MAY 9, 2016
American leaders unnecessarily provoked China to challenge US policy in Asia. Although Russia remains the main challenge for the USA, now China has also joined the Russian party. The USA can do nothing literally against the Chinese challenge, except in rhetoric, while Beijing continues to ensure security for its legitimate trade through South China Sea.
Clearly, Obama’s pivot to Asia to contain China (as well as Russia) came as a timely warning to Beijing to take precautionary measures against US mischief in the South China Sea. China is determined to block American military vessels that might obstruct the Chinese navigation of trade vessels to Middle East and Central Asia in the South China Sea (SCS). Washington said China could, however, effectively create a strait by locating sufficient military assets on two sets of land it controls. Beijing is busy making a new strategic strait in the region.
The South China Sea, several hundred nautical miles wide, doesn’t appear at first glance to be a geographical bottleneck. China has already constructed artificial islands for missile launch on the South China Sea.
Construction of Fiery Cross Reef located in the western part of the Spratly Islands group in the South China Sea has been completed. That decision is important for a number of reasons, but among them is that China’s island-grabbing campaign may be designed to give Beijing a strategic headlock on one of the planet’s most critical waterways.
Many experts point to the geostrategic value of the South China Sea. The logical conclusion drawn from China’s adding islands in the southern part of the South China Sea with military-sized runways, substantial port facilities, radar platforms and space to accommodate military forces is that China’s objective is to dominate the waters of the South China Sea at will. Building the islands is therefore a significant strategic event and they leave the potential for the South China Sea to become a Chinese strait, rather than an open component of the global maritime commons.
China seems to be aiming at effectively creating a strait by locating sufficient military assets on two sets of land it controls: the Paracel Islands in the north and the Spratly Islands in the south. Experts think the situation in the South China Sea was close to reaching the level of a strategic strait. China’s current outposts could greatly complicate US operational planning in the region, but it is hard to see the country locking down the region with the island bases it now operates. Such a Chinese “strategic strait” to the Strait of Hormuz — a critical choke point for global trade. A full 90 percent of East Asian energy imports travel through the South China Sea.
There are few circumstances where China would want to restrict commercial movement in the area, but the real problem is that Beijing could readily exercise that capacity only in times of crisis or conflict. And that’s where Uncle Sam comes into play as it uses the route for trade extensively. The region accounted in 2011 for $5.3 trillion in bilateral annual trade — $1.2 trillion of which is tied to the USA. The US Department of Commerce estimates the USA exported $79 billion in goods to the countries around the South China Sea in 2013, and imported $127 billion from them during that period. Free access for commercial trade is a vital interest of the United States, so when one country has the capability to shut other countries off when it chooses.
Beijing’s real rationale for risking its global reputation over a handful of tiny islands remains open for debate. Most agree that China truly believes it has a historic right to the region — but the South China Sea’s relatively paltry energy resources- especially with oil now so cheap – hardly justify such an assertive grab on a realpolitik basis. China may have basically calculated that it will take some near-term, rather assertive actions in the South China Sea, and pay short-term reputation costs in exchange for what it believes to be longer-term strategic gains.
However, China finds opposition from not only the regional powers like Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei that lay claim to the waters in the South China Sea and have appealed to the special tribunal in The Hague but also from US super power to claims its rights to free passage through the SCS. Beyond the geographical claims themselves, the tribunal is also looking into whether Beijing is overstating the types of territory it controls — the air and maritime rights associated with rocks are different than those of reefs or islands — and the legality of other Chinese actions near the Philippines.
Meanwhile, China is intensifying its global diplomatic campaign to win ¬support ahead of an imminent international court ruling over the South China Sea disputes. The development came as ¬Beijing vowed greater cooperation and to proceed with multinational military exercises with Southeast Asian nations, but also called on countries to back its stance on the territorial disputes – putting many in a dilemma as they have to side with either China or the USA.
A major test for the future of Asia is on the horizon, and it’s centered on the South China Sea. Nations in the region are feeling the pressure from both China and the USA over South China Sea. The USA has been pressuring Asean members over the disputes. Within the next three months, a tribunal at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague is expected to rule on China’s expansive and somewhat ambiguous territorial claims in the South China Sea, which the Philippines contends are invalid under international law.
Meanwhile, the State Oceanic Administration said Beijing was working on a five-year cooperation plan in the disputed waters between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
China ‘s defense ministry said China would send missile destroyer Lanzhou and Special Forces for a maritime security and anti-terror exercise next month with the bloc in waters between Singapore and Brunei.
