23 May 2016
This paper considers how Russia and the six countries of the EU’s eastern neighbourhood could develop by 2030. More specifically, the text's authors set out five trends and their key drivers might shape Russia's future foreign policy: 1) Russia’s domestic problems, particularly economic, that create the temptation for diversionary wars; 2) Russia’s increased inclination to use military force; 3) its effort to dominate the eastern neighbourhood; 4) the prospects for Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova by 2030; and 5) those of Belarus, Azerbaijan and Armenia. In each section, they consider the disruptive forces that throw these trends off course; and conclude by setting out broad principles for what Europe should do to manage the risks ahead.
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Fredrik Wesslau, Andrew Wilson
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