March 27, 2016
www.fortunascorner.com
Homicide Bomber In Pakistan Kills 65 And Injures 300; Islamic Extremism ‘Is Mushrooming In The World’s Only Nuclear-Armed Muslim Country’ — What Can The U.S. Do If Pakistan Loses Control Of Its Nuclear Weapons Arsenal?
Various news outlets and websites are reporting this evening that a homicide bomber targeting Christians celebrating the Easter holiday — killed mostly women and children at a Pakistan play park in the city of Lahore. Sixty five deaths have been confirmed; but, the death toll is expected to climb considerably higher, as many of the 300 wounded are in critical condition. A Pakistan Taliban faction named Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, claimed responsibility for the bombing and in a statement claimed it had specifically targeted Christians. Reuters News Service is reporting that “the explosion occurred in the parking area of Gulshan-e-Iqbal Park close to children’s swings.” Reuters adds that “the park is a popular site for members of Lahore’s Christian community, many of whom had gone there to celebrate the Easter weekend holiday.”
“The target was Christians,” a spokesman for the Jamaat-ul-Ahrar faction, Ehsanullah Ehsan, said, “We want to send this message to Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif that we have entered Lahore. He can do what he wants; but, he won;t be able to stop us. Our suicide [homicide] bombers will continue these attacks.”
This despicable act must be a forcing function for Prime Minister Sharif’s government to launch a swift and harsh anti-Taliban campaign; but, the nuclear-armed nation of some 190 million is infested in the military, intelligence, and other government and security entities with Taliban and Islamic State sympathizers.
Islamic Extremism ‘Is Mushrooming In The World’s Only Nuclear-Armed Muslim Country
Mr. Farahnaz Ispahani and Ms. Nina Shea warned on the October 16, 2014 Hudson Institute’s website that “Pakistan is sliding toward extremism, as the appeal of Islamist extremism is mushrooming within Pakistani society….reminding us that we risk Talibanization — not simply of a small minority, or ordinary citizens; but, large swaths of the populace of the world’s second largest — and only nuclear-armed, Muslim country.”
“State laws [within Pakistan] and practices relating to Islamic blasphemy, in particular, are increasingly suppressing moderate voices, while allowing extremists to dominate cultural discourse and learning. As a result,” Mr. Ispahani and Ms. Shea wrote, “extremism is making ideological inroads into wider, and wider segments of the population.”
What Can The U.S. Do If Pakistan Loses Control Over Nuclear Weapons?
So, we have the Islamic State actively seeking a weapon of mass destruction (WMD), and, extremist jihadism flourishing in a Muslim country that also has a substantial quantity of nuclear weapons — at least 100, according to open press reporting. Elaine Grossman wrote in the May 17, 2013 Global Security Newswire that “the U.S, Defense Department for years has reportedly war-gamed the possibility of forcibly securing Pakistani, or North Korean nuclear warheads — in the event of a serious crisis.”
Rolf Mowatt-Larsen wrote at the time — on the Arms Control Association’s website, that “three worrisome trends are exerting mounting pressure on the Pakistani military’s ability to secure its nuclear assets and prevent a nuclear catastrophe. First,” he wrote, “growing extremism in Pakistan increases the odds of insiders in Pakistan’s nuclear establishment — connecting with outsiders — to access nuclear weapons, materials, or facilities. No where in the world is this threat greater than in Pakistan,” he warns. “Second,” he says, “the rapid expansion of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program will introduce new vulnerabilities into the security system. Finally,” he notes, “growing instability within the country could lead to unanticipated challenges to nuclear command and control procedures, resulting in a “loose nuke” scenario, a takeover facility by outsiders, or, in the worst case, a coup leading to Taliban control over the nuclear arsenal.”
But, securing Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal in the midst of a chaotic situation is easier said than done. “Outside intervention in these circumstances is a long shot at best — in terms of entering a nation in crisis and attempting to locate and secure any so-called “loose nukes,” held by rouge actors,” according to Brian Jenkins, a Senior Adviser at The RAND Corporation. In a briefing — in a briefing at the Stimson Center n May of 2013, Mr. Jenkins warned, “One should not have any degree of optimism that we can do this.” “Things [can] get [really] complicated [really fast],” suggesting that “domestic, or external armies or insurgents [Taliban] might [could] pose serious obstacles. The notion that we’re going to be operating in a benign environment is….nonsense [wishful thinking].” “Is it realistic to think we can — when/where a [nuclear] weapon goes missing, or there’s a situation like that — can we actually quarantine, effectively quarantine an entire nation? In terms of intelligence, can we rapidly mobilize a swarm of sensors and other things to try and quickly locate and track [missing nuclear material] items?,” he asked.
“In the end, a lack of effective options might suggest Washington,or other world powers would be limited to the support they could provide to a nation — grappling with dangerous weapons or materials on the loose,” he warned. “What, if anything can we do?,” Mr. Jenkins asked — acknowledging he lacked the technical background to comment in detail . “If the answer is ‘not a lot,’ then that’s a conclusion; and, let’s not have illusions about what we can do.”
Well that was three years ago. I sure hope we have gotten much better in our training and war gaming this kind of dangerous and potentially existential scenario. The Nuclear Summit to be held in Washington D.C. this week couldn’t come at a better and more dangerous time. Let’s hope we’re able to make some progress in addressing a nightmare nuclear scenario that could come to fruition in Pakistan.
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