report GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS Chapter 2.5 JANUARY 2016]
As per the Asian Development Bank Outlook for 2016, GDP growth is expected to accelerate modestly to 4.5% in FY2016 and 4.8% in FY2017, assuming continued macroeconomic stability, expected improvement in energy supply, and planned infrastructure investment tied to an economic corridor project linking Pakistan with the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Further implementation of structural reform will consolidate recent gains in macroeconomic stability and improve the investment climate amidst the improving security situation, especially in Karachi, the commercial hub of the country. Growth in industry is expected to be driven by strong expansion in construction and continued moderate expansion in mining, utilities, and manufacturing. Growth in large-scale manufacturing accelerated to 3.9% in the first half of FY2016 from 2.7 % in the same period of last year, supported by low prices for raw materials, improved gas and electricity supply, and expanded construction, as well as lower interest rates. Agriculture is likely to continue to grow only moderately, as cotton output is projected to fall because of heavy rains in July 2015 and much lower global cotton prices. However, continued strong expansion in livestock, which accounts for over half of agricultural production, will partly offset reductions elsewhere. Challenges for export growth are generally weak external demand, growth moderation in the PRC, Pakistan rupee appreciation against the euro, lost textile market share to new competitors, and unfavourable terms of trade for exports with little value added. Persistent rupee appreciation, by 20% in real terms over the past 2 years, has adversely affected export competitiveness. [i]
[UPDATED 19 May 16. Indicative measures based on open source information for the purpose of debate on security]
[1] Projections are positive indicators that if achieved could lead to enhanced effectiveness and stability in key vectors such as politics, governance and so on. These are prescriptive based on information from primary sources and analysis of open sources. Trends indicate possibility or otherwise of projections identified as positive, negative or uncertain and are indicated against each vector. Sources based on which trends have been assessed are included in detailed assessments provided to subscribers. FOR DETAILED ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE TRENDS SUBSCRIBE TO PAKISTAN, DAILY WEEKLY OR MONTHLY BRIEFS. EMAIL officemail@security-risks.com.
[i] Asian development outlook 2016. Asia’s potential growth. Mandaluyong City, Philippines: Asian Development Bank, 2016. Page183-185.
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