Russia in the Middle East

By: Genevieve Casagrande and Christopher Kozak

The divergent objectives of the U.S., Russia, and regional powers delayed and ultimately threaten to upend scheduled negotiations to resolve the Syrian Civil War.

UN Deputy Spokesperson Farhan Haq warned that negotiations between the regime and its opponents will likely suffer delays, stating that the UN remains unable to issue invitations to the talks until countries within the International Syria Support Group (ISSG) “come to an understanding” on the composition of the opposition delegation. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry stressed that the negotiations would only be pushed back by a “day or two” and would not constitute a “fundamental delay” in the talks. Russia nonetheless continues to exacerbate preexisting disagreements regarding who would attend the talks. Russia demanded a broader opposition delegation that includes both pro-Russian elements of the internal political opposition as well as the Syrian Kurds. It also reasserted that prominent Salafist opposition groups Jaysh al-Islam and Ahrar al-