Rahul Bhonsle
Apr 22, 2016
http://www.security-risks.com/security-trends-south-asia/pakistan/pakistan-sharif-versus-sharif-round-two-6242.html
Panama Papers Unleashes Political “War.”
Pakistan’s political class which comprises of the two main parties – Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and the, “outlier,” Pakistan Army is at, “war,” with the two Sharif’s – PML-N Chief and Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Chief of the Army Staff Raheel Sharif holding centre stage.
The other political groups in the country be it the Pakistan Tehreek Insaaf (PTI) led by former cricketer Imran Khan or the various branches of the Jamaat e Islami are side actors in this drama that is unfolding in the wake of the Panama Papers revelations.
The implication of the Sharif siblings – daughter and sons of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, Maryam, Hasan, and Hussain, has given a handle to the Pakistan Army.
The Chief, who represents institutional interest as much as his own, is naturally expected to exploit the situation,
General Sharif’s stock post Operation Zarb E Azb is at an all time high. Some as Aqil Shah, author of, “The Army and Democracy: Military Politics in Pakistan,” claim that this is due to the projection by chief of the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) Director General ISPR Asim Bajwa through savvy use of social media and the control over the mainstream by the Inter-Services Intelligence media wing.
Nawaz Sharif, however, is an eternal survivor much like his PPP counterpart co-chair of the Party Asif Ali Zardari, who is presently ensconced in Dubai. Zardari is in a self-imposed exile after he remarked that military leadership comes and goes, but the political masters have longevity. These comments came after the army operation in Karachi targeted many PPP supporters unravelling some of the major corruption cases which irked Zardari. The PPP Co-chair was also unhappy with Nawaz Sharif for not holding his hand given the past concord between the two parties to stand up against the military curiously known as the Charter of Democracy.
Under similar conspiratorial circumstances in 2014, Nawaz Sharif survived the Islamabad sit-in by the PTI of Imran Khan and Tahirul Qadri of the Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT). That was Round one in the battle between Sharif and Sharif.
Round Two Commences Nawaz in London
The wealth of the Nawaz Sharif family, as well as the Zardari, is no secret in Pakistan. In the paternal, feudalistic society of the country, accumulation of wealth by industrialists, real estate developers and landlords is seen as a sign of power and no questions are asked as to the source of the income.
Most of the wealth of the first two families and their cronies is now deployed abroad on evidence that has been revealed in the Panama Papers. Asif Ali Zardari being far shrewder than Mr Nawaz Sharif has adopted more devious channels of investment than the Panama Papers, though the name of late Benazir Bhutto crops up along with some of his cronies. Thus despite the hue and cry made by the PTI Chief Imran Khan not much was expected to come out of the Panama Papers revelation with a judicial commission exonerating the Prime Minister of any financial wrong doing. No questions on the morality of a national leaders progeny deploying funds abroad even as the country’s finances are in a dire state were likely to be asked.
Mr. Nawaz Sharif went on a sojourn to London for a health check up, pictures of his visiting a tony high street London shop displaying marquee suits were flashed across the Pakistan media. So much for the health check-up.
Many including a prominent TV channel in India ran stories that Nawaz was not likely to return to Pakistan, and a coup was in the offing.
Army Chief Seeks Accountability
But the Prime Minister is made of sterner stuff, much as General Raheel Sharif wields the collective power of the Army, Nawaz has seen off two military generals before him and is expected to ride the wave this time also. Or will he, remains a major question so far?
Seeing that Mr. Sharif is not likely to budge, the Army Chief made a strong statement that the war against terrorism requires larger accountability. This was followed by the news of relief of seven senior officers of the Pakistan Army on charges of corruption. This includes serving three and two-star generals, Lt Gen Obaidullah Khattak, Maj Gen Ejaz Shahid, Brigadier Asad Shahzada, Brigadier Saifullah, Brigadier Amir and Col Haider.
The conspiracy theories which are abundant in Pakistan are now rife with some claiming that this was a signal to the Prime Minister that he has to leave.
Others saw the Army Chief targeting his predecessor General Pervez Ashraf Kiyani, whose brothers have been implicated in some of the scandals.
Raheel Sharif was no favourite of Kiyani, who had given him a more or less ceremonial post of Inspector General for Training and Evaluation. This may also have been the reason why Nawaz Sharif selected him as the Chief, but as in the previous instances may come to rue this decision.
Nawaz Hits Back
During his London visit, Mr. Nawaz Sharif was to meet the PPP Co-Chair Asif Ali Zardari but apparently there was only a phone call made by the latter. Sharif knows that to fight the Army he needs Zardari on his side and there could have been a compact between the two; we will not know for now.
Suffice to say the PPP has been soft on Nawaz and has allowed the PTI to take the lead in raising the ante much to the chagrin of some of its cadres, but for Mr. Zardari at the moment, the game is much larger than the downfall of the PMLN.
The PML-N earned an overwhelming majority in the elections in 2013, and the appeal by the PTI of fraud during the polls has been recently dismissed thus constitutionally Nawaz Sharif’s Party cannot be removed from power only the Prime Minister could be coerced into resigning.
