Russia and China have reached a level of cooperation and coordination in regional policies, which has no parallel in their history. This calls for an extraordinary degree of mutual accommodation of each other’s core interests and vital concerns. So far there has been no hiccup.
On the other hand, as each passing day adds to China’s economic might, Russia may find itself coping with an unequal partnership.
Newer and more ingenious methods will have to be found to ensure a balanced trade and investment partnership.
Enter One Road One Belt. A recent commentary in the Moscow media hinted at disquiet in the Russian mind regarding China’s proposed New Silk Road.
Russia’s principal grouse seems to be that China is keeping the cards close to its chest. As a top expert at the Kremlin-associated think tank Valdai Club put it, the New Silk Road is “a large-scale political and economic initiative” but it has so far been lacking “practical and conceptual substance”, and it needs “a plan of practical steps”.
The Russian expert apprehends that there could be conflict of interests insofar as while China aims at project exports, the partner countries (read Russia) “do not want China to bring in its companies and workers” and would expect the projects to generate jobs locally.
Besides, “Russia’s goal is to combine Chinese supply and domestic demand”. Clearly, the Russian expert is sceptical about the New Silk Road projects materialising in the short and medium term.
Moscow would have a sense of disquiet that while two transportation routes within the Silk Road initiative pass through Russian territory, China is also probing a third route that bypasses Russia – via Caspian Sea to Turkmenistan, Georgia and Turkey, heading for Europe.
Russia would have preferred that the New Silk Road passes entirely via its territory, which would make it a transit route of strategic significance for Europe and China. But China is considering multiple options and is casting the net wide in Eurasia.
President Xi Jinping embarked on a five-day trip on June 17 to Serbia, Poland and Uzbekistan where the ‘Belt and Road’ initiative will be the key agenda item.
Serbia, Russia’s ally in the Balkans, is a case in point where the ‘Belt and Road’ may end up promoting the country’s integration with Europe in the fullness of time. Would Russia be happy with it?
Ironically, the European Union too feels unhappy over China’s footprints in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) within the format known as ‘16+1’ (CEE countries plus China).
Indeed, the ‘Belt and Road’ competes with Europe’s own plans to promote connectivity in the CEE and Europe, therefore, is “cautious of China’s motives”, to quote a top Chinese pundit, who also admits that “the ‘16+1’ cooperation may squeeze the West’s clout in the region”. (Global Times)
The second leg of Xi’s tour will be Poland, which is an even more strategic player than Serbia in Central Europe. Russia’s ties with Poland are rocky, to say the least, while Poland also is capable of behaving like a camel in the EU tent.
The Russian experts are right that no country will surrender its sovereignty or core interests by participating in the ‘Road and Belt’ projects. But China is unlikely to make tall demands, either. All the same, how China overcomes the “political diversity” and competing interests in the Eurasian region remains to be seen. Indeed, the fault lines in the regional landscape are one too many.
But then, such gloomy forecasts are predicated on the assumption that Belt and Road is one hell of a mega project. Which it is not. The investments under the rubric ‘Road and Belt’ will be made in a number of modernization and transportation programs that aim at closely tying China to its neighbours and the entire global economy. (Sputnik)
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