PME, DSSC Wellington and Indo China Relations

Sir,

1. I think, you like many, is missing the point I wanted to bring out. Missing the wood for the trees.

2. You may or may not agree with what Mr Shiv Menon writes. You may not agree with what Prof Mohan Guruswami writes on military domain. He is not for from the Armed Forces. There will be gaps in understanding. On my request Prof Mohan Guruswami has promptly sent his presentation after deleting some slides which may have security connotations. You can view his presentation at http://www.slideshare.net/avidas/india-china-net-assessment-dssc. Like you many have tore into Shiv Menon's talk as many who have gone gaga over it. I am not going to give any judgement, nor is it my intention. One should read other's view point : good, bad or ugly and make one's own opinion. I shall reproduce two responses received to emphasise my point. My point was refusal of Armed Forces to share anything. Two days 'seminar', best in the business, at least from DSSC perspective, gives talk/presentation to officers at the level of Majs. Surely bright as they are, will not understand the complete Gamut. It needs to be disseminated across the board in the Armed Forces. Please tell me would you be able to read these, if I have not got it from Shiv Menon himself and sent. That is the Irony.

3. I am looking for effect of recent Chinese Modernisation of 'PLA' on our Armed Forces. It has to be done by some military professional. The availability of PLA forces in Longzhou or Chengdu Military Regions is known, the airfields, surface, train and other communication means are known, the capability of missiles, space are known. Various arcs, where all they reach are known. People from the civilian background is asking question what are you doing. One civilian recently asked me : As per % of GDP on expenditure of defence we are at the lowest below 2%, with Pay Commission, OROP revenue expenditure has shot up, no money for weapon, eqpt, amn. Do you really need Mountain Strike Corps, can you sustain that with the kind of funds available. What kind of reorg armed forces can undertake. Do Indian Army need to change their war fighting doctrine against Chinese, etc etc etc.

4. Where is that Chinese expert from Indian military who is writing on these issues. Recently I attended a seminar at ORF on Modernisation of PLA. Manoj Joshi had published on Op Edit, he spoke also. Nothing new. Our ack expert on China, Ex DA presently Comdt, AWC; on the verge of retirement gave a far better presentation. But the Indian connection, analysis was missing. Information is available, see Jamestown Foundation China Brief, CSIS Papers , Rand Reports or my vey own China page in my blog. What is critical and important is analysis. We can keep criticising others BUT where are we. That is the point I repeatedly try to hammer into. I have heard that vendor Ashley Tellis in a seminar at USA giving a far better view on effect of Chinese military modernisation on Indian Armed Forces. I have nothing against Ashley Tellis, he is looking after US interest, India is the big defence eqpt market, he is now propagating India should purchase A110 Warthrog! What irritates me is we Indians fawn over him.

5. You can analysis only when you read! That is why I have been advocating distribution of knowledge. Kindly click on DSSC website in Internet. You will get photographs and monthly newsletter. So many foreign officers are being trained there. The Govt is spending so much money. Can't you be more professional. I have been telling since donkeys years for sharing presentations/thesis, there is nothing classified about it. If you go to Dissertation page of my knowledge on line website @ http://indianstrategicknowledgeonline.com/index.php?t=Dissertations you get 450 thesis from Armed Forces War Colleges of Western origin. Our officers who became Chiefs/C-in-Cs, their dissertations while undergoing course abroad, I had put. But our DSSC/AWC/refuses to do. NDC, at the top of the value chain, who does not come under anybody, MoD does not care, can do whatever it feels like, does not budge. Not because lack of effort from my side, I can guarantee you that. Cat 'A' ests with so much resources and infrastructure refuse to do which an One Man Army has shown what can be done. It is not that, people at the helm of affairs don't know. One of the Ex GOC-in-C ARTRAC sent me a book authored by him on his achievements replete with very good photographs including his horse riding, attending parties etc. These were given to every Gentlemen Cadets passing out from IMA and OTA. He wanted some good words to be written about the book. Some good words quoted in the book were from a veteran two star, which I suspect, I may be wrong, was from his father. The other one was from a well respected veteran, who probably out of decency or may be looking from some invite from ARTRAC sponsored event gave some encouraging words.

