Russia in Review

February 12, 2016

http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/26288/russia_in_review.html

Belfer Center Programs or Projects: US-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism

ABSTRACT

Russia in Review: a digest of useful news from U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism for February 5-12, 2016

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda.

Nuclear security: 

In the FY2017 budget request, submitted to the U.S. Congress, the Obama administration proposes to terminate construction of the Mixed Oxide Fuel Fabrication Facility near Aiken in South Caroline. The plant is being built to comply with an agreement with Russia in 2000, when both countries said they would eliminate 34 metric tons of weapons-grade plutonium from their nuclear arsenals. (New York Times, 02.09.16, IPFM Blog, 02.10.16). 

Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev and U.S. president Barack Obama can possibly meet on the margins of the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, US Ambassador to Kazakhstan George Krol has said. (Interfax. 02.11.16). 

Iran’s nuclear program and related issues: 

Russian companies are broadly gearing up to get back into Iran. Sukhoi wants to sell its Superjet airliners. AvtoVAZ has started talks to open an assembly plant for Lada cars in Iran. Gazprom and Lukoil are weighing investments in a liquefied natural gas project on the Persian Gulf, and an oil field. The Eurasia Drilling Company and Tatneft both have good prospects. Russia’s Uralvagonzavod is willing to allow Iran to license-build the T-90S main battle tank domestically (New York Times, 02.09.16, National Interest, 02.09.16). 

An agreement between Russia and Iran to simplify procedures for issuing travel visas went into effect on February 6. (RFE/RL, 02.06.16). 

Military issues, including NATO-Russia relations: 

The defense ministers from all 28 NATO countries approved a plan on Wednesday to enhance the alliance's military presence in Central and Eastern Europe, part of its expanding efforts to deter Russian aggression, according to NATO's secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg. The forces will rotate through the countries to conduct exercises, and NATO will also enlarge its infrastructure in the region so it can quickly respond to threats, Mr. Stoltenberg said. NATO announced more naval patrols in the Baltic Sea. The size of the land and maritime forces to take part in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization mission won't be decided until closer to the alliance summit in July. Douglas Lute, the U.S. ambassador to NATO, said that that actual force levels will probably be hammered out only after consultations with NATO's supreme commander in Europe. One NATO official said one proposal under consideration calls for creation of a brigade-size force: roughly 3,000 troops. But the U.S. has said it would contribute an additional 3,000 soldiers to European defense next year. These U.S. forces are separate from those announced by NATO, but will provide a significant boost to allied forces distributed throughout Europe. According to a U.S. senior defense official, the 3,000 troops will be distributed throughout the Baltic states, as well as Bulgaria, Germany and the Netherlands. As part of its budget proposal for the 2017 fiscal year, the U.S. administration asked for $3.4 billion -- compared with $789 million in the current budget -- for ''more pre-positioned war-fighting gear'' in the European countries, and more training and exercises. Among the countries that NATO and the United States are looking to protect are Hungary, Romania, Ukraine and the Baltic States, according to the Obama administration officials. (Wall Street Journal, 02.11.16, Washington Post, 02.10.16, New York Times, Financial Times, 02.11.16, Washington Post, 02.11.16). 

NATO's plan to beef up its military presence near Russia's borders endangers security and stability in Europe, Russian Foreign Ministry representative Maria Zakharova said in a news conference Wednesday. "We do not understand the reason for such an action. We assume that NATO's [action] threatens Russia and also endangers security and stability in Europe," Zakharova said. Russia's envoy to NATO is also warning that Moscow will respond to a buildup of the alliance's forces near Russian borders. Aleksandr Grushko insisted that "Russia won't compromise its security interests," but wouldn't say what specific steps the Kremlin will take. (RFE/RL, 02.09.16, Moscow Times, 02.10.16). 

The Obama administration is pushing ahead with an expensive plan to modernize the country’s nuclear arsenal. The Pentagon budget for 2017 includes funding for a controversial new air-launched cruise missile that can carry nuclear weapons and for a new nuclear bomb, as well as new submarines and long-range bombers. While official statements so far have mainly justified the massive modernization of U.S. nuclear forces as simply extending the service-life of existing capabilities, the Pentagon now explicitly paints the nuclear modernization as a direct response to Russia. “The most significant shift in the future security environment—and that is a return to an era of great power competition,” Deputy Defense Secretary Bob Work said during a press conference at the Pentagon on February 9. (National Interest, 02.11.16, Federation of American Scientists, 02.11.16, Financial Times, 02.11.16). 

