http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2016/04/17/russia-sets-sights-on-us-rebalance-in-asia/
Last Tuesday, Russia expressed solidarity with China unequivocally for the first time, perhaps, on the South China Sea issue. During a rare joint interview by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov with Japanese and Chinese journalists in Moscow, he framed the Russian position stance in reply to a question by the Chinese journalist who referred to “tensions (that) have recently flared up again” in the South China Sea:
Regarding the situation in the South China Sea, we proceed from the following premise. All states involved in these disputes must respect the principle of the non-use of military force and continue searching for mutually acceptable political and diplomatic solutions. It is necessary to stop any interference in the talks between the concerned states and any attempts to internationalise these disputes. We have provided active support for the willingness of China and ASEAN economies to advance towards this goal.
Many attempts have been made (by “external parties”) there to internationalise the issues related to the South China Sea dispute… these attempts are counterproductive. Only negotiations, which China and the ASEAN countries… are conducting, will produce the desired result, that is, a mutually acceptable agreement.
Beijing, of course, is delighted. The Foreign Ministry was quick to respond on the very next day:
China speaks highly of Russia’s remarks. Any person, organization and country that is truly concerned about peace and stability in the South China Sea should support China and relevant countries in this region, or countries directly involved to be specific, in resolving possible disputes through negotiation and coordination… It is not constructive for any country or organization outside the region to hype up the South China Sea issue, play up or provoke tensions and drive a wedge between regional countries. What they do might derail the settlement of the South China Sea issue from the right track.
China would particularly take note that Lavrov’s remarks came soon after a G-7 statement last week made an implicit criticism of Beijing for allegedly indulging in “intimidating, coercive or provocative unilateral actions that could alter the status quo and increase tensions” on the South China Sea (AFP).
Lavrov’s media interaction would have been equally gratifying to Beijing for the forceful remarks he made underscoring Moscow’s determination to establish a naval base on the disputed Kuril Islands (which Japan claims its territory.) Lavrov told the Japanese correspondent:
Today, the Arctic is increasingly opening up for economic development… The use of the Northern Sea Route is objectively becoming invigorated… it will eventually become a very useful and effective route for the transit of goods between Europe and Asia.. we, as a littoral state, bear a special responsibility for ensuring not only the route’s effectiveness but also its safety. It is essential to ensure reliable and effective control not only over sea areas but also over the coast along these areas… All of these objectives cannot be achieved without restoring the infrastructure, including military infrastructure, which was almost completely lost in the 1990s.
Regarding the Kuril Islands, these are the eastern boundaries of the Russian Federation… Needless to say, planning measures to strengthen military infrastructure relating to border territories is natural for any state. These are the Far Eastern borders of our country and we are duty bound to ensure their security. We will do all we can to achieve this goal.
Again, this would be the first time, perhaps, that Russia has openly co-related its intention to dominate the sea lanes in the so-called Kuril-Kamchatka Trench with its concerns in the Arctic region and with the Northern Sea Route in particular.
Japan won’t like this because the Kuril-Kamchatka Trench lies off the southeast coast of Kamchatka and parallels the Kuril Island chain to meet the Japan Trench east of Hokkaido. By the way, in 1875 Russia had ceded the Kuril Islands to Japan in return for sovereignty over Sakhalin; and, today Russia claims Kuril as its territory, which makes the Sea of Okhotsk (which has the Japanese island of Hokkaido in the south) a virtual Russian lake.
It is useful to recall that in the Cold War era, Sea of Okhotsk was a theatre of intense US navy operations aimed at intercepting Soviet Navy’s undersea communications cables. (A Korean Airlines flight that strayed into the region, possibly on espionage mission, was shot down in a sensational incident 1983.) The Sea of Okhotsk used to be a massive ballistic missile submarine bastion in the Soviet era. Obviously, Russia is resurrecting and modernizing the infrastructure and reviving the Soviet Pacific Fleet against the backdrop of the rivalry with the US that is intensifying in the Arctic and in the context of the US’ rebalance in Asia.
To be sure, Russia has begun responding to the growing US military presence in Northeast Asia on the pretext of containing North Korea. (Lavrov bluntly said that the North Korea problem does not justify the deployment of the US missile defence system in Japan and South Korea and that Moscow and Beijing have shared concerns over the issue.) These strong undercurrents also explain the strong criticism Lavrov levelled at Japan for lacking an independent foreign policy and instead meekly submitting to the American regional strategies as a junior partner.
The American analysts increasingly estimate that Russia’s transfer of advanced weapon systems to China is of a piece with the Russian counter-strategy against the US’ rebalance in Asia (here and here).
It is unclear how far the Indian policymakers factor in these important shifts in the geopolitics of the Asia-Pacific. Without doubt, Washington has a game plan under the rubric of the “strategic handshake” with New Delhi, namely, to create an alliance system in Asia under the US leadership that includes India, Japan and Australia.
Suffice it to say, the persistent US efforts to draw India into undertaking “joint patrols” with the US Navy in the South China Sea and to gain access to Indian military bases, etc. as well as the refrain that its rebalance strategy and India’s “Act East” are complementing each other (as the visiting US defence Secretary Ashton Carter told PM Narendra Modi last week) need to be put in proper perspective.
