Ashok Sekhar Ganguly
Much of our earth is covered by the water in oceans, rivers, wells, underground reserves, snow on mountains and moisture in the atmosphere. Water is the principal source of life and commerce. Discovery of new lands in search of wealth and adventure across oceans is a part of history. National rights over oceans, major rivers and mountain ice-melts are well-defined and governed by international law and covenants. Yet, the pursuit of sovereign rights and predatory moves by nations over water is a part of peoples' past, present and that of the future.
Uncertainty of access to food and water, two essentials for all living beings and plants, is growing. Global warming and climate change are now critical factors affecting these elements. The rate of population growth in poor and emerging nations is exacerbating the availability challenges.
In India, we have instances in our post-Independence phase of sharing the Indus waters with Pakistan on the basis of treaties. On the other hand, the India-Bangladesh discussions on sharing the waters of Teesta river are yet to be resolved. Within India, a 50-year-old master plan for interconnecting rivers in order to facilitate riverine transport for commerce and conserving more water during seasonal monsoon rains has, sadly, remained on paper to this day. Constructing dams on some of the perennial as well as seasonal rivers, in turn, has delivered some benefits at the cost of serious environmental problems and troubles for downstream areas. Differences over riparian rights among the states of India are the reason for protracted disputes and legal battles that have, in some instances, led to violence and social unrest.
When it comes to flouting international riparian laws and coastal rights, China is the gorilla in the room. The two major rivers of Asia - the Mekong and the Brahmaputra - are primarily sourced from the Tibetan ice-melt and monsoon rains. The disputes between countries along the Mekong - Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam with China - are critical for livelihood matters in these nations. But they remain unresolved owing to China's stubbornness and its habit of flouting established laws. The problems are a combination of China's plans to build damns in the upstream regions of the Mekong by progressive diversion of the Tibetan ice-melt in order to promote power generation and the building of new waterways to direct water flows toward some of the most arid regions of the Chinese mainland.
Not very long ago, the government of India stated in Parliament that China was not planning to divert the water source of the Tibetan ice-melt that feeds the Brahmaputra. Sadly, satellite images and other evidence indicate the contrary. India must urgently seek to address this major violation by China at appropriate international fora before the situation becomes irreversible.
China's claim of sovereign rights over the South China Sea is another source of a serious international dispute and is already a significant regional and global security threat. This is obviously a part of China's larger aim to challenge the hegemony of the United States of America, and this threatens its close allies in the region. China's rapid spread and maritime presence in global waterways under the ruse of protecting commercial shipping from piracy is also part of its long-term strategy. Its brazen pursuit of power is also reflected in its plans to build the new 'Silk Route' or the 'Beltway' project via Pakistan and regions of Central Asia on to Europe and beyond. Speculations are that all this is the result of China's need to balance its internal as well as external policies in order to sustain its domestic leadership and economic ambitions.
India has, at least in public, remained mute to the threats posed by China to the Brahmaputra even in the face of potential of long-term calamitous consequences. This attitude is in stark contrast to visible agitations against China by countries in Southeast Asia and Japan. The affected countries have raised a number of serious disputes in the international fora regarding threats to their national security and challenges to their defence treaties with the US.
Since President Barack Obama assumed office in 2009, the stated policy of the US about progressively replacing America's defence personnel by technology hardware in warfare and its defence strategy is that it is a policy in transition. Modernization of defence capabilities and deployment, the latter in order to phase out the traditional 'feet on the ground' policy, is being pursued by both the US and China. However, at present it is not clear how the US and its allies plan to deal with China's continuously creeping geographical expansion across the world under various guises.
China is actively reclaiming and rebuilding new islands and outcrops of land in the South China Sea, and, at the same time, equipping these reclaimed spaces with aircraft runway facilities, ground armour and armed missile installations quite openly. It has declared that the airspace over the South China Sea is part of its rightful sovereign control. Till now American challenges to these intrusions in the 'new' Chinese territories and airspace have been very tentative. In fact, China has defended its intrusions through verbal warnings and threats of taking all steps that are necessary to 'protect' its 'rightful territories and air space'.
China's march towards its goal of global economic and military hegemony has been quite clear for a while. Till now it has not met any face-to-face challenges from either countries in its neighbourhood or from the US and its allies. While India has long countered hostility and aggression from China along its border, some of the Southeast Asian countries have approached the International Court for Justice and the United Nations regarding the danger China poses. However, so far, China has remained unhindered in its progress towards its goals and objectives.
India's response to the diversion of the Tibetan water flow into the Brahmaputra has remained extremely muted as has its response to China's creeping advances across its frontier boundaries. Bilateral dialogue on these issues remains fuzzy.
The water wars of the 21st century have commenced. China has provoked these wars unilaterally, primarily as a challenge to America and a warning to nations in its Pacific Ocean neighbourhood. By these actions, China is clearly signalling that the time to choose a new ally has come for countries in its neighbourhood. China's absolute political hold over its own people is gradually changing and there now appears to be a delicate balance between China's internal economic progress and its rise as a global power to counter threats to its future.
A fairly widely acknowledged argument is that conventional wars have become redundant in a multi-polar, nuclear-weapon armed world. However, the ongoing brutal battles in the Middle East are demonstrating that even non-nuclear modern weaponry and fanatic religious bigotry can be as destructive for nations and civilizations. The simultaneous water wars are likely to spread and they have the potential to become a new weapon of mass destruction.
China's aggression across land and water must be more collectively and effectively resisted by not only those nations that are directly affected, but also by the rest of the civilized world before it is too late. While the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham remains the real and present danger, China looms visibly as an even bigger menace to the world. The Obama defence doctrine and the refugee crisis in the European nations have, sadly, diverted the world's attention from the long-term menace of China. Land and water conflicts are becoming the principal hurdles to an emerging civilized world order.
This piece had appeared in the online Edition of The Telegraph on 24.03.16
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