Beijing is also keen to approach nations in Europe and Africa to consolidate its diplomatic base ahead of the ruling by the UN Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague, in the case launched by the Philippines. China says the court has no jurisdiction in the matter. Beijing says it has agreed with Cambodia, Laos and Brunei that the disputes would not affect Sino-Asean ties. But Cambodian government said his country had reached no new agreement with China over the dispute. Mainland media reported that more than 10 nations were on China’s side, and that a statement issued by China, Russia and India said the dispute should be resolved through negotiation.
Since it is actively involved in the Sea crisis, China is going all out to find diplomatic solution. Recently Chinese President Xi Jinping told a group of foreign ministers from Asia and the Middle East that the regional disputes should be resolved peacefully through negotiations among the countries directly involved. China also said it had reached a consensus with Belarus and Pakistan – which are not claimant states – that said they respected China’s stance on the issue, after separate meetings with the two nations’ foreign ministers on the sidelines of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia.
The Chinese diplomatic move has sparked concern over whether Beijing is taking the dispute to the international stage by directly involving its allies like Russia – in contrast to its known stance that the matter is a ‘bilateral issue’. Though the countries in the region may want to be able to cooperate with China and maintain good relations with Beijing; they don’t want to face coercion or intimidation on matters of security or economic policy.
Experts say that China will likely lose some elements of the Hague case, “Philippines v. China.” Claimants would much prefer a peaceful resolution of disputes. Washington is eager to fix Beijing on the issue that favor the regional powers.. Beijing has “no choice” as the USA was also doing the same, referring to an earlier statement made by G7 foreign ministers that expressed opposition to China’s provocative “unilateral actions” in disputed waters.
China realizes the pickle that they’re in, so they’re taking actions at sea to emphasize their physical control. It’s operational coercion to change the power dynamics in their favor — in response to a peaceful dispute resolution process. The world’s most populous nation has already denounced the process, and opted not to participate, but the tribunal’s decision will technically still be binding under international law. Experts who closely watch developments in the South China Sea say that they expect China to lose at least some of the elements of the case, but the real test will come in how Beijing reacts to a ‘negative’ court ruling. It’s possible that China will back off from its broadest claims, but it may also demonstrate a willingness to buck the international legal system.
It is argued that a part of the Chinese buildup in the area may come from Beijing’s own fears that other powers, under pressure from USA may attempt to shut down commerce in the South China Sea. But whatever the rationale for China’s island-building, the tribunal’s coming ruling is a real trigger for the future of the region and it may be causing China to build up its capabilities in the region faster. China’s latest hypersonic vehicle test is seen as ‘nuclear deterrent’ amid US interference.
The USA, China and Russia – all veto members and top possessors of nukes have indeed kicked off a new arms race. China and Russia were also concerned about the US’ shift towards the “Third Offset” strategy. The approach calls for the Pentagon to do more with less, as its traditional military advantages – such as a larger army and navy, as well as technological superiority – are steadily eroded. The Third Offset strategy and glide vehicle tests by China and Russia were signs that the three countries have kicked off a new arms race.
China and Russia are the target of Obama‘s Asia pivot but in order to ensure the active support of neutral Asian nations that still sympathize with Moscow, Obama has not stressed Russia in the pivot. However, China and Russia have been coordinating their security action to counter the US pivot in Asia. Both are ramping up their advanced hypersonic glide vehicle programs to counter a US plan to deploy an anti-missile system in South Korea and its push towards a leaner but tougher military. Beijing carried out the seventh successful test-flight of its DF-ZF glider last week. The Pentagon sources said that the glider was mounted on a ballistic missile fired from the Wuzhai launch centre in Shanxi province.
The hypersonic tests by China and Russia are aimed at causing a threat to the USA, which plans to set up a missile defence system in South Korea, known as the Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD), which the US says is needed to protect its regional allies from North Korea. Beijing views the deployment as a threat to its military. Three days earlier, a US report says, Russia carried out the second test of its 3M22 Zircon glider, according to the Beacon. China mounted third hypersonic ‘Wu-14’ missile test. Last week, Beijing tested its newest intercontinental ballistic missile, the DF-41 which has a range of at least 12,000km – on April 12.
