Russia in the Middle East

By: Hugo Spaulding, Jennifer Cafarella, and Genevieve Casagrande

Russia reframed the international agenda on Syria with a disingenuous ceasefire agreement. Russia and the U.S.-led International Syria Support Group (ISSG) agreed to implement a nationwide “cessation of hostilities” in Syria in a meeting on February 11. The agreement also included the delivery of humanitarian aid to numerous critically besieged areas, which subsequently occurred. Russia demonstrated its intent to use the “cessation of hostilities” agreement to legitimize continued targeting of the opposition, including U.S-backed groups, in Aleppo Province. Russian airstrikes continued to target vital civilian infrastructure in an effort to weaken the resolve of the Syrian armed opposition and depopulate opposition-held terrain. Aid organizations accused Russia of bombing four hospitals and one school in Aleppo and Idlib Provinces on February 15 alone. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad meanwhile stated his intent to retake all of Syria “without hesitation,” showing that the regime will not adhere to the agreement to cease hostilities. Although Russia’s UN envoy Vitaly Churkin claimed that Assad’s statement was “not in accord with the diplomatic efforts that Russia is making,” his statement underscored Russia’s intent to pose as a neutral party rather than a belligerent supporting pro-regime advances against the opposition. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov nevertheless claimed that the success of the “cessation of hostilities” agreement rests on the U.S.’s willingness to “cooperate” with Russia militarily, exposing the Kremlin’s objective to force the U.S. to abandon its support for the Syrian opposition. 

The Syrian opposition is unlikely to have the capability or intent to cease hostilities. The opposition’s High Negotiations Committee (HNC) was not included in the original cessation of hostility negotiation, and did not agree to the terms. The HNC announced on February 20 that it is ready “in principle” to implement a provisional truce in Syria, if all parties including Russia and Iran actually cease hostilities, and if the Syrian regime lifts blockades on opposition-held areas and releases thousands of prisoners. The HNC does not have sufficient influence within the armed opposition to coerce them to accept the deal, however. The group stated that any truce agreement with the regime must be approved by “faction leaders” from the northern and southern fronts, demonstrating its limited influence. U.N. Special Envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura postponed tentatively scheduled negotiations between the HNC and the regime delegation in Geneva on February 19, stating he “cannot realistically call for new Geneva talks starting on February 25.” The breakdown indicates that actual negotiations between the HNC and regime delegation remain unlikely while Russia continues to provide the Syrian regime with considerable military advantage.

Russia continues to challenge the U.S. by expanding its military and commercial footprint in the Middle East. Russia deployed its advanced Tu-214R intelligence, reconnaissance, and surveillance aircraft to its airbase in Syria’s Latakia Province on February 15, four days after reaching an agreement with the U.S. and its allies to halt hostilities in Syria. The deployment of the spyplane increases Russia’s ability to collect intelligence from and target the armed opposition in Syria. Russia also continued to advance its economic interests in the Middle East as it faces a recession at home driven by slumping oil prices and sanctions that may reportedly force the largest defense budget cuts under Vladimir Putin’s presidency. Russian Deputy Prime Dmitry Rogozin led a 100-person delegation to Baghdad, where he signed an agreement that will reportedly double trade with Iraq on February 11. Russian President Vladimir Putin also hosted a meeting on military cooperation with Iranian Defense Minister Brig. Gen. Hossein Dehghan on February 16. The Iranian defense minister recently revealed Tehran’s desire to purchase supermaneuverable Russian Su-30 fighter jets, a deal that would violate the arms sales restrictions a UN Security Council Resolution imposed on Iran after the July 14, 2015 nuclear deal. The Kremlin rejected an Iranian claim that Russia would deliver the previously negotiated S-300 long-range surface-to-air missile system on February 18, however, stating that Iran had not yet paid for the air defense hardware. Russia is testing a military partnership with Iran through combat operations in Syria, and may seek to expand this alliance regionally. Russia reached a preliminary agreement with Saudi Arabia to freeze oil production, even as bilateral tensions heightened due to Russian-backed pro-regime gains in Syria and Saudi Arabia’s announcement that it was willing to deploy ground forces in Syria against ISIS. The agreement to stabilize slumping oil prices is contingent on the support of other major producers including Iran, which has hesitated to commit to the deal after gaining sanctions relief. Outside the Middle East, Russia may also challenge U.S. interests by cultivating ties in Afghanistan. An unnamed U.S. intelligence official quoted on February 12 reported that Russia was supporting “certain elements” of the Taliban through training camps in neighboring Tajikistan, arms, and financial assistance. 

See: “Russian Airstrikes in Syria: February 2-16, 2016,” by Jodi Brignola, February 20, 2016; “Update on the Situation in Aleppo,” by Jennifer Cafarella, February 16, 2016; “Syrian Armed Opposition Forces in Aleppo,” by Jennifer Cafarella, February 13, 2016; “Besieged and Hard-to-Reach Regions in Syria Proposed Cessation of Hostilities: February 12, 2016,” by Christopher Kozak; “How Russia Controls American Policy,” by Frederick W. Kagan and Kimberly Kagan, February 12, 2016, “Russia Security Update: February 2-17, 2016,” by Hugo Spaulding and Franklin Holcomb, February 17, 2016. Direct press or briefing requests for Russia and Ukraine expert Hugo Spaulding or Syria experts Jennifer Cafarella and Genevieve Casagrande here.