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization is developing a new strategy to speed decision-making and improve its response to the kind of unconventional warfare the West says Russia has used in Crimea and eastern Ukraine. A new hybrid warfare playbook would attempt to lay out the kind of assistance the alliance would provide should a member state come under outside pressure from Russia or another country. (Wall Street Journal, 02.08.16). 

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov may hold a bilateral meeting with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on the sidelines of the security conference in Munich. Stoltenberg announced Tuesday that the alliance is ready for a renewal of “constructive talks” with Russia. “We do not seek confrontation with Russia and we want to prevent the possibility of a new Cold War," Stoltenberg said. (Moscow Times, 02.09.16, Interfax, 02.08.16). 

Thanks to increased Russian air and sea activity in the North Atlantic, the U.S. Navy is taking a new look at Naval Air Station Keflavík in Iceland. As part of this week’s 2017 budget rollout, the Navy requested $19 million to reopen at least part of the air station to start landing P-8A Poseidon spy planes there. (Foreign Policy, 02.11.16). 

Missile defense: 

North Korea's latest rocket launch has helped South Korea overcome some of its hesitation about hosting the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system, a sophisticated American anti-missile system on its soil. Moscow has warned that the deployment of this sophisticated U.S. missile-defense system to South Korea could “provoke an arms race” in the region and “complicate the resolution of the nuclear problem” on the Korean Peninsula. (RFE/RL, 02.10.16, Washington Post, 02.08.16). 

Nuclear arms control: 

Moscow sees no progress in its dialogue with Washington on the INF treaty, Russian Foreign Ministry Nonproliferation and Arms Reduction Department Director Mikhail Ulyanov said. Moscow is ready for a dialogue with Washington on the elimination of the existing disagreements, and the U.S. should take Russia's concerns more seriously, he said. (Interfax, 02.10.16). 

White House national security adviser Susan Rice has called on Russia to resume negotiations to further reduce nuclear arsenals. Rice made the call February 5, on the fifth anniversary of the New START. But Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said that Washington's ongoing efforts at creating missile defense systems and developing the Prompt Global Strike (PGS) precision conventional weapon program has a continued destabilizing effect on nuclear disarmament talks. (RFE/RL, 02.05.16, Sputnik, 02.06.16). 

A new data processing network being prepared by Russia is intended to collate information on adherence to international arms agreements by countries around the world, including nuclear treaties between Russia and the U.S. According to the military's plan, the system will become a sort of "world supervisor." Its aims are to collect and process information from technical control resources based at sea and in space, as well as from inspection groups that monitor the territories of countries participating in corresponding agreements, and bring the information "to all the interested Russian ministries." (RBTH, 02.09.16). 

Counter-terrorism: 

Russia's Federal Security Service announced the arrest of seven members of the Islamic State in the Urals city of Yekaterinburg, who were reportedly preparing "high-profile terrorist attacks" in Moscow, St. Petersburg and the Sverdlovsk region with the use of homemade explosives. The leader of the group was an armed insurgent who arrived in Russia from Turkey, according to an official statement. (Moscow Times, 02.08.16). 

At the start of 2015, 150 Russian Chechens were fighting in the Middle East. Their total numbers, including those that came from Europe, hovered between 1,500 and 2,000 people. By the end of 2014, 85 to 100 fighters from Kabardino-Balkaria fought for ISIS in Syria. As for Dagestan, the republic’s President Ramazan Abdulatipov stated that there are 643 Dagestani jihadists in the Middle East. Incidentally, the South Caucasus also supplies new recruits to ISIS—about 500 Azerbaijani and 400 Georgian militants. (Carnegie, 02.12.16). 

An unidentified source in the Chechen government has claimed that there are no members of law enforcement agencies among Chechnya's fighters in Syria. The Chechens fighting in Syria consist of independent groups of young people who oppose the Islamic State, the source told the news agency. (Moscow Times, 02.09.16).