6. I wanted to write some acidic comments but better sense prevailed and since he was a serving Army Commander I did not wield my pen. Coming back to the main issue. Let me narrate a stroy. Rabindra Nath Tagore was the youngest of 13 siblings. All his elder brothers were great people in their own rights. Satyendra Nath Tagore was the first ICS among Indians. 

7. The eldest brother was Dwijendra Nath, a great philosopher. His philosophical work, Tattwabidya ("Knowledge of Principles"), published in three volumes between 1866 and 1868, was a pioneering effort in Bengali. In 1896, he published Adwaita Mater Samalochana (Criticism of Adwaita philosophy) and in 1899, Aryadharma O Bouddha Dharmer Ghat-Protighat (a book on the conflicts of Aryan religion [Hinduism] and Buddhism). Dwijendra Nath followed the advice of the Upanishads – After acquiring knowledge remain a child at heart. There was no limit to his acquisition of knowledge but his main field of study was philosophy. Rabindranath used to call him borodada (reverential way of saying eldest brother). He was a pioneer in many spheres of far-reaching importance. He invented the shorthand in 'Bengali and wrote a manual on it in verse! He wrote a book on Geometry in which the 12th Axiom had been replaced by new ones. His writings on Boxometry, or science of paper-folding have fascinated scholars of mathematics. the 12th Axiom had been replaced by new ones. Dwijendra Nath used to live in a thatched hut built around a Palm Tree, called Tala Dwaj. His friendship with sparrows, squirrels and crows became legends in Santiniketan. Whenever Rabindra Nath used to go and come back from his tours, first thing he used to do, is to go and meet Dwijendra Nath at Shantiniketan and discuss world affairs. He was loved and respected by all. He was considered as a Rishi.

8. Like many of his tribes, Dwijendra Nath was absent minded. There was a popular saying in Shantinietan there were times he used to look around for people for debate (Tarka). He asked, I don't mind whether you take the side of Kant or Hegel. Whichever side you take I shall be the opposite. But lets have the debate. It is said that people used to run away seeing the absence minded Rishi looking for people to debate!

9. Point is not what Shiv Menon writes, whether it is right or wrong. Point is where is the debate? Where is Armed Forces.

10. I rest my case.

--- PKM

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Dear Sir,

PME, DSSC Wellington and Indo China Relations

1. Where as you have taken a U turn post retirement and mellowed down, I have become honest and candid, otherwise as I pass by 80 years when will it be. That is what Brig Arun Sahgal advised to do and not worry about consequences.

Why it is so. Every single day, I was bumped through turbulent waters but I never lost sight of serving my Mother Land irrespective of personal agony heaped on me by those around me. My one Course Mate as Rear Admiral told me once that--Prem you work very hard but there is a difference between a thoroughbred and a donkey; knowing fully well, how others had climbed the ladder which I found abhorrent. I knew I was being laden as a Donkey just to keep my head bobbing up and down and find difficult to breathe. In any case, I never thought myself to be more than one Rank Higher than what I retired, realistically.

JANAB MERA PAIMANA AUR HAI. AAP KYA KEHTEIN, KAISE CHALTEIN HAEIN AUR GHODE KI CHAAL KYA HAI--TROT-CANTER-GALLOP-DUDDKI YA JUST WALKING AND TALKING FOR RECORD.

2. What is that Shiv Shankar Sahib said in his lecture that could not be surmised by an ordinary. When he was Foreign Secretary and NSA, his Doctrine was that National Security is 90% Diplomacy and 10% Military Power which should be on Leash to accelerate from 0 to 100 KMs in 6 seconds. The Gap between two Economies and Military has only increased???? What did he expect!!!! How come. Our permanent whipping horse is Democracy- a Constitutional Licence to do nothing or little. 

3. I have never been explained what and how India was doing to enhance its Economic Power but not based on Debt, Military Power but not based on imports, Poverty Alleviation but not undercut by Corruption. PAR SABB DUDH MEIN PANI MILATAY GAI. And how India was closing the gap, other than quoting some American Think Tanks. But wealth, economic and military powers cannot grow on trees. Incremental increase in itself is an admission of corruption including intellectual.

