April 6, 2016
Pathankot: Pak Prefers Self-Destruction To Peace; We Should Help The ProcessR
Chances are 99.9 percent that Narendra Modi and his National Security Advisor Ajit Doval are chasing a mirage with Pakistan.
Pakistan desires India’s dismemberment, and to achieve its ends, self-destruction is acceptable to Pakistan’s Deep State, and India should aid in its destruction.
The most important lesson to learn from the expected Pathankot fiasco is that Pakistan will never give up its enmity towards India.
The only purpose that the Modi government can ever achieve by its Pakistan policy is to show the world our good faith and the terror sponsor Pakistan’s absolute perfidy. Beyond this, we have nothing to gain from hugging Nawaz Sharif or allowing a bogus Joint Investigation Team (JIT) to visit the Pathankot airbase that was targeted by Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) terrorists in January.
News media leaks in Pakistan now suggest that the JIT was not convinced by the evidence provided by our National Investigative Agency (NIA), and (more preposterously) that India itself may have stage-managed the attack to embarrass Pakistan. The leak shows where this whole exercise will lead. However, we can formally conclude this, once Pakistan fails to deliver on this investigation.
Unfortunately, we cannot know this for years, for it is always possible for Pakistan to go through the charade of arresting Maulana Masood Azhar of JeM, and then produce no evidence to keep him in jail – as had happened in the case of LeT commander Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi. If JeM is to be put in the dock, it is not our evidence, but theirs that is crucial. If Pakistan were really sincere, they should be looking for evidence in Pakistan, not here. For that is where the terrorists are based.
Going through the motions of trying to build trust is one thing, but falling for the same trap repeatedly is quite another. The chances are 99.9 percent that Narendra Modi and his National Security Advisor Ajit Doval are chasing a mirage with Pakistan.
Unfortunately, this semi-suicidal delusional gene seems to be part of us. It goes back to our history, and since independence, to pacifists like Gandhi and Jawaharlal Nehru. Nehru didn’t settle the Kashmir issue when he could have through a battlefield victory. Lal Bahadur Shastri, after the 1965 war, again let Pakistan get away with no loss of territory despite its starting the war. After the 1971 victory, Indira Gandhi (the Iron Lady, no less) returned 90,000 Pakistani prisoners of war for a piece of paper called the Shimla Agreement, which Pakistan had no intention of honouring.
Atal Behari Vajpayee made another hopeful bus trip to Lahore and got Kargil as a return gift. Manmohan Singh agreed to a bad deal at Sharm el-Shaikh, where he indirectly seemed to accept that India was meddling in Balochistan. He got unending terror attacks on Indian soil, each one bolder than the one before. After the 26/11 Mumbai terror attacks, we sent dossier after dossier to Pakistan; one of their diplomats was happy to dismiss all the evidence as “literature”.
And now it is Modi’s turn: he has gone out of his way to try and get Pakistan to tread the path away from terror by reaching out to Nawaz Sharif despite that country’s repeated perfidies. If the Pathankot JIT ends up with zilch - as it surely will - Modi will have political egg on his face.
But this is not just about Modi’s likely loss of face. It is about our fundamental inability to deal with a recalcitrant neighbor with the necessary long-term resolve. Isn’t it clear even now that Pakistan is not going to settle for any kind of peace, except on its terms? And its terms are the dismemberment of India; Kashmir is just a wayside halt to this goal. Pakistan is an ideological state, and ideological states usually prefer self-destruction to any kind of win-win situation. They want all or nothing. Just as a suicide-bomber prefers killing himself to achieve his ends, self-destruction is acceptable to Pakistan’s Deep State – the army and its terror cohorts.
It is thus India’s duty to help Pakistan achieve this goal of self-destruction. The alternative is our own destruction. We have no stake in a unified Pakistan. We should hasten its demise.
But our genetic willingness to compromise and avoid confrontation at all costs stands in the way. If, after this failure, Modi has time to introspect, he could read the Gita - which is particularly meaningful in this context.
