By Radhakrishna Rao
01 May , 2016
India has reasons to worry about North Korean nuclear and rocket tests. Though not an immediate neighbour of the country, North Korea by its act transferring some of the critical missile technologies to Pakistan has contributed to the growing tension between India and Pakistan. For instance the much touted Ghauri missile of Pakistan is claimed to be a clone of North Korea’s Nodong missile. In all likelihood North Korea would help Pakistan in its quest of miniaturising its nuclear warheads, believe strategic analysts specializing in South Asian affairs.
There never seems to be an end to the “fantastic claims” with which North Korea continues to cast a spell on the world. Described as a “rogue state” and “reclusive kingdom”, North Korea continues to remain in limelight for all the wrong reasons.
The North Korean political leadership would like the world to believe that it has already qualified a rocket engine meant to propel its new ICBM that is capable of staging nuclear strikes…
Now the North Korean political leadership would like the world to believe that it has already qualified a rocket engine meant to propel its new Inter Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) that is capable of staging nuclear strikes on the US. But then the rocket engine is said to have gone through only a ground testing phase and it may need to go through many more tests before it becomes robust enough to drive an ICBM.
However South Korean Government sources are of view that North Korea is long way off from attaining a capability to fire an ICBM. And in Washington a US State Department spokesman Mark Toner urged North Korea to “refrain from actions and rhetoric that further destabilize the region and focus instead on taking concrete step towards fulfilling its commitment and international obligations”.
The most recent instance of North Korea’s flagrant disregard for the international opinion was the test firing six short range missiles. The details of this mission have not been made public. But what came as a shock to the international community was the fact that this missile flight came hours after the UN imposed toughest ever sanction to date on North Korea for its most recent nuclear test and rocket launch. Further, North Korea has also claimed that it has also launched a ballistic missile from a submarine in the Sea of Japan. If this test is successful, North Korea could take the threat of nuclear strike to a new, dangerous level.
In the aftermath of the UN sanction, US President Barack Obama said that the measures against North Korea were “a firm, united and appropriate response by the international community.” As international security experts point out, display of military might has become a routine affair for North Korean political leadership keen on mounting psychological pressure on the international community.
…by exploiting the loopholes in the sanction regime, North Korea may manage to meet its most of its requirements without much of a problem.
Not unexpectedly, South Korea was quick to react to North Korean missile flight with country’s Defence Ministry stating that six projectiles in the form of either rockets or guided missiles flashed on into the oceanic waters, off the eastern coast of North Korea. China, which continues to be a close ally as well as a well wisher of North Korea, has urged all the parties involved to refrain from “responses and actions” that might contribute to the escalation of the tension.
Now the focus in on how North Korea would withstand the rigours of UN sponsored sanctions which make it incumbent upon all the countries to thoroughly inspect cargo originating from and headed to North Korea. Under the UN sanctions, the sale of aviation fuel and rocket fuel to North Korea stands banned. On the other hand, under the UN sanctions, there is a ban on the export of coal, iron, iron ore, gold and titanium rear earth minerals from North Korea. To tighten the squeeze on “pariah regime” of North Korea, severe banking restrictions have been announced to make it difficult for North Korea to receive and transmit payment.
Interestingly, cases of North Korean diplomats ferrying illicit cash to Pyongyang have been reported. And the most recent UN sanctions facilitate the expulsion of North Korean envoys found carrying illegal currency.
In fact, both Japan and South Korea have all along been advocating for the need for sanctions that are significantly stronger than those in force since 2006. “These are among the toughest measures we have agreed against any country in the world, certainly the toughest ever against North Korea. This marks a significant shift on the security council as a whole,” says Matthew Rycroft, British ambassador to UN. But then by exploiting the loopholes in the sanction regime, North Korea may manage to meet its most of its requirements without much of a problem. There is a perception that both China and Russia would find loopholes in so far as circumventing the provisions of UN sanctions are concerned.
Both US and South Korea have made it clear that they would initiate discussions for deploying the Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) system in the Korean peninsula without much of a time lag.
