Army Faces a "Crisis of Relevance," Rand Expert Warns

by Minneapolis Star Tribune‎ and RAND Corporation

February 2, 2016 

Army Faces a "Crisis of Relevance," Rand Expert Warns by Mark Brunswick, Minneapolis Star Tribune‎

An expert from the Rand Corp. suggests that more than a decade’s worth of experience in Afghanistan and Iraq has honed the U.S. Army’s ability to fight irregular adversaries. But the Army now faces a “crisis of relevance” for its future enemies, particularly “state-sponsored hybrid adversaries” similar to the Islamic State (ISIL), Hezbollah, Hamas and separatists in Ukraine.

The thoughts of Rand senior researcher David Johnson, a retired Army colonel, may get into the weeds for the average civilian. Critics may also find the implications of his belief in the inevitability of U.S. military engagement off-putting.

But they do offer an interesting challenge about Army engagement - the battles the U.S. has not fought but likely will fight in the future…

The U.S. Army has been at war in Afghanistan and Iraq almost continuously for more than a decade. While this experience has honed the Army's ability to fight irregular adversaries, these may not be the adversaries the Army will need to fight in the future. This perspective reviews the spectrum of military adversaries and operations the nation currently faces, how it has adapted to irregular challenges and the consequences of that adaptation, and the lessons of other recent conflicts. The aim here is not so much to learn about the current conflicts but to help understand battles the United States has not yet fought but likely will in the future — to learn how to address the recurring Army pattern of ignoring potential conflicts while focusing intently on a current one. To counterbalance this focus, the author has synthesized prior RAND research and drawn on personal experience and discussions with current Army personnel. He notes that our country's potential adversaries know U.S. military capabilities and vulnerabilities and are adapting. The Army needs to prepare for the full range of adversaries it is likely to confront, some of whom will be armed with weapons that are now superior to some of its own.

Key Findings

Potential Adversaries Know U.S. Military Capabilities and Vulnerabilities 

These adversaries are adapting. 

The Army needs to prepare for the full range of adversaries it is likely to confront, some of whom will be armed with weapons that are now superior to some of its own. 

Read the entire report.