 

U.S. Congressman Dana Rohrabacher wrote: “Syria is as close to the Russian border as New York is to Chicago, and Russia will not countenance a jihadist regime in Damascus. It is only too mindful that fifteen thousand of the Islamic fighters in Syria are Chechens, who, once done there, will return to Russia for the next round of terrorist brutality.” (National Interest, 02.11.16). 

Cyber security: 

U.S. national intelligence director James Clapper said that Russia was the most sophisticated cyber actor, China one of the most pervasive, and Iran and North Korea among the boldest. Clapper said: “Russian cyber operations are likely to target US interests to support several strategic objectives: intelligence gathering to support Russian decision-making in the Ukraine and Syrian crises, influence operations to support military and political objectives, and continuing preparation of the cyber environment for future contingencies.”(DNI.gov, 02.09.16, New York Times, 02.11.16). 

U.S. President Barack Obama wrote: “Hackers in China and Russia are going after U.S. defense contractors.” (Wall Street Journal, 02.09.16). 

Security researchers have accused Russian developer of mobile phone apps Academ Media of defrauding companies out of millions of dollars via MoPub, the online advertising marketplace owned by Twitter. (Financial Times, 02.07.16). 

Hackers used malware to penetrate the defenses of a Russian regional bank and move the ruble-dollar rate more than 15 percent in minutes, according to a Moscow-based cyber-security firm hired to investigate the attack. (Bloomberg, 02.08.16). 

Vladimir Putin’s new Internet czar German Klimenko said forcing Google and Apple to pay more taxes and banning Microsoft Windows from government computers are necessary measures best explained in terms of barnyard economics and marital infidelity. “We are breeding the cow and they are milking it,” Klimenko said. (Bloomberg, 02.08.16). 

Energy exports from CIS: 

The head of Russia's state oil company for the first time suggested oil producers should cut output to prop up plummeting oil prices. Rosneft chief executive Igor Sechin, a close ally of President Vladimir Putin, told a conference in London on February 10 that major producers should cut production by 1 million barrels a day to reduce oversupply of about 1.5 million barrels a day. (RFE/RL, 02.11.16). 

Bilateral economic ties:

No significant developments. 

Other bilateral issues: 

Vladimir “Putin is the first leader since Stalin to expand Russia's territory,'' U.S. National Intelligence Director James Clapper told a Senate committee. “We assess that the leading state intelligence threats to US interests will continue to be Russia and China, based on their capabilities, intent, and broad operational scope,” he said. (New York Times, 02.11.16, DNI.gov, 02.09.16). 

The United States Agency for International Development will spend nearly $1 billion in energy, economic, defense and civil society programs to counter Russian actions in Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova and Central Asia, a US Department of State official said on Tuesday. (Sputnik, 02.09.16). 

II. Russia news. 

Domestic politics, economy and energy: 

The Russian budget could face an additional shortfall of up to 2.5 trillion rubles ($31.7 billion) this year if crude prices stay at around $30 per barrel, putting at risk the target of keeping the deficit at 3 percent of gross domestic product. Russia's Central Bank denied a report that it might welcome a fall in the ruble's value to help the government close a gaping budget deficit. Russia’s government was to present President Vladimir Putin Wednesday with a $10.5 billion plan to revive the shrinking economy. (Bloomberg, 02.09.16, RFE/RL, 02.12.16,(Reuters, 02.10.16). 

The Russian government would have to apply for financing from the Reserve Fund if the oil prices stabilize around $30 per barrel, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said. (Interfax, 02.06.16). 

While Russia will still be in recession in 2016, the pace of the contraction in its gross domestic product will slow to 0.5 percent from 3.7 percent, according to the Bank of America Corp. That will be less of a drag on overall growth in developing nations, which he sees expanding 4.2 percent, after 4 percent growth in 2015. (Bloomberg, 02.07.16). 

The spending of Russians exceeded their income in 2015 for the first time in 18 years, the Kommersant newspaper reported Wednesday, citing the Center of Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting. (Moscow Times, 02.10.16). 

The number of suicides in Russian totaled 24,982 last year — the lowest number in 50 years. (Moscow Times, 02.10.16). 

