ISIS Launches Offensive to Capture Last Territory North of Aleppo Held by U.S.-Backed Syrian Rebels

By Christopher Koza

Institute for the Study of War

June 4, 2016

ISIS Collapses Opposition Frontline in Northern Aleppo Province

Key Takeaway: The Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) has mounted a major offensive against opposition groups in Northern Aleppo Province over the past week, threatening the total collapse of the last pocket of opposition-held terrain along the Syrian-Turkish Border. ISIS seized at least six villages in Northern Aleppo Province on May 27, besieging the critical opposition stronghold of Mare'a and entering the outskirts of the border town of Azaz. These gains by ISIS mark the latest in a series of recent setbacks for the opposition in Northern Aleppo Province since the Hawar Kilis Operations Room - a coalition of opposition groups backed by the U.S. and Turkey that includes fighters vetted by the U.S. Department of Defense - captured the ISIS-held town of Al-Rai on April 7. The looming defeat of these opposition groups poses a significant risk to the long-term success of the anti-ISIS campaign. Turkey has repeatedly called for the U.S. to increase its support for Sunni Arab opposition groups in Northern Aleppo Province as an alternative to deepening cooperation with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) - a U.S.-backed coalition led by the Syrian Kurdish YPG, considered by Turkey to be a terrorist organization due to its links with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party. The collapse of the Mare'a Line will foreclose this alternative and instead drive the U.S. to deepen its current overreliance on the Syrian Kurdish YPG - setting the conditions for long-term ethnic conflict in the region and further limiting opportunities for partnership with Sunni Arabs in Northern Syria as part of the anti-ISIS campaign.

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