On a close reading, Modi will find that Indians have Arjuna’s confused pacifism rather than Sri Krishna’s bold advice to fight evil. We want to avoid conflict even at the cost of humiliation, and this is why we repeatedly pursue dialogue with Pakistan after being kicked in the face. Before the Kurukshetra war, Arjuna, despite all the ignominies heaped by the Kauravas, develops cold feet and wants to run away from battle using the noble pretext of pacifism and non-violence. It took all of Sri Krishna’s persuasiveness to dissuade him. All too often, our cowardliness masquerades under the banner of non-violence.
Sri Krishna will tell Modi, if he were to seek his advice, that seeking peace at all costs with Pakistan is little more than cowardice. The fact that every previous PM has done the same thing does not absolve Modi of his own part in this folly. He has to abandon this path of trying to get Pakistan to play ball. Whenever it gets a chance, Pakistan will stick a knife into us, and history proves this. Ideological states do not give up despite defeats.
Here are some truisms for Modi to understand.
One, it may take two hands to clap, but it takes only one to slap. This means peace needs two parties, but war only one. Pakistan has never declared an end to hostilities against India, so why should we assume that it will be different this time? We are at war, and in wartime, there can be no lowering of the guard. We should be in covert attack mode.
Two, the right strategy against Pakistan is the one adopted by Shivaji against Afzal Khan – kill before being killed or being betrayed. We have to join the covert battle against Pakistan and not wait for its civil society to deliver peace. Pakistan’s civil society loves its army, and its army hates us. So peace is not possible till it is defeated. We have an eloquent phrase for it: “Munh mein Ram, bagal me Churi.”This is exactly what we should practice with Pakistan: talk peace and prosecute war. But it is Pakistan which is practising this with us.
Three, we should not fool ourselves with talk of India being the bigger country showing more generosity. This is b******t. If peace must progress, this time we must say “pehle aap”. We must not offer any olive branch except for holding talks for the sake of talks. We should aim to wear down Pakistan with talk and more talk, till it can bear it no longer. But no concessions should ever be given. This time, Pakistan has to prove its good faith, not us. Let them prove they are serious.
So where does this lead us? And what should Modi’s next step be?
First, downgrade the dialogue to lower official level, and never attempt summits. If Pakistan refuses, so be it. We must talk sweetly and talk peace in public, but bare our fangs in private. Every blow from them must invite two from our side.
Second, if we are not already working to support independence movements in Balochistan, Sindh and elsewhere, high time we did. We have no stake in a strong, united Pakistan. A Pakistan cleaved into smaller bits is less problematic for us.
Third, it is also time to develop a new strike capability against terror groups inside Pakistan, based on solid intelligence.
Fourth, we must also work to separate China from Pakistan geopolitically. While this won’t be easy, it should be possible to show China that it could lose lucrative Indian contracts or face non-tariff barriers for its exports to India. Sure, China can retaliate, but it has a massive trade surplus with us, and it will lose more than us. In fact we should directly link trade policy to reduction in Chinese diplomatic support to Pakistan, especially on terrorism.
Fifth, we have to develop tactical nuclear weapons to deter Chinese aggression, which could come anytime in the next 10 years as China may like to solve the Tibet question before India gets economically stronger. A strategic grab at Tawang in Arunachal, one of the oldest Tibetan monasteries, cannot be ruled out. So we should increase deterrence capabilities.
Sixth, we should not get too dependent on the US, except as a strategic ally against China. Against Pakistan, the US will never get out of its balancing act. So, we have to reckon with the reality that neither the US nor China will rein in a rogue state like Pakistan. If Hillary Clinton is the next US President, we will hear endless lectures on solving the core issue of Kashmir. Donald Trump is a better bet for us, and we should use the diaspora to vote for him.
Above all, the most important lesson to learn from the expected Pathankot fiasco is that Pakistan will never give up its enmity towards India. So we have to work hard - covertly and overtly - towards its dismemberment.
