2 May 2016

** Are The Ottoman Empire's Borders Relevant Today?

By George Friedman



The Muslim Ottoman Empire lasted for about six centuries before it collapsed after World War I. At one point its forces had penetrated as far as Vienna. Its power was enormous and enduring.
Every week we share a map and analysis with our paid subscribers. This week's map shows the extent of the empire in the late 19th/early 20th century, long after it was past its prime. You can see from this map how extensive its power still was. You can also see how finely it parsed its empire into small provinces. The reason for this was partly a matter of efficiency. It was also the recognition, however imperfect, of the deep divisions that existed within its empire.

In Turkey, what was left of the Ottoman Empire, the divisions were welded together by Kamal Atatürk. In the Middle East, the British and the French created new states. They are the ones that currently exist. Compare the way the Europeans organized the region with how the Ottomans did. North Africa was left as it had been. But in the Middle East, the British and French fused the various provinces into nations like Syria and Iraq, in spite of the differences between the provinces.

The Ottomans understood the region and created small, manageable and reasonably harmonious provinces. The British and French fused them together. Because of the underlying divisions within these new nations they could only be held together by an outside force or a domestic dictator, and when those weakened, the old divisions emerged with a vengeance.

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