4. Where is accountability. How many heads have rolled. How many have been posted to Naxalite Hit Areas or Insurgency or Insurgency prone Areas. As once, about 12 years back, Senior Legal Pandit Shri Ram Jethalmani, as Law Minister, responding to my question at a Seminar at Indian Society of International Law--How would Right to Information help when the Bureaucracy and the Ministers Noting on Blue Minute Sheets are vague one liners or tow liners. Most do not read even the Files and Orders are verbal!!!!! Overtime he said our Bureaucracy would mature. Have they!!!!!

5. Would like to know how you tackled your subject at DSSC, Sir.

Commander Prem P Batra Retired 

With best regards,

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Raghavan Gopalaswami

to me

China, India and War on Two fronts : The China Seminar

Dear General Mallick,

In my mail sent this morning I had complimented you in enabling your readers have a very quick feedback as to what our former NSA and FS had said on 30 March 2016 as a Guest Speaker at a DSSC “China Seminar”. I had brought out that Mr. Menon had made a brilliant exposition on India-China relationships but carefully skirted the issue critical to national survival at THIS POINT IN TIME WHEN China’s diabolical relationship with Pakistan has successfully bled us to a state of weakness and ill prepared and without the will to fight a war on two fronts.

Mr. Menon’s paper brings out China’s economic strengths, how a rich nation soon proactively created a strong Army and Air Force/Navy[PLA], something we could not do because of our abject failure on the economic front for 45 years after independence; and the economy painfully picking up yet not sufficient to build a strong enough Army and Air Force for a two-front war.

He brings out how the Chinese foreign policy perspective is conditioned by its past history that was totally different from ours. Even 5% growth in China’s economy now means that she is adding India’s GDP every couple of years or so. And they believe that military spending will promote economic growth in China, what we are frantically trying to emulate just now through the “Make in India” efforts that may take many years to add even a fraction of a percent to our GDP.

While saying all this we need to keep in mind that Mr. Menon being a leading light of the previous Government will not say anything even faintly critical of the present one. But skilled diplomat as he is, he says in diplomatese in implicit terms what is up to the listeners to interpret for themselves. He comments diplomatically and implicitly : “

…….[foreign] policy choices present themselves as small, discreet, individual choices — not as grand Eureka moments of revelation or decision but as several choices scattered in time and amidst the mundane. Only cumulatively and in hindsight, in the historian’s gaze, do they amount to a grand strategy….” 

Whereas my interpretation, perhaps more explicit and relevant to national security policy, is that he means“…..its two years since the new Government took over…and I just don’t know what the hell their national security and foreign policy is all about, it’s all in bits and pieces and scattered in time amidst the mundane; and Government is unclear where it is taking us….” For he says this soon after saying:

George Kennan, the author of US containment policy towards the USSR, used to say that he could think of nothing more likely to make the US insecure than the pursuit of absolute security. One could add that nothing is more likely to make us poor than the single minded pursuit of economic growth, to the neglect of security. Clearly we need to do all these things at the same time in dealing with China….”

Clearly the message the former Government’s FS and then NSA is saying that the present Government is dangerously neglecting national security. That is why your mail is important, for please see below today’s Hindu, their Editorial “Lessons from the Chinese Veto” which brings out very clearly 

Despite China’s repeated assurances of standing firm on the issue of terrorism at the bilateral level as well as at multilateral fora such as BRICS and RIC, it has let India down time and again in the past two years. Since September 2014, when President Xi Jinping visited India, China has blocked India five times

It is no secret that while India-China business and people-to-people ties have improved over the past few years, the security relationship has flagged. A series of border incursions by Chinese troops, followed by India’s forging maritime military ties with the U.S. for coordination in the South China Sea, have increased distrust between New Delhi and Beijing, which has widened due to lack of meetings at the designated Special Envoy level for more than a year.

Added to this is China’s renewed closeness to Pakistan, and growing interests in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, making it more difficult for Beijing to hold Pakistan accountable on tricky issues such as terror […possibly because of this the Pakistan side is repeatedly humiliating our PM by negating his initiatives with the civilian Govt in Pakistan…RG]

Airing of frustration is one thing, but what is really required is deft diplomacy behind the scenes and a continued engagement with Beijing.

