Carter’s India Visit: The China Factor

Rahul Bhonsle

Apr 14, 2016 

US Defence Secretary Dr. Ashton Carter’s indefatigable energy brought him to India a second time in as many years and onboard an aircraft carrier on the Western Fleet. He is the only foreign leader to have visited both the fleets – Eastern and Western of the Indian Navy. Thus, there were many expectations from the visit to India from 10 to 13 April (2016) the least of which was signing the Logistics Support Agreement (LSA).

This would have been the topping on the icing for a Defence Secretary, who has given a lot of his personal time for the betterment of India-US defence relations. But that was not to be. Amongst other factors, the timing of the signing of an LSA in whatever form was just not right with India’s Defence Minister’s visit to China a week ahead and Carter’s trip to the Philippines to announce the presence of US troops at the Clarks Base in the country.

Clubbing India and Philippines and leaving out a prescheduled visit to China created challenges.

Under the circumstances expecting India to sign even a mild LSA was highly unrealistic, perhaps the intent was not to ink one but only to prepare grounds for the same, we will never know.

Ironically one of the factors for proximate India-US defence connections is supposed to be China; the Dragon has now become an Elephant (sic) in the Room.

But coming to the Carter visit first and the LSA. The joint statement issued by the Ministry of Defence in New Delhi stated that both sides decided, “to conclude a Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA), and to continue working toward other facilitating agreements to enhance military cooperation and technology transfer”.

The so-called LEMOA is expected to allow the United States and India to entrée each other’s logistics facilities without establishing the right to automatic access. So this will be something like a case to case basis plus. Mainly the financials could be covered through the LEMOA with an escrow account taking care of visits by US Navy ships to India.

As to how many Indian ships will be visiting the US bases remains to be seen? Indian Navy mainly operates one or two battleships on port visits outside the primary zone of the Indian Ocean littoral and may not require assistance from the US at least in the near to midterm.

There were, however, many positives during the Carter visit.

Defence Minister Parrikar and Secretary Carter outlined some of the priorities in Indo-US defence relations to include, “expanding collaboration under the Defence Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI); Make in India efforts of Government of India; new opportunities to deepen cooperation in maritime security and Maritime Domain Awareness; military-to-military relations; the knowledge partnership in the field of defence; and regional and international security matters of mutual interest”.

The other take away were in terms of maritime security – a “white shipping” technical arrangement to improve data sharing on commercial shipping traffic, Navy-to-Navy discussions on submarine safety and anti-submarine warfare and a bilateral Maritime Security Dialogue, co-chaired by officials at the Joint Secretary/Assistant Secretary-level of the Indian Ministries of Defence and External Affairs and the U.S. Departments of Defense and State have been agreed upon.

The joint statement also underlined “ensuring freedom of navigation and over flight throughout the region, including in the South China Sea.” This comes as China and the US are in a spat over the declaration of air defence identification zone over the South China Sea by Beijing. Will India also force through this ADIZ following the US? An unlikely scenario to say the least.

The progress on Defence Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI) was reviewed, and projects such as the jet technology and aircraft carrier which are being dwelt on by joint groups headed by senior military officers at the three-star level were discussed. These have long gestation periods.

A welcome development is, “finalisation of four government-to-government project agreements in the area of science and technology cooperation: Atmospheric Sciences for High Energy Lasers, Cognitive Tools for Target Detection, Small Intelligent Unmanned Aerial Systems, and Blast and Blunt Traumatic Brain Injury”. Thus, the DTTI portion of Defence Secretary Carter’s visit has gone off reasonably deliverables in any case are not likely to be visible very soon.

Why the LEMOA has not been signed when much was being made out of it, is not clear, possibly more homework is necessary by both sides. The other reason could be timing. Both sides may want to sign the agreement during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the United States expected in June.

Alternately there could be the China factor, with Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar due to visit China on 18 April, his first visit to Beijing it would have been awkward to troop to Beijing after signing the LEMOA with the United States.

Moreover there is an ongoing spat of sorts between China and the United States on cancellation of the visit of Defence Secretary Carter to Beijing which was scheduled in this tour touching India and Philippines. While the plan was confirmed in November 2015, Carter reportedly postponed the same a few weeks back due to time constraints.

China’s Ministry of Defence tried to play down the postponement and quoting the Information Affairs Bureau of the Ministry of National Defense (MND) of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) on April 11, 2016 China Military online stated, “U.S. Defense Secretary Carter’s visit to China has been included in the communication plan between the militaries of China and the United States in 2016”. Clarification was issued that efforts are on to reschedule the visit following the cancellation.

However, other observers were not that generous. Commenting on the cancellation Zhang Junshe, a senior researcher at the PLA Naval Military Studies Research Institute, said that annulment of a planned visit is uncommon. "If the two sides have agreed on the visit earlier, it should not be changed unless there are grave disputes on major issues," he said, adding that the cancellation should not be used to exert pressure on China.

There were other contentious issues as well. Chinese Defense Ministry also said that “China firmly opposes any activities that could harm the country's strategic security interests.” It said, “the U.S. and the Republic of Korea should act prudently by not deploying the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense missile-defense system”. The statement was in response to Carter, who has said in an interaction in a think tank earlier that the proposed placement of the THAAD system in South Korea is "going to happen" despite China's opposition as per China Military online.

Global Times regarded as a pro-nationalist voice of the Chinese government in an Op-Ed published on April 11, 2016 was acerbic and stated, “If Carter canceled his China trip to express his dissatisfaction against China's action in the South China Sea, it only reflects that the US military is becoming less confident, and more sensitive and emotional. The US military is already quite advanced and strong. It seems that the US will never feel at ease until it has absolute military predominance over China. This explains that Washington's China strategy lacks justification. The US is using the South China Sea disputes as an excuse to intervene in the region. Washington's posture in the region is much more aggressive than the South China Sea policy it claims”.

Having seen off Dr Carter, Indian Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar’s newly acquired skills in defence diplomacy are likely to be on test as he visits Beijing next week.

The dilemma for the Indian foreign policy and defence establishment remains that of dissuasion of an increasingly aggressive regime in Beijing led by President Xi Jinping. The road map for modernisation of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is likely to place the Indian armed forces modernising at the pace of a Tortoise at a major disadvantage by 2020. Thus cosying up if not bandwagoning with the United States is inevitable.

At the same time too much proximity will only add to ongoing differences with China on the boundary issue amongst others apart from the One Road One Belt initiative, China’s increasing profile in the Indian Ocean Region, the presence of the PLA in Gilgit-Baltistan and so on. Masood Azhar remains a tactical ploy but has also assumed traction.

The United States no doubt is a very valuable partner but how much hand holding it will do in an India-China standoff is yet to be tested.

So Mr Parrikar will be able to gauge the mood and also assuage any concerns that the Chinese may have while ensuring that Indias’ concerns also get the Chinese ear.

On return, he would hopefully shake up the Indian acquisition establishment to get its act together and overcome hollowness in defence capability through Make in India or otherwise as time may be running out.