The bottom line is as to what India stands to gain by identifying with the US’ containment strategies against Russia and China. The transcript of Lavrov’s remarks throws much light on the shift in the tectonic plates of big-power politics in Northeast Asia ensuing from the US’ pivot to Asia. (Transcript)
Last Tuesday, Russia expressed solidarity with China unequivocally for the first time, perhaps, on the South China Sea issue. During a rare joint interview by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov with Japanese and Chinese journalists in Moscow, he framed the Russian position stance in reply to a question by the Chinese journalist who referred to “tensions (that) have recently flared up again” in the South China Sea:
Regarding the situation in the South China Sea, we proceed from the following premise. All states involved in these disputes must respect the principle of the non-use of military force and continue searching for mutually acceptable political and diplomatic solutions. It is necessary to stop any interference in the talks between the concerned states and any attempts to internationalise these disputes. We have provided active support for the willingness of China and ASEAN economies to advance towards this goal.
Many attempts have been made (by “external parties”) there to internationalise the issues related to the South China Sea dispute… these attempts are counterproductive. Only negotiations, which China and the ASEAN countries… are conducting, will produce the desired result, that is, a mutually acceptable agreement.
Beijing, of course, is delighted. The Foreign Ministry was quick to respond on the very next day:
China speaks highly of Russia’s remarks. Any person, organization and country that is truly concerned about peace and stability in the South China Sea should support China and relevant countries in this region, or countries directly involved to be specific, in resolving possible disputes through negotiation and coordination… It is not constructive for any country or organization outside the region to hype up the South China Sea issue, play up or provoke tensions and drive a wedge between regional countries. What they do might derail the settlement of the South China Sea issue from the right track.
China would particularly take note that Lavrov’s remarks came soon after a G-7 statement last week made an implicit criticism of Beijing for allegedly indulging in “intimidating, coercive or provocative unilateral actions that could alter the status quo and increase tensions” on the South China Sea (AFP).
Lavrov’s media interaction would have been equally gratifying to Beijing for the forceful remarks he made underscoring Moscow’s determination to establish a naval base on the disputed Kuril Islands (which Japan claims its territory.) Lavrov told the Japanese correspondent:
Today, the Arctic is increasingly opening up for economic development… The use of the Northern Sea Route is objectively becoming invigorated… it will eventually become a very useful and effective route for the transit of goods between Europe and Asia.. we, as a littoral state, bear a special responsibility for ensuring not only the route’s effectiveness but also its safety. It is essential to ensure reliable and effective control not only over sea areas but also over the coast along these areas… All of these objectives cannot be achieved without restoring the infrastructure, including military infrastructure, which was almost completely lost in the 1990s.
Regarding the Kuril Islands, these are the eastern boundaries of the Russian Federation… Needless to say, planning measures to strengthen military infrastructure relating to border territories is natural for any state. These are the Far Eastern borders of our country and we are duty bound to ensure their security. We will do all we can to achieve this goal.
Again, this would be the first time, perhaps, that Russia has openly co-related its intention to dominate the sea lanes in the so-called Kuril-Kamchatka Trench with its concerns in the Arctic region and with the Northern Sea Route in particular.
Japan won’t like this because the Kuril-Kamchatka Trench lies off the southeast coast of Kamchatka and parallels the Kuril Island chain to meet the Japan Trench east of Hokkaido. By the way, in 1875 Russia had ceded the Kuril Islands to Japan in return for sovereignty over Sakhalin; and, today Russia claims Kuril as its territory, which makes the Sea of Okhotsk (which has the Japanese island of Hokkaido in the south) a virtual Russian lake.
It is useful to recall that in the Cold War era, Sea of Okhotsk was a theatre of intense US navy operations aimed at intercepting Soviet Navy’s undersea communications cables. (A Korean Airlines flight that strayed into the region, possibly on espionage mission, was shot down in a sensational incident 1983.) The Sea of Okhotsk used to be a massive ballistic missile submarine bastion in the Soviet era. Obviously, Russia is resurrecting and modernizing the infrastructure and reviving the Soviet Pacific Fleet against the backdrop of the rivalry with the US that is intensifying in the Arctic and in the context of the US’ rebalance in Asia.
To be sure, Russia has begun responding to the growing US military presence in Northeast Asia on the pretext of containing North Korea. (Lavrov bluntly said that the North Korea problem does not justify the deployment of the US missile defence system in Japan and South Korea and that Moscow and Beijing have shared concerns over the issue.) These strong undercurrents also explain the strong criticism Lavrov levelled at Japan for lacking an independent foreign policy and instead meekly submitting to the American regional strategies as a junior partner.
The American analysts increasingly estimate that Russia’s transfer of advanced weapon systems to China is of a piece with the Russian counter-strategy against the US’ rebalance in Asia (here and here).
It is unclear how far the Indian policymakers factor in these important shifts in the geopolitics of the Asia-Pacific. Without doubt, Washington has a game plan under the rubric of the “strategic handshake” with New Delhi, namely, to create an alliance system in Asia under the US leadership that includes India, Japan and Australia.
Suffice it to say, the persistent US efforts to draw India into undertaking “joint patrols” with the US Navy in the South China Sea and to gain access to Indian military bases, etc. as well as the refrain that its rebalance strategy and India’s “Act East” are complementing each other (as the visiting US defence Secretary Ashton Carter told PM Narendra Modi last week) need to be put in proper perspective.
The bottom line is as to what India stands to gain by identifying with the US’ containment strategies against Russia and China. The transcript of Lavrov’s remarks throws much light on the shift in the tectonic plates of big-power politics in Northeast Asia ensuing from the US’ pivot to Asia. (Transcript)
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