Senior Russian government official Sergei Donskoi on Tuesday formally presented to the United Nations his country's claim to Arctic Ocean seabed, including an area under the North Pole. Russia is staking a claim, he said, ''to the seabed beyond the 200-mile zone along the entire Russian polar sector including the zone under the North Pole.'' (New York Times, 02.10.16). 

Russia's Kurchatov Institute and state nuclear corporation Rosatom have signed a cooperation agreement "to harness synergies in the joint development of promising new technologies and the modernization of existing technology in the nuclear power and energy transport sector". (World Nuclear News. 02.09.16). 

A survey carried out by the independent Levada Center pollster revealed that 53 percent of Russians would support Vladimir Putin's candidacy if the presidential elections took place the following Sunday. (Moscow Times, 02.11.16). 

The Agora human rights association was ordered shut Wednesday by a regional court, potentially silencing one more voice in a continued Russian crackdown on independent civil society. The Justice Ministry has also asked Moscow's Basmanny District Court to ban independent election monitor Golos (Washington Post, 02.11.16,Moscow Times, 02.11.16). 

Russian opposition leader and anticorruption crusader Aleksei Navalny has filed a lawsuit against President Vladimir Putin, accusing the Russian leader of failing to disclose a conflict of interest in an award of $1.75 billion in government financing to a company owned by his son-in-law. The Kremlin has repeatedly rejected allegations that Putin is siphoning off state funds to a small group of handpicked insiders.(RFE/RL, 02.11.16). 

Mikhail Kasyanov, a leading figure in the political opposition whose image the leader of Chechnya, Ramzan A. Kadyrov, menacingly posted online in the cross hairs of a sniper rifle this month, was attacked late Tuesday in Moscow by a dozen or so men who placed a cake on his head at a restaurant. (New York Times, 02.10.16). 

Defense and Aerospace: 

Russia says more than 20 warships and support vessels have departed from their bases in the Caspian Sea and begun training as part of massive combat readiness exercises across the country's southwest. The military says the snap drill, which kicked off on February 8, will involve up to 8,500 troops and 200 aircraft. Gazeta.ru cited a military analyst saying the air and naval maneuvers were intended to send “a little signal” to the Turks. (RFE/RL, 02.10.16, New York Times, 02.08.16). 

Cold War foes Russia and Pakistan are set to hold their first joint military drills on land, a sign that neighboring Afghanistan may avoid becoming the site of another proxy war between global powers. Russian ground forces will hold military exercises with Pakistan in “mountainous terrain" this year for the first time, Russian Army Commander-in-Chief Oleg Salyukov said. (Bloomberg, 02.10.16). 

Russia's plan to develop a new Barguzin rail-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile looks set to be scrapped as budgetary pressures begin to put pressure on Russian defense procurement. (IHS Jane's Defence, 02.07.16). 

Fiji's government acknowledged Tuesday that Russia donated arms worth $8.8 million, delivered in more than 20 containers to the island country last month. Some 20 Russian soldiers also arrived to train local troops. (Wall Street Journal, 02.11.16). 

The International Institute for Strategic Studies’ analysis of the top 15 defense budgets around the world in 2015 indicates that China and Russia have maintained their overall rank of second and fourth place respectively. However, the double-digit real increase in the Russian defense budget in 2015 meant that it dominated global defense-budget increases last year, accounting for around one fifth of all real global-spending increases in 2015. Total Russian defense spending is estimated to have risen to above 5% of GDP in 2015. (IISS, 02.09.16). 

Security, law-enforcement and justice: 

Former Russian senator Sergei Pugachev is facing jail after a British judge found him guilty of breaching a dozen court orders including failing to hand over travel documents and passwords to e-mail accounts. (Bloomberg, 02.08.16). 

Financial transactions worth 11.7 trillion rubles ($152 billion) were classified as "suspicious" in Russia last year, the TASS news agency reported Monday, citing state financial watchdog Rosfinmonitoring. (Moscow Times, 02.08.16). 

Russian Investigative Committee spokesman Vladimir Markin has confirmed that former Yukos CEO Mikhail Khodorkovsky was declared internationally wanted. (Interfax, 02.11.16). 