Thus beefed by his high political position constitutionally Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, in his address to the nation on 22 April, said he will resign and go home if proven guilty by the Panama Papers probe. "I challenge all those who allege tax fraud to come forward and present evidence. If charges are proved against me, I will resign immediately," vowed Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.
General Sharif’s Image and Possibility of a Coup
General Raheel Sharif, who announced against seeking an extension of his tenure which ends in November this year, is possibly playing a high stakes game. A military coup is not likely for the Army Chief knows that in this day and age there is no scope for the same inviting immediate sanctions apart from grave reproof from the international community. Moreover, as the chair of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), Pakistan is due to hold a summit later in November which will go well with a civilian head of government.
Some see in him a reformer, a messiah of sorts who is cleaning up the system so to say of corrupt politicians many of whom have been accused of being agents of the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) the Indian intelligence agency.
The head of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) Mr. Altaf Hussain has been reduced to a nonentity on these and other charges of money laundering which have yet to be proved. The MQM is in disarray in Karachi yet in recent by-elections won handsomely indicating the mood of the people.
With Zardari out of the way and Imran Khan is seen as a greenhorn in Pakistani politics who can be manipulated by the Army, Nawaz Sharif is the only thorn. The Panama Papers have provided just such an opportunity to be rid of him.
But what next if the Army does not want to take over power in the country bodes answer.
Is General Raheel Sharif planning a post-retirement political career for himself? That may be too ambitious for he would be confronted in that case, not just by the other political parties but also the Army he commanded whose next Chief will adopt as independent a stance as General Sharif.
We are entering a grey area here which needs further exploration.
India’s Continued Dilemma?
For India, the situation in Pakistan comes when there is a question mark over recommencement of Foreign Secretary talks, investigation of the Pathankot terrorist attacks and revelations of the unfortunate former Navy Commander Jadhav’s apprehension as an alleged RAW agent by Pakistan.
Supporting the political class remains the answer for the Modi government which in August 2014 called off the talks when there was turmoil in Pakistan possibly believing that Mr. Nawaz Sharif was weak and may go? This time around avoiding the same presumption is important. While some propose opening direct channels with the Pakistan Army, that is an uncharted territory which is unlikely to lead to positive outcomes.
Adventurism by the Pakistan Army through its proxies at this stage cannot be ruled out. Thus, the guard will have to continue to be up on the counter-terrorism front.
On the political and diplomatic front, waiting for a favourable opportunity for engagement remains an option that may be exercised now that everything else does not seem to be working.
Apr 22, 2016
http://www.security-risks.com/security-trends-south-asia/pakistan/pakistan-sharif-versus-sharif-round-two-6242.html
Panama Papers Unleashes Political “War.”
Pakistan’s political class which comprises of the two main parties – Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and the, “outlier,” Pakistan Army is at, “war,” with the two Sharif’s – PML-N Chief and Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Chief of the Army Staff Raheel Sharif holding centre stage.
The other political groups in the country be it the Pakistan Tehreek Insaaf (PTI) led by former cricketer Imran Khan or the various branches of the Jamaat e Islami are side actors in this drama that is unfolding in the wake of the Panama Papers revelations.
The implication of the Sharif siblings – daughter and sons of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, Maryam, Hasan, and Hussain, has given a handle to the Pakistan Army.
The Chief, who represents institutional interest as much as his own, is naturally expected to exploit the situation,
General Sharif’s stock post Operation Zarb E Azb is at an all time high. Some as Aqil Shah, author of, “The Army and Democracy: Military Politics in Pakistan,” claim that this is due to the projection by chief of the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) Director General ISPR Asim Bajwa through savvy use of social media and the control over the mainstream by the Inter-Services Intelligence media wing.
Nawaz Sharif, however, is an eternal survivor much like his PPP counterpart co-chair of the Party Asif Ali Zardari, who is presently ensconced in Dubai. Zardari is in a self-imposed exile after he remarked that military leadership comes and goes, but the political masters have longevity. These comments came after the army operation in Karachi targeted many PPP supporters unravelling some of the major corruption cases which irked Zardari. The PPP Co-chair was also unhappy with Nawaz Sharif for not holding his hand given the past concord between the two parties to stand up against the military curiously known as the Charter of Democracy.
Under similar conspiratorial circumstances in 2014, Nawaz Sharif survived the Islamabad sit-in by the PTI of Imran Khan and Tahirul Qadri of the Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT). That was Round one in the battle between Sharif and Sharif.
Round Two Commences Nawaz in London
The wealth of the Nawaz Sharif family, as well as the Zardari, is no secret in Pakistan. In the paternal, feudalistic society of the country, accumulation of wealth by industrialists, real estate developers and landlords is seen as a sign of power and no questions are asked as to the source of the income.