The key areas where the Pentagon will focus its budget under the strategy are anti-access and area-denial, guided munitions; undersea warfare; cyber and electronic warfare; and new operating concepts. The USA hopes this will provide ways to neutralise threats from China and Russia’s militaries, which are growing increasingly sophisticated but continue to rely heavily on conventional weapons.
China said in its annual defence white paper last year it would not engage in an arms race in outer space or with nuclear weapons. Beijing-based military expert Li Jie said China was trying to use the DF-ZF test to warn the US that the PLA had another powerful weapon capable of countering the THAAD system. The DF-ZF is so far one of the offset weapons owned by China that could break the THAAD system. The glider can travel up to 11,300km/h, said the Beacon, citing Pentagon officials familiar with details of the test.
The Pentagon has kept a close eye on the development of the DF-ZF since it was first tested in January 2014. The program was progressing rapidly and could be ready for deployment by 2020, according to the latest annual report submitted to congress by the Sino-US Economic and Security Review Commission. A more powerful version was also in development and could be fielded by 2025, it said. Russia’s 3M22 vehicle was expected to enter into production in 2018, according to the US diplomatic and defence magazine.
China hailed the first test of hypersonic nuclear missile carrier . China’s second hypersonic glider test failed as PLA trials nuclear weapons delivery system. China has no other choice, especially as the US has taken a series of provocative moves to get involved in China’s territorial disputes with other Asian countries in the South China Sea. The US deployment of six powerful A-10 Thunderbolt fighter jets to conduct a drill near the Scarborough Shoal, which China occupies but Manila also claims, is just one.
On 15 January, 2014 China flight-tested a hypersonic missile delivery vehicle capable of penetrating any existing defence system with nuclear warheads, the Pentagon confirmed it. In fact, the hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV), dubbed the “Wu-14” by the United States, was detected flying at 10 times the speed of sound during a test flight over China last week. A Pentagon spokesman later confirmed the report but declined to provide details. “We routinely monitor foreign defence activities and we are aware of the test,” Marine Corpsc spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Jeffery Pool told the Beacon.
Chinese military experts hailed the test as a breakthrough. It makes China the second country after the USA to have successfully tested a hypersonic delivery vehicle capable of carrying nuclear warheads at a speed above Mach 10.
Such a weapon has long been seen as a game-changer by security experts as it can hit a target before any of the existing missile defence systems can react. Once deployed, it could significantly boost China’s strategic and conventional missile force. It is designed to be carried by an intercontinental ballistic missile. Once it reaches an undisclosed sub-orbital altitude, the vehicle jettisons from the rocket and nose-dives towards the target at a speed of Mach 10, or 12,359km/h. In 2010, the US tested the Lockheed HTV-2 – a similar delivery vehicle capable of reaching speeds of up to Mach 20. Russia and India are also known to be working on such a weapon.
Researchers on hypersonic flight control at Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics said they were not surprised by the test last week because China was technologically ready. The objective of hypersonic vehicles was to outmaneuver and penetrate a missile defence system. “With a speed of Mach 10 or higher, it cannot be caught or tracked because defence systems don’t have enough time to respond,” one researcher Wang said. She said the US remained the indisputable leader in the field but no country was ready to deploy the first practical hypersonic missile as many technological challenges remained. One outstanding issue was how to achieve precise flight control at such high speeds.
Scientists are also trying to develop a better “super material” that can withstand the high temperatures during hypersonic flights. Action is just the beginning and many tests would be carried out after last week’s flight to solve the problems. The hypersonic weapons were of strategic and tactical importance to China. Many technical issues have not been solved and no country has made it ready for use in the field. But it is a challenge.
Clearly, China is on course to overtake USA in missile related technology. Last week’s test shows that China has managed to close the gaps with the USA, forcing American war strategists to predict, as usual, a war with China. Chinese scientists said China had put enormous investment into the project. More than 100 teams from leading research institutes and universities have been involved in the project.
Purpose-built facilities test various parts of the weapons system. The Chinese Academy of Sciences, for instance, has recently built one of the world’s largest and most advanced hypersonic wind tunnels to simulate flights at up to Mach 15 at the Institute of Mechanics in Beijing.
China might still need some time to catch up with the USA in global power politics, but that day could arrive sooner than many expect. This causes definite worry in Washington. High precision missiles will play a dominant role in warfare and China has a very clear idea of what is important.
The Chinese decision to build artificial islands in the South China Sea is a well-planned action to boost efficacy of its military system.
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