Foreign affairs and trade: 

Syria: 

World powers agreed early Friday to on a “cessation of hostilities” in Syria in a week. The hostilities will be halted against all parties except the extremist groups Islamic State and Nusra Front, and any defined as terrorists by the United Nations. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the projected date for ending at least some of his country's airstrikes in Syria is a week from Friday, but he emphasized that "terrorist" groups would continue to be targeted. The determination of eligible targets and geographic areas is to be left up to a task force of nations, headed by Russia and the United States, that will adjudicate differences of opinion. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said what he envisions a week from now ''is a pause.'' Kerry also said the world powers also agreed to expand delivery of humanitarian aid across Syria. The aim is that humanitarian relief begin as early as this weekend, with Russian airdrops to at least seven areas of Syria that cannot be easily reached by road. (Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, New York Times, 02.11.16). 

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that the agreement on Syria announced early Friday called for more military cooperation between Russia and the United State. He said Russia and the United States have set up a working group on the Syria ceasefire, which will involve diplomats and servicemen and determine the “modalities" of a cessation of hostilities, Lavrov said. The working group, he said, could lead toward a joint effort including Russia and the U.S. against terrorist groups in Syria. Lavrov referred to a "qualitative" change in U.S. military policy to cooperate with Russia in continuing the fight against the Islamic State. However, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said there had been no change in the U.S. policy. Rather, he said, humanitarian and other agreed-upon programs would require the ability "to talk about deployment of forces, the presence of people, who can go where, how they get there, and avoid conflict in ways that are effective" to implement the agreement. (Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, RBTH, 02.11.16). 

Salem al-Meslet, the spokesman for a negotiating team appointed by the Syrian opposition to open U.N.-sponsored talks with the government, said before the ceasefire agreement was announced. "Hopefully, we'll see something by Monday." U.N. special envoy Staffan de Mistura said he anticipated an early resumption of talks between the Syrian government and the opposition. Meslet said the opposition would return to talks if the new plan is implemented. (Washington Post, 02.11.16). 

Should the latest attempt at peace talks in Syria fail, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev raised the specter of a permanent or wider "war on Earth" as the United States and Arab nations are now contemplating beginning ground operations in Syria. Medvedev made the prediction in an interview he granted before attending Munich Security Conference on February 12 The war in Syria, the refugee crisis and Russia's border-bending interference on Europe's eastern edge topped the agenda of the conference. (RFE/RL, 02.12.16). 

Saudi Arabia has been discussing plans to deploy ground troops with regional allies, including Turkey, for a safe zone in Syria. If Saudi and Turkish forces were deployed at Syria’s northwestern border crossings with Turkey, for example, they would be inside Russia’s operational theatre. “This would be a total nightmare for the US,” said analyst Aaron Stein, of the Atlantic Council in Washington. “What happens if Russia kills a Turk? They would be killing a Nato member.” (FT, 02.09.16). 

The Russian bombardment of opposition forces north of Aleppo, a rebel stronghold, has severed opposition supply lines and threatened to allow government-aligned forces to encircle the city. The Russian blitz has allowed pro-government ground forces to push north to with 20 miles of the Turkish border. This is the same area where the United States and Turkey have planned to carve out an opposition-held zone to combat Islamic State forces approaching it from the east. "Russia is the second superpower in the world, and Russia is using all of its power against the rebels," said Mohammed Adib, a political officer with Jabhat Shamiya, the main rebel group fighting in northern Aleppo province. (Washington Post, 02.10.16). 

For months now the United States has insisted there can be no military solution to the Syrian civil war. But after days of intense bombing that could soon put the critical city of Aleppo back into the hands of Mr. Assad's forces, the Russians may be proving the United States wrong. There may be a military solution, one senior American official conceded Wednesday, ''just not our solution,'' but that of President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia. (New York Times, 02.11.16). 

Testifying on Capitol Hill on Tuesday, the director of national intelligence, James R. Clapper, offered a sobering picture of Russia's success in Syria, even if it proves a temporary one. “Increased Russian involvement, particularly airstrikes, will probably help the regime regain key terrain in high priority areas in western Syria, such as Aleppo and near the coast,” he said. (New York Times, 02.11.16, DNI.gov, 02.09.16). 

"What we're doing is testing [Russian and Iranian] seriousness," U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said ahead of the Syrian peace talks in Munich. "And if they're not serious, then there has to be consideration of a Plan B. . . . You can't just sit there." (Washington Post, 02.10.16). 

