By Lt Gen Prakash Katoch
23 May , 2016
As per media reports, Mullah Akhtar Mansour, Afghan Taliban chief has been killed in a US drone strike in Baluchistan Province of Pakistan. It may be recalled that the installation of Mansour to head Afghan Taliban was carefully orchestrated by Pakistan keeping the death of former Afghan Taliban chief Mullah Omar under wrap for more than two years. Mansour was a strategic pawn for Pakistan’s ISI as he was the religious teacher of Haqqanis based in Pakistan for over three decades. Haqqanis have been consistently used by Pakistan as their covert arm to destabilize Afghanistan and target Indian establishment and interests in Afghanistan.
The ISI had used Mansour to rally the Afghan Taliban and the TTP under the same platform to Pakistan’s advantage. Capture of large parts of Kunduz City in north Afghanistan last September-October was under the aegis of Mansour, even as presence of ISI operative (s) were reported in the hospital at Kunduz that had to be bombed to knock out the Taliban HQ. The assessment of Director US Intelligence Agency this February had acknowledged that both the Afghan Taliban and TTP had largely coalesced under Mullah Mansour.
Mansour possibly also helped Pakistan clobber together an ISI headed conglomerate of Afghan Taliban and TTP mixed with cadres of Pakistani Mujahid battalions – being termed as ISIS or the Khorasan chapter in Afghanistan, based in Nangarhar Province of Afghanistan. Though Director US National Intelligence termed the ISIS “disgruntled elements of Afghan Taliban and TTP” the Afghans are very clear that this so called ISIS is actually an ISI outfit, facilitated by Pakistani regulars inducted into Afghanistan along with millions of Pakistani refugees.
This loose ISI Brigade worth was perhaps clobbered together in area of Peshawar and then pushed west into Nangarhar. Whether this initial brigade worth has been beefed up / will be beefed up in future can be conjectured considering that Pakistan had trained some 20 Mujahid battalions to operate as and support Taliban. The fact that a Pakistani General Nida Mohammad Nadim, head of Taliban’s military branch for provinces of Faryab, Badghis, Sar-e-Pul and Ghor was killed in northern Afghanistan last month indicates that the situation may be heading to the levels during the US invasion of Afghanistan when a weak Division worth of Pakistani regulars and some 9000 Taliban were fighting inside Afghanistan in support of Afghan Taliban. That the US had then permitted their air evacuation to Pakistan from Kunduz and Khost is another issue.
For some years, the US has been pressurizing Pakistan to get after the Haqqanis but Pakistan has continued to play her double game. Mansour was actually a prized possession of the ISI. While Pakistan continued to dupe Afghanistan that they would persuade Afghan Taliban to join the reconciliation process (and they still continue to pursue this line), Mansour had categorically stated, “We will continue our jihad until the creation of an Islamic system. The enemy with their talk of peace is trying by this propaganda to weaken the jihad”. As per reports Mansour and other Taliban cadres riding a vehicle near the town of Ahmad Wal in Baluchistan province were targeted by multiple US UAVs. US Secretary of State on a visit to Myanmar told reporters, “Mansour posed… an imminent threat to US personnel, Afghan civilians and Afghan security forces.” Pentagon confirmed the operation to kill Mansour was authorized by President Obama, reminiscent of the raid by US Navy Seals in Abbotabad to kill Osama-bin-Laden. Mansour’s movements were being monitored for some time. Whether this intelligence was shared by the US will remain a question, though unlikely. In all probability, the monitoring would have been done in conjunction Afghan intelligence. As reported, the US informed both Afghanistan and Pakistan after the strike.
Senator John McCain, Chairman of US Senate Armed Services Committee while welcoming the killing of Mansour said, “I hope this strike against the Taliban’s top leader will lead the Administration to reconsider its policy of prohibiting US forces from targeting the Taliban” adding. “it (Taliban) is the one force most able and willing to turn Afghanistan into a terrorist safe haven once again.” Mansour incidentally had been repatriated to Afghanistan in September 2006 following detention in Pakistan and was the Taliban’s self-styled ‘Governor’ of Kandahar in 2007. Despite all this and his record of terrorism and narcotics trafficking, his installation as the Chief of Afghan Taliban replacing Mullah Omar by Pakistan’s ISI speaks volumes of Pakistani intentions. Afghan CEO Abdullah Abdullah says that if Mansour’s death is confirmed major changes within the ranks of the Taliban could be expected as a number of Taliban leaders could join the peace process. The US too may be hopeful of the same.
But what exactly was Mansour doing in Baluchistan? For sure he was the ISI’s man. So was he provided a sanctuary in Baluchistan or was he driving with other cadres on a mission – help Pakistani military perpetrate its genocide on the hapless Baluchis who are opposing Pakistani military atrocities and also feebly protesting impending deployment of China’s PLA on their land under pretext of protecting the CPEC. Remember the input by erstwhile German Ambassador to Bahrain, Kuwait, and Syria, Gunter Mulack, stating that Kulbhushan Jadhav, former Indian Navy officer was abducted through Taliban and then paraded by the Pakistani Military-ISI as spying in Baluchistan. That to-date Pakistan has not provided India consular access to Jadhav is another issue.
Pakistan has also in recent past announced they caught Afghan spies in Baluchistan, though they did not announce their names. What was Mansour’s mission in Baluchistan – coordinating with Jundallah? It is well known that Pakistan’s Sunni terrorist organization Jundallah is targeting Shia’s in Baluchistan and the ISI is using them for cross-border raids into Iran. Then, there were reports of an ISIS delegation visiting Baluchistan in September 2014 to meet Jundallah but there would have been more such meetings that went unreported with the media blacked out in Baluchistan and many local reporters assassinated.
There is naturally speculation that there would be leadership struggle within the Afghan Taliban, as was opined when the death of Mullah Omar was announced more than two years after it occurred in a hospital in Karachi under obvious surveillance of the ISI. Although much was talked about of a power struggle post the announcement of Omar’s death and there was even talk of Mullah Mansour being injured in a fight at one stage, the transition from Omar to Mansour was very smoothly organized by the ISI, as subsequent events proved. With the killing of Mansour, those who feel that ISI may be in disarray would actually be in for some surprises. Mansour was not the only ISI protégé in Afghan Taliban. The New York Times of 8 May 2016 reported that Haqqani network Chief Sirajuddin Haqqani had been placed as deputy leader of the Afghan Taliban last year. The report citing US and Afghan officials said that closer integration of Haqqani militants into the leadership of Taliban is changing the flow of Afghan insurgency this year with Haqqanis increasingly calling the shots.
Post the killing of Mansour, US Senator Corker said, “If Pakistan would play a more constructive role, we could destabilize the Taliban far more rapidly.” But that is the million dollar question with Pakistan now in the Chinese camp whether US wants to acknowledge it or not. China wants all US-NATO troops out and Pakistan will rather dance to the Chinese tune now. The Haqqanis bind the Afgahn Taliban and the TTP together, which advantage the ISI will never let go. Srajuddin Haqqani was placed in Afghan Taliban as deputy to cater for the very eventuality of Mansour getting bumped off, which has now happened. Sirajuddinn Haqqani in all probability may fill the void of Mansour. The next deputy of Aghan Taliban may well be another ISI nominee from the Quetta Shoora.
© Copyright 2016 Indian Defence Review
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