JASONS STUDY ON U.S. NUCLEAR ARSENAL

From: John Harvey

5 June 2015

To: Possibly Interested Colleagues

Attached, FYI is the Executive Summary of the recent JASON’s study

addressing the administration’s “3+2 Strategic Vision” for the nuclear

JASON-3+2-ExecSum-rel May16 stockkpile. For those who don’t have the time to read its 11 pages, I

offer a brief summary (mostly in my own words and having not reviewed

the classified report on which findings and conclusions are based).

Regarding the challenges of sustaining the evolving nuclear weapons

stockpile, the JASON’s found:

— NNSA’s nuke weapons skills and capabilities are essential.

— Program instability (e.g. wild funding and/or program swings)

is a threat to the mission.

— Diversity in warhead types is more important to hedge

unanticipated stockpile problems, not problems previously encountered

and well understood.

— The overall benefits of warhead interoperability can only be

established in a design-trade study that factors in all relevant

stockpile and delivery system parameters.

— That work has not yet been completed.

The JASONs concluded:

— NNSA’s nuclear enterprise, working with Congress, must

maintain a stable, executable work program to sustain/modernize the

evolving stockpile. Important to exercise skills on challenging work.

— ASAP (i.e. before the IW LEPs are even underway) get on with

the work to establish the feasibility, cost and desirability of

interoperable warheads and the “3+2” vision.

Harvey Bottom Line: Absolutely nothing new in the findings;

challenges identified are well understood by government experts.

Conclusions are eminently sensible. Contrary to some reports in the

trade press and associated blogs, nothing in the JASONs study conveys

a negative assessment of the “3+2 stockpile vision.” Rather, the

JASONS argue to accelerate work to inform future “3+2” decisions

without delaying schedules.