Chances are 99.9 percent that Narendra Modi and his National Security Advisor Ajit Doval are chasing a mirage with Pakistan.
Pakistan desires India’s dismemberment, and to achieve its ends, self-destruction is acceptable to Pakistan’s Deep State, and India should aid in its destruction.
The most important lesson to learn from the expected Pathankot fiasco is that Pakistan will never give up its enmity towards India.
The only purpose that the Modi government can ever achieve by its Pakistan policy is to show the world our good faith and the terror sponsor Pakistan’s absolute perfidy. Beyond this, we have nothing to gain from hugging Nawaz Sharif or allowing a bogus Joint Investigation Team (JIT) to visit the Pathankot airbase that was targeted by Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) terrorists in January.
News media leaks in Pakistan now suggest that the JIT was not convinced by the evidence provided by our National Investigative Agency (NIA), and (more preposterously) that India itself may have stage-managed the attack to embarrass Pakistan. The leak shows where this whole exercise will lead. However, we can formally conclude this, once Pakistan fails to deliver on this investigation.
Unfortunately, we cannot know this for years, for it is always possible for Pakistan to go through the charade of arresting Maulana Masood Azhar of JeM, and then produce no evidence to keep him in jail – as had happened in the case of LeT commander Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi. If JeM is to be put in the dock, it is not our evidence, but theirs that is crucial. If Pakistan were really sincere, they should be looking for evidence in Pakistan, not here. For that is where the terrorists are based.
Going through the motions of trying to build trust is one thing, but falling for the same trap repeatedly is quite another. The chances are 99.9 percent that Narendra Modi and his National Security Advisor Ajit Doval are chasing a mirage with Pakistan.
Unfortunately, this semi-suicidal delusional gene seems to be part of us. It goes back to our history, and since independence, to pacifists like Gandhi and Jawaharlal Nehru. Nehru didn’t settle the Kashmir issue when he could have through a battlefield victory. Lal Bahadur Shastri, after the 1965 war, again let Pakistan get away with no loss of territory despite its starting the war. After the 1971 victory, Indira Gandhi (the Iron Lady, no less) returned 90,000 Pakistani prisoners of war for a piece of paper called the Shimla Agreement, which Pakistan had no intention of honouring.
Atal Behari Vajpayee made another hopeful bus trip to Lahore and got Kargil as a return gift. Manmohan Singh agreed to a bad deal at Sharm el-Shaikh, where he indirectly seemed to accept that India was meddling in Balochistan. He got unending terror attacks on Indian soil, each one bolder than the one before. After the 26/11 Mumbai terror attacks, we sent dossier after dossier to Pakistan; one of their diplomats was happy to dismiss all the evidence as “literature”.
And now it is Modi’s turn: he has gone out of his way to try and get Pakistan to tread the path away from terror by reaching out to Nawaz Sharif despite that country’s repeated perfidies. If the Pathankot JIT ends up with zilch - as it surely will - Modi will have political egg on his face.
But this is not just about Modi’s likely loss of face. It is about our fundamental inability to deal with a recalcitrant neighbor with the necessary long-term resolve. Isn’t it clear even now that Pakistan is not going to settle for any kind of peace, except on its terms? And its terms are the dismemberment of India; Kashmir is just a wayside halt to this goal. Pakistan is an ideological state, and ideological states usually prefer self-destruction to any kind of win-win situation. They want all or nothing. Just as a suicide-bomber prefers killing himself to achieve his ends, self-destruction is acceptable to Pakistan’s Deep State – the army and its terror cohorts.
It is thus India’s duty to help Pakistan achieve this goal of self-destruction. The alternative is our own destruction. We have no stake in a unified Pakistan. We should hasten its demise.
But our genetic willingness to compromise and avoid confrontation at all costs stands in the way. If, after this failure, Modi has time to introspect, he could read the Gita - which is particularly meaningful in this context.
