NSA Doval has struck gold

http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2016/03/07/nsa-doval-has-struck-gold/

The government’s Pakistan policy is highly accident prone, and, therefore, let me strike when the iron is still hot. But what needs to sink in is that slowly, steadily, a meaningful engagement between Delhi and Islamabad seems to be getting under way.
Of course, it faces the risk of sniper fire not only from right-wing nationalists (who are in unholy alliance on this turf with the political opposition), but also from within our establishment. The sharp remark by Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar and the Pakistani high commissioner Abdul Basit’s prompt clarification last week testify to how the bureaucracy is indulging in vanities without knowing what is happening. Basit obviously knew much more than he was willing to admit. (here andhere).

 
These are early days, but the sharing of intelligence by Pakistan’s National Security Advisor Lt. Gen. Naseer Janjua with our NSA Ajit Doval regarding the strong likelihood of a major terrorist strike in India suggests that a critical mass is possibly developing in their mutual engagement. If so, it could presage a breakthrough that has only few precedents in the tortuous India-Pakistan discourse. (here).
Doval’s strength is that he is Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s trusted aide on foreign and security policy front, while Pakistan’s interest would lie in developing a matrix of mutual understanding with him precisely for that reason.

 
It could be that the Pakistani side is testing the waters — how far Doval is willing to take a walk into the night with his counterpart. On the other hand, paradoxically, this is an instance where we can only sincerely hope that Lt. Gen. Janjua raised a false alarm.
Nonetheless, it is significant that Lt. Gen. Janjua appears to have named the Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e Muhammed. A strong case can now be built to mount a crack down on these terrorist groups. Is the crunch time coming for the jihadi leadership?
Equally, we need to appreciate this stunning development against the backdrop of a much bigger canvas, which is strongly suggestive of a clean break in Pakistani policies, both internal and external – execution of Mumtaz Qadri, which is undoubtedly a brave and audacious decision by the civilian and political leadership of Pakistan (here), as well as the signs of a profound shift in the Pakistani strategy towards Afghanistan (see my article in Asia Times entitled Pakistan shifts its Afghan strategy: To what end?)

 
Unfortunately, the stereotyped mindset prevalent among the Indian pundits blocks new thinking. Besides, there is also the pro-American lobby in India, which will inevitably try to ascribe the credit for all that is happening to the US ‘pressure’ working on Pakistan. But that is sheer baloney, because the US is barely able to look after its own self-interests in the AfPak.
Suffice it to say, what we are seeing here is no effect of some American magic formula. These are hard-headed Pakistan-led, Pakistan-owned decisions and moves. And a hardcore realist like Doval surely would be willing to see it that way. Of course, the dictum should nonetheless be ‘Trust but verify’ — always, always, always.

 
Which brings us to the efficacy of the entire approach PM Modi has wisely taken by putting Doval in sole charge and taking the India-Pakistan engagement off the radar of public view and perceptions. Clearly, this sequestered approach must be continued and taken to its logical conclusion.
Let the foreign-policy bureaucracy be brought in laterally to dabble in ‘dialogue’ in due course, if need be. There is no hurry on that score.
One can only hope that Modi resorts to the same thoughtful, practical approach to reset the Sino-Indian ties. Too many cooks spoil the broth – even if they claim to be professional cooks with previous experience in making Peking Duck.