News from the Middle East has focused attention among policy makers over the past five years. The rise and fall of the Arab Spring, the slow dissolution of Syria, conflicts rising in Yemen and Libya and, of course, the rise of the so-called Islamic State in Iraq and Syria all play a part. Through all of this, American policymakers, as those elsewhere, have worked to find targeted responses to events -- ideally to defuse conflict, but where necessary to manage or contain it.
However, a far bigger and more fundamental strategic change has been taking place: the re-emergence of Iran into the international community. The consequences of this change will be profound, and yet many in Washington have been blind to them. While the rising tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran over the last few days should have clarified the importance of Iran's regional rise, the proverb "See no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil" seems still to be Washington's overriding response.
Led by the U.S. State Department, the Obama administration focused during its second term on working with the other U.N. Permanent Five members (the United Kingdom, Russia, France, and China), Germany, and the European Union to complete a nuclear deal with Iran. This was eventually signed this past summer. There was a strong sense of "mission accomplished" among some of the U.S. foreign policy elite (excepting its Middle East experts). This view is as wrong today as it was in 2003 when President George W. Bush used that phrase to describe the end of major combat operations in Iraq.
Unfortunately, the politicians and the public are largely reinforcing this sentiment. The long game doesn't sell well politically, so Republicans aren't focused on it. Democrats are so determined that the nuclear deal be a success that they aren't talking about its repercussions. Meanwhile, most Americans are so tired of hearing about the Middle East that they too are happy to avoid thinking about the longer-term consequences of transition in the region.
Those who understand the Middle East, however, know that the situation is likely to get worse before it gets better. Assuming the nuclear deal continues to move forward (and this is a big assumption), Iran's return from the cold will have serious implications for regional and global stability.
The struggles being fought today are geopolitical clashes of great powers. While the focus has been on how the United States and China are going to manage their geopolitical rivalry, a similar battle between Saudi Arabia and Iran has also been playing out. Iran's rise threatens Saudi Arabia and is inflaming sectarian divides across the Middle East.
Without concerted and sustained efforts by the international community, this dynamic is likely to result in increasing violence and refugee flows. Extremism along with terrorist acts will likely expand against those who are perceived to be taking sides. The arms race, currently in its earliest stages, will develop and, before long, could go nuclear. And, of course, the implications for oil production and pricing will be felt around the world.
To be fair, the United States does not have the power to resolve this tension. We should all be aware of America's limitations. This is a centuries-old conflict, and the United States is a bit player. At the same time, Washington does have some leverage with the main antagonists, as well as with their supporters. And, through a lack of awareness, its actions have huge potential for harm.
It is election season in the United States, a period when the views of America's more extreme factions predominate. Now more than ever, a coherent and calm U.S. policy and message towards Iran, Saudi Arabia, and others in the region is important. Come January 2017, there will be a new U.S. president who will, putting rhetoric (and Donald Trump) aside, maintain a similar path toward Iran and Saudi Arabia as has President Obama. America needs to get it right now.
It is vital that the United States wakes up to the consequences of its geopolitical actions in the Middle East region and starts to listen more carefully, to see more clearly, and to speak and act with more understanding and nuance. It will have to manage its ally Saudi Arabia's newfound adventurism with Iran's re-emergence as a regional power. And to do this it will need to work more closely with others in the region and beyond. Plotting the right path could be Obama's greatest legacy; getting it wrong, however, could be something with which his children's children have to live.
Xenia Wickett is the project director of the US Project at Chatham House.
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