On a close reading, Modi will find that Indians have Arjuna’s confused pacifism rather than Sri Krishna’s bold advice to fight evil. We want to avoid conflict even at the cost of humiliation, and this is why we repeatedly pursue dialogue with Pakistan after being kicked in the face. Before the Kurukshetra war, Arjuna, despite all the ignominies heaped by the Kauravas, develops cold feet and wants to run away from battle using the noble pretext of pacifism and non-violence. It took all of Sri Krishna’s persuasiveness to dissuade him. All too often, our cowardliness masquerades under the banner of non-violence.
Sri Krishna will tell Modi, if he were to seek his advice, that seeking peace at all costs with Pakistan is little more than cowardice. The fact that every previous PM has done the same thing does not absolve Modi of his own part in this folly. He has to abandon this path of trying to get Pakistan to play ball. Whenever it gets a chance, Pakistan will stick a knife into us, and history proves this. Ideological states do not give up despite defeats.
Here are some truisms for Modi to understand.
One, it may take two hands to clap, but it takes only one to slap. This means peace needs two parties, but war only one. Pakistan has never declared an end to hostilities against India, so why should we assume that it will be different this time? We are at war, and in wartime, there can be no lowering of the guard. We should be in covert attack mode.
Two, the right strategy against Pakistan is the one adopted by Shivaji against Afzal Khan – kill before being killed or being betrayed. We have to join the covert battle against Pakistan and not wait for its civil society to deliver peace. Pakistan’s civil society loves its army, and its army hates us. So peace is not possible till it is defeated. We have an eloquent phrase for it: “Munh mein Ram, bagal me Churi.”This is exactly what we should practice with Pakistan: talk peace and prosecute war. But it is Pakistan which is practising this with us.
Three, we should not fool ourselves with talk of India being the bigger country showing more generosity. This is b******t. If peace must progress, this time we must say “pehle aap”. We must not offer any olive branch except for holding talks for the sake of talks. We should aim to wear down Pakistan with talk and more talk, till it can bear it no longer. But no concessions should ever be given. This time, Pakistan has to prove its good faith, not us. Let them prove they are serious.
So where does this lead us? And what should Modi’s next step be?
First, downgrade the dialogue to lower official level, and never attempt summits. If Pakistan refuses, so be it. We must talk sweetly and talk peace in public, but bare our fangs in private. Every blow from them must invite two from our side.
Second, if we are not already working to support independence movements in Balochistan, Sindh and elsewhere, high time we did. We have no stake in a strong, united Pakistan. A Pakistan cleaved into smaller bits is less problematic for us.
Third, it is also time to develop a new strike capability against terror groups inside Pakistan, based on solid intelligence.
Fourth, we must also work to separate China from Pakistan geopolitically. While this won’t be easy, it should be possible to show China that it could lose lucrative Indian contracts or face non-tariff barriers for its exports to India. Sure, China can retaliate, but it has a massive trade surplus with us, and it will lose more than us. In fact we should directly link trade policy to reduction in Chinese diplomatic support to Pakistan, especially on terrorism.
Fifth, we have to develop tactical nuclear weapons to deter Chinese aggression, which could come anytime in the next 10 years as China may like to solve the Tibet question before India gets economically stronger. A strategic grab at Tawang in Arunachal, one of the oldest Tibetan monasteries, cannot be ruled out. So we should increase deterrence capabilities.
Sixth, we should not get too dependent on the US, except as a strategic ally against China. Against Pakistan, the US will never get out of its balancing act. So, we have to reckon with the reality that neither the US nor China will rein in a rogue state like Pakistan. If Hillary Clinton is the next US President, we will hear endless lectures on solving the core issue of Kashmir. Donald Trump is a better bet for us, and we should use the diaspora to vote for him.
Above all, the most important lesson to learn from the expected Pathankot fiasco is that Pakistan will never give up its enmity towards India. So we have to work hard - covertly and overtly - towards its dismemberment.
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