Human Rights Watch said on February 8 that cluster munitions were used in at least 14 attacks across five provinces in Syria since January 26.The attacks killed at least 37 civilians, including six women and nine children, an HRW report said, urging Russia and Syria to stop using cluster munitions. (RFE/RL, 02.08.16). 

Russia's ambassador to Damascus says an estimated 10,000 Russian citizens are currently living in war-torn Syria. (RFE/RL, 02.09.16). 

Russia says there is "no credible evidence" of civilian deaths as a result of Russian air strikes in Syria. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov made the comments on February 9, a day after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she was "horrified" by the suffering being caused by Russia's bombing campaign among civilians. The spokesman also described as "wrong and absurd" accusations by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that Russia was engaged in an invasion of Syria. Erdogan has described Russian President Vladimir Putin as an "occupier" in Syria The Russian foreign ministry has also criticized UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon over his claim that Russian air strikes in Syria had undermined last week's peace talks to end the country's five-year war. (NDTV, 02.08.16, RFE/RL, 02.09.16, Moscow Times, 02.08.16). 

Russian attack planes have destroyed nine trucks carrying ammunition and militants in the Latakia governorate in Syria, Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov told journalists on Feb. 11. (Interfax, 02.11.16). 

Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said that two influential terrorist leaders have been killed in Russian air strikes in Syria. A large group of Islamic State militants, along with their leader Abu Maher, were killed in air attacks around the village of Kalaz Taktani. “Abu Anas Al-Shami — leader of the terrorist group Jaysh al-Sham — was also killed in the same province,” Konashenkov said.(Moscow Times, 02.11.16). 

Two Ilyushin Il-76 military-transport airplanes from the Russian Aerospace Forces landed at Russia's Hmeimim airbase on Feb. 11 morning, delivering some 50 tons of humanitarian air for the Syrian population. (Interfax, 02.11.16). 

Other countries: 

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Russia Dmitry Rogozin in a visit to Baghdad offered to provide more military aid and step up commercial ties, potentially eroding U.S. influence in the war-torn country. (RFE/RL, 02.12.16). 

Vladimir Putin told Nursultan Nazarbaev that the tensions between Moscow and Ankara were caused by the Turkish side and therefore Turkey has to start fence-mending efforts. Restoration of relations with Turkey will be out of the question until it meets the Russian demand for punishing the culprits behind the crash of Russia's Sukhoi Su-24 bomber, Russian Ambassador to Ankara, Andrei Karlov has said (RFE/RL, 02.08.16, Interfax, 02.08.16).. 

Russian-Turkish trade fell by nearly 25 percent last year. And financial losses for Moscow's airports from Russia's ban on flights to Turkey, Egypt and Ukraine amount to 6 billion rubles ($76 million). (Moscow Times, 02.09.16). 

Since taking up his position as Russian foreign minister 12 years ago, the time Sergei Lavrov has spent in the air is the equivalent of 178.5 full days, covering a distance of more than 3.3 million kilometers. (Moscow Times, 02.10.16). 

The European Union has imposed antidumping duties on cold-rolled flat steel imports from China and Russia. (RFE/RL, 02.12.16). 

Russia's neighbors: 

Ukraine: 

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko assured the International Monetary Fund (IMF) he remains committed to pursuing economic reforms and purging corruption from his government. After receiving a sharp warning from the lender that Ukraine's $17.5 billion bailout is at risk on February 10, Poroshenko spoke with IMF managing director Christine Lagarde by phone and agreed to draw up a "road map" aimed at keeping reforms on track. IMF has put aid to Ukraine on hold until it becomes clear whether the current government survives. U.S. Vice President Joe Biden has also urged Poroshenko to quickly reestablish a unified government and carry out reforms sought by the West. (RFE/RL, 02.10.16, RFE/RL, 02.12.16, RFE/RL, 02.09.16). 

Danish Foreign Minister Kristian Jensen said Ukraine must fully carry out the reforms outlined by the Minsk process for regulating the conflict between Kyiv and Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine. Otherwise, "it will be very difficult for Europe to continue united in support of sanctions against Russia." (RFE/RL, 02.05.16). 