And during his recent two day visit to Beijing, US Secretary of State, John Kerry had impressed upon the Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, the need for a significant new UN security resolution targeting North Korea for its January 6 nuclear test claimed to be a step forward in the development of a hydrogen bomb. However, US has a serious doubt over the North Korean claim of a hydrogen bomb test. ”We agreed that the UN Security Council needs to take further action and pass a new resolution,” Wang stated at a joint media briefing with Kerry.
And in response to the North Korean Feb.7 rocket launch, which US and its allies consider as a smoke screen for testing long range ballistic missiles for delivering nuclear weapons, US is likely to beef up its missile defence system. Interestingly, not long back North Korea had claimed that it is in possession of missiles good enough to hit the shores of US. In this context, both US and South Korea have made it clear that they would initiate discussions for deploying the Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) system in the Korean peninsula without much of a time lag. This action could draw the ire of China, which believes that this sophisticated radar system can be exploited to look into the Chinese territory.
In February, a belligerent North Korea had taken an extraordinary measure of expelling all the South Koreans from the jointly operated Kaesong industrial zone which has now been handed over to the defence establishment of the country. In a statement Pyongyang said that Seoul’s earlier decision to close down the complex amounted to waging a war. North Korea has already seized the assets of all 129 South Korean enterprises located 10-km across the border inside North Korea.
…the much touted Ghauri missile of Pakistan is claimed to be a clone of North Korea’s Nodong missile.
According to sources in North Korea based Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea, by closing down Kaesong, South Korea has destroyed the last lifeline of North South relations. “Now we can say that all strings between the Koreas have been cut and that there are no more of buffers. An escalation of tension is inevitable,” points out KoYoo-Hwan, a Professor of North Korean Studies at Dongguk University.
On its part, South Korea has defended its action of withdrawing from Kaesong industrial complex, saying that North Korea has been misusing hundreds of millions of dollars that it earned from the complex to support its military oriented missile and nuclear development programmes. But then for the owners of industrial units at Kaesong complex, the running feud between the two Koreas implies a total destruction of the business.
India has reasons to worry about North Korean nuclear and rocket tests. Though not an immediate neighbour of the country, North Korea by its act transferring some of the critical missile technologies to Pakistan has contributed to the growing tension between India and Pakistan. For instance the much touted Ghauri missile of Pakistan is claimed to be a clone of North Korea’s Nodong missile. In all likelihood North Korea would help Pakistan in its quest of miniaturising its nuclear warheads, believe strategic analysts specializing in South Asian affairs.
The international perception is that North Korean nuclear tests and satellite launches are meant to pressurise the US to the negotiating table wherein North Korea can extract concessions.
On another front, the rapidly growing North Korean nuclear and missile capabilities could spur both South Korea and Japan to build counter measures with serious consequences for the “peace and tranquillity” in East Asia. For instance, Japan has radically amended its pacifist constitution to beef up its defence forces to face any threat to its national integrity.
The international perception is that North Korean nuclear tests and satellite launches are meant to pressurise the US to the negotiating table wherein North Korea can extract concessions. It is a moot question whether like Iran, North Korea would commit to scaling down and ultimately phasing out is military oriented nuclear-missile programme. The no holds barred nuclear and missile tests ordered by the North Korean tyrannical and dictatorial regime headed by Kim Jong Un, are said to be clever tactical ploy to divert the attention of the people away from the pressing problems of poverty, hunger and deprivation.
Amidst escalating tension and raging controversy, North Korea continues to claim nonchalantly that all its nuclear and rocket tests are meant for peaceful civilian uses.
According to an analysis by the prestigious Foreign Policy Journal, the North Korean ambition to attain long range missile capability has severe implications for the stability, military balance and geo politics of the region. In particular it could compel its rivals especially, South Korea, Japan and US to deploy nuclear weapons.
This grim scenario is indeed fraught with grave consequences for the global peace.
© Copyright 2016 Indian Defence Review
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