Most of the wealth of the first two families and their cronies is now deployed abroad on evidence that has been revealed in the Panama Papers. Asif Ali Zardari being far shrewder than Mr Nawaz Sharif has adopted more devious channels of investment than the Panama Papers, though the name of late Benazir Bhutto crops up along with some of his cronies. Thus despite the hue and cry made by the PTI Chief Imran Khan not much was expected to come out of the Panama Papers revelation with a judicial commission exonerating the Prime Minister of any financial wrong doing. No questions on the morality of a national leaders progeny deploying funds abroad even as the country’s finances are in a dire state were likely to be asked.
Mr. Nawaz Sharif went on a sojourn to London for a health check up, pictures of his visiting a tony high street London shop displaying marquee suits were flashed across the Pakistan media. So much for the health check-up.
Many including a prominent TV channel in India ran stories that Nawaz was not likely to return to Pakistan, and a coup was in the offing.
Army Chief Seeks Accountability
But the Prime Minister is made of sterner stuff, much as General Raheel Sharif wields the collective power of the Army, Nawaz has seen off two military generals before him and is expected to ride the wave this time also. Or will he, remains a major question so far?
Seeing that Mr. Sharif is not likely to budge, the Army Chief made a strong statement that the war against terrorism requires larger accountability. This was followed by the news of relief of seven senior officers of the Pakistan Army on charges of corruption. This includes serving three and two-star generals, Lt Gen Obaidullah Khattak, Maj Gen Ejaz Shahid, Brigadier Asad Shahzada, Brigadier Saifullah, Brigadier Amir and Col Haider.
The conspiracy theories which are abundant in Pakistan are now rife with some claiming that this was a signal to the Prime Minister that he has to leave.
Others saw the Army Chief targeting his predecessor General Pervez Ashraf Kiyani, whose brothers have been implicated in some of the scandals.
Raheel Sharif was no favourite of Kiyani, who had given him a more or less ceremonial post of Inspector General for Training and Evaluation. This may also have been the reason why Nawaz Sharif selected him as the Chief, but as in the previous instances may come to rue this decision.
Nawaz Hits Back
During his London visit, Mr. Nawaz Sharif was to meet the PPP Co-Chair Asif Ali Zardari but apparently there was only a phone call made by the latter. Sharif knows that to fight the Army he needs Zardari on his side and there could have been a compact between the two; we will not know for now.
Suffice to say the PPP has been soft on Nawaz and has allowed the PTI to take the lead in raising the ante much to the chagrin of some of its cadres, but for Mr. Zardari at the moment, the game is much larger than the downfall of the PMLN.
The PML-N earned an overwhelming majority in the elections in 2013, and the appeal by the PTI of fraud during the polls has been recently dismissed thus constitutionally Nawaz Sharif’s Party cannot be removed from power only the Prime Minister could be coerced into resigning.
Thus beefed by his high political position constitutionally Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, in his address to the nation on 22 April, said he will resign and go home if proven guilty by the Panama Papers probe. "I challenge all those who allege tax fraud to come forward and present evidence. If charges are proved against me, I will resign immediately," vowed Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.
General Sharif’s Image and Possibility of a Coup
General Raheel Sharif, who announced against seeking an extension of his tenure which ends in November this year, is possibly playing a high stakes game. A military coup is not likely for the Army Chief knows that in this day and age there is no scope for the same inviting immediate sanctions apart from grave reproof from the international community. Moreover, as the chair of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), Pakistan is due to hold a summit later in November which will go well with a civilian head of government.
Some see in him a reformer, a messiah of sorts who is cleaning up the system so to say of corrupt politicians many of whom have been accused of being agents of the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) the Indian intelligence agency.
The head of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) Mr. Altaf Hussain has been reduced to a nonentity on these and other charges of money laundering which have yet to be proved. The MQM is in disarray in Karachi yet in recent by-elections won handsomely indicating the mood of the people.
With Zardari out of the way and Imran Khan is seen as a greenhorn in Pakistani politics who can be manipulated by the Army, Nawaz Sharif is the only thorn. The Panama Papers have provided just such an opportunity to be rid of him.
But what next if the Army does not want to take over power in the country bodes answer.
Is General Raheel Sharif planning a post-retirement political career for himself? That may be too ambitious for he would be confronted in that case, not just by the other political parties but also the Army he commanded whose next Chief will adopt as independent a stance as General Sharif.
We are entering a grey area here which needs further exploration.
India’s Continued Dilemma?
For India, the situation in Pakistan comes when there is a question mark over recommencement of Foreign Secretary talks, investigation of the Pathankot terrorist attacks and revelations of the unfortunate former Navy Commander Jadhav’s apprehension as an alleged RAW agent by Pakistan.
Supporting the political class remains the answer for the Modi government which in August 2014 called off the talks when there was turmoil in Pakistan possibly believing that Mr. Nawaz Sharif was weak and may go? This time around avoiding the same presumption is important. While some propose opening direct channels with the Pakistan Army, that is an uncharted territory which is unlikely to lead to positive outcomes.
Adventurism by the Pakistan Army through its proxies at this stage cannot be ruled out. Thus, the guard will have to continue to be up on the counter-terrorism front.
On the political and diplomatic front, waiting for a favourable opportunity for engagement remains an option that may be exercised now that everything else does not seem to be working.
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