I am writing all this because of my concern, based on very thorough analysis, expressed as Chairman of a High Powered Committee appointed by then SA to RM Dr Kalam, a DRDO Report in 1998 circulated widely to Service Chiefs, the NSA, the CCS and presented to then RM and PM Mr. Vajpayee, that we MUST prepare for a war on two fronts with specific recommendations what is needed. This I said in 1998.

Systems analysis and modeling indicated in 1998 that we shall be facing this threat in the period 2015-19starting with war in the NE triggered by Pakistan intelligence. The Chinese claims on Arunachal Pradesh were then [1998] yet to be voiced aggressively as they are now, and the coming elections in Assam needs to be watched closely to ensure that any disaffection is not stirred up by the Pakistan’s ISI for the current Leader of the Opposition is bringing out that the election campaign in Assam is dividing Assamese society [Ref.: The Hindu, April 08, 2016 Page 15]

We have entered that critical period now. All that the former NSA said in the DSSC “China Seminar” and what the Hindu Editorial “Lessons from the Chinese Veto” brings out are for me the writing on the wall. So watch this space, dear sir, as the eminent Mr. Shivshankar Menon has said the gap between scholarship and policy in both India and China grew wider and wider. The result was conflict.

ALL OUR SCHOLARSHIP HAS BEEN OF LIMITED VALUE, IT IS NO LONGER AN ACADEMIC MATTER, THE THREAT IS VERY REAL , NO ONE IS WAITING FOR INDIA TO BE A RICH NATION AND NOW WE STAND AT THE CROSSROADS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH AND MILITARY STRENGTH, ALMOST NAKED AND VULNERABLE TO WAR ON TWO FRONTS.

Kind regards,

Gopal

The Hindu

Updated: April 8, 2016 01:54 IST

Lessons from the Chinese Veto

The Centre’s protests over China’s move to block India’s attempt at the United Nations to ban Jaish-e-Mohammed chief Masood Azhar is understandable. After all, it was Azhar along with Lashkar-e-Taiba chief Hafiz Saeed that provided the leadership for most of the terror attacks launched from Pakistan on India. Even if China awaits evidence of Azhar’s role in the Pathankot attacks, it cannot be unaware of his long association with terrorist activity, including the 2001 Parliament assault. Also, it is impossible to ignore the fact that IC-814 was hijacked and hundreds of innocent lives were endangered only in order to secure his release. Azhar is the undisputed leader of the JeM, which has been proscribed by the UN for its links with the Taliban and al-Qaeda, and it is only logical that he also comes under the ban. Despite China’s repeated assurances of standing firm on the issue of terrorism at the bilateral level as well as at multilateral fora such as BRICS and RIC, it has let India down time and again in the past two years. Since September 2014, when President Xi Jinping visited India, China has blocked India five times. For instance, India’s resolutions to have Syed Salahuddin and Azhar added to the list of proscribed terrorists were opposed. So was the call for action against Pakistan for violating the ban on Saeed and Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi. So, while the strong Indian reaction is justified, it is unlikely that the government is surprised by it. The takeaway must be that India rethinks its moves to isolate Azhar and other Pakistan-based terrorists with more effective results

Much of the problem, as the government’s statement itself acknowledges, stems from the insistence of the United Nations Security Committee on Terrorism on “unanimity” and “anonymity” for all decisions on listing terror entities, which allows China to overrule India’s efforts with a “technical hold”. It is no secret that while India-China business and people-to-people ties have improved over the past few years, the security relationship has flagged. A series of border incursions by Chinese troops, followed by India’s forging maritime military ties with the U.S. for coordination in the South China Sea, have increased distrust between New Delhi and Beijing, which has widened due to lack of meetings at the designated Special Envoy level for more than a year. Added to this is China’s renewed closeness to Pakistan, and growing interests in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, making it more difficult for Beijing to hold Pakistan accountable on tricky issues such as terror. The answer is clear: India must show that terror is not a zero-sum game and that it is willing to work with every world power in order to isolate the terrorists that continue to threaten its people. Airing of frustration is one thing, but what is really required is deft diplomacy behind the scenes and a continued engagement with Beijing. Both countries after all have a shared concern about terror, with China having its own problem in Xinjiang.