Germany is asking Ukraine to propose a new offer to resolve a dispute with Russia over a $3 billion bond default after President Vladimir Putin’s government rejected a proposal put forward last month. (Bloomberg, 02.09.16). 

Yulia V. Tymoshenko, a former prime minister of Ukraine who now leads a minority party in Parliament, said during her visit to U.S. last Friday that she and her allies would staunchly oppose constitutional changes that the United States and European powers view as crucial to carrying out a peace agreement with Russia. Tymoshenko also said that she would push for early parliamentary elections -- ''the sooner, the better'' -- which are opposed by the United States because the parties of President Petro O. Poroshenko and Prime Minister Arseniy P. Yatsenyuk are virtually certain to lose seats. (New York Times, 02.06.16). 

Fighting that had been quiet for several months between Russia-backed insurgents and government forces has picked up in eastern Ukraine, punctuated by regular artillery shelling, the use of land mines and other tactics that have put civilians at risk. (New York Times, 02.11.16). 

U.S. National Intelligence Director James Clapper said in a prepared statement: “The potential for escalation remains…Levels of violence in eastern Ukraine have decreased, but Moscow’s objectives in Ukraine—maintaining long-term influence over Kyiv and frustrating Ukraine’s attempts to integrate into Western institutions—will probably remain unchanged in 2016”(DNI.gov, 02.09.16). 

According to sources in Brussels, EU diplomats have been briefed in recent weeks by U.S. diplomats who have indicated that Russia might become more constructive about resolving the conflict in eastern Ukraine in the coming months. The American optimism stems from a meeting last month in Kaliningrad between Victoria Nuland, and Vladislav Surkov. (RFE/RL, 02.09.16). 

European Union foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini initiated an internal debate last month with a group of fellow European commissioners on how to improve cooperation with Russia, causing concern among EU members that want to keep up the pressure on Moscow over its interference in Ukraine. The European External Action Service will also prepare a discussion paper on the EU's relationship with Russia, to be discussed when the bloc's foreign ministers meet in Brussels on March 14. (RFE/RL, 02.09.16). 

The lead defense lawyer for Ukrainian pilot and Verkhovnaya Rada deputy Nadia Savchenko says Russia and Ukraine have agreed to the conditions of her return to Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 02.06.16). 

Kyiv is planning to spend an estimated $1.7 billion to bring its nuclear power facilities, many of which are nearing the end of their planned life spans, up to current Western standards. (RFE/RL, 02.08.16). 

Other neighbors: 

Azerbaijan says at least five Armenian soldiers have been killed in a clash with Azerbaijani forces near the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region. De-facto officials of Nagorno-Karabakh rejected the statement, saying Azerbaijani snipers had shot a shepherd dead on February 11-12 and shelled the breakaway region's positions with grenade launchers and mortars. (RFE/RL, 02.12.16). 

U.S. National Intelligence Director James Clapper said in a prepared statement: “Tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the separatist region of Nagorno-Karabakh remained high in 2015. Baku’s sustained military buildup coupled with declining economic conditions in Azerbaijan are raising the potential that the conflict will escalate in 2016.”(DNI.gov, 02.09.16). 

U.S. National Intelligence Director James Clapper said in a prepared statement: “Moscow will continue to push for greater regional integration, raising pressure on neighboring states to follow the example of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan and join the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union.”(DNI.gov, 02.09.16). 

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg says Georgia is moving closer to the military alliance by making reforms and major contributions to "our shared security." Stoltenberg made his comments after a meeting of the NATO-Georgia Commission in Tbilisi on February 11. (RFE/RL, 02.11.16). 

A Georgian envoy says the next round of talks between Russia and Georgia on normalizing bilateral ties has been moved to mid-March. (RFE/RL, 02.08.16). 

Tajikistan is to hold a referendum on May 22 on constitutional amendments that would enable President Emomali Rahmon to establish a presidential dynasty. (RFE/RL, 02.10.16). 

The troop presence at the 201st Military Base in Tajikistan, Russia's biggest non-naval military facility beyond its borders, will be downsized from a division to a brigade, a senior Russian general said. (RFE/RL, 02.05.16). 

The United States has rebuffed a pro-Russia politician's claim that Washington was "plotting" Moldova's unification with European Union and NATO member Romania. (RFE/RL, 02.09.16). 

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