February 26, 2016
The strength of Israel's position in the Middle Easthas been the subject of a recent spate of articles. That strength is clear, for the moment. The question, however, is how durable it is. The current situation in Israel's vicinity indeed makes it appear that Israel has an enormous advantage, but a more careful reading of the situation shows its position to be more brittle than meets the eye.
The argument of Israel's strong strategic position is persuasive. The joint Israeli-Egyptian hammerlock on Gaza has constrained operations by Hamas and weakened its authority to some extent. This has not markedly strengthened the Palestinian National Authority, which has its own problems holding together a fractious Palestinian community on the West Bank. The recent wave of knife attacks against Israelis does not threaten Israel's strategic position in any way.
Egypt's peace treaty with Israel has proved to be among the most durable features of the region, even surviving the 2012-2013 government of Mohammed Morsi, led by the country's largest Islamist movement, the Muslim Brotherhood. The relationship goes beyond neutrality to a degree of collaboration against the major powers in the region. Jordan remains under Israel's strategic umbrella, an ally. Syria, which had been a major adversary of Israel, is so shattered by the civil war that, regardless of what emerges from the chaos, it will take at least a generation to recover. In Lebanon, Hezbollah has been severely weakened by its involvement in Syria, and is in no position to reopen conflict with Israel.
The rise of the Islamic State as a defined territorial entity is something that Israel can cope with should the need arise, but in destabilizing Syria and Iraq it draws off a great deal of Arab power that might be used against Israel. The Russian intervention in Syria has benefited Israel by blocking IS from further expansion and securing a crippled Assad regime, the best outcome for Israel. It also has forced Turkey, in confrontation with Russia, to re-evaluate its tense relationship with Israel. In addition, the rise of IS has alarmed the states on the Arabian Peninsula, particularly Saudi Arabia, and led to increased cooperation with Israel.
Finally, Israel maintains its massive nuclear advantage over Iran, even while its own program appears to be on hold. While Israel has spoken of the threat Iranian forces in Syria can pose, this is hard to take seriously. The distance from Iran to Syria is about a thousand miles along vulnerable roads and unstable regions. Iran does not have the power to deploy a force significant enough to confront Israel at that distance. The Iranian threat remains theoretical.
Finally, Israel's dependence on the United States has declined. The improvement in its strategic condition allows it less dependence on the United States and more room for maneuver should it need it. Israel's greatest strategic weakness has been that its national security needs outstripped its capacity in many areas, from production to manpower. It therefore needed the patronage of a major power, creating the most serious vulnerability Israel had - if its interest diverged from the United States (its main patron since after 1967) it would be caught in a dangerous position. The decline of regional threats frees Israel to at least a limited extent from U.S. controls and that has locked in its strategic advantage. For now.
The problem with this assessment is that it assumes that a transitory situation in the Arab world is permanent. It is not. The chaos we are now seeing is the collapse of states created by France and Britain, and inevitably, after a terrific fight, a new system of states and relationships will emerge. The model here is Lebanon, whose government essentially collapsed and was replaced by a series of factions battling for security and supremacy. This dynamic has lasted for generations, starting in the 1970s. In due course, the battling - which drew in Israel, the United States, the Soviet Union and Iran in various ways - finally resulted in a new constitution that created a new and complex stability in Lebanon. No conflict is permanent, and after the conflict ends, what emerges is not only new, but frequently has the strength of the battle-forged.
It is possible that IS or a successor entity will over time emerge as a major power, which would threaten Israel. But in my mind, this is not the major threat. The power that will ultimately emerge is Turkey. Whatever the current complex calculations of the Turkish government, it cannot permanently accept ongoing chaos along its southern border. The Russians are incapable of pacifying the region, and are ultimately a threat to Turkish security, since Russian involvement in the region requires supply lines through the Bosporus. The United States is not going to allow a recurrence of Iraq, where it is compelled to undertake unlimited occupation warfare with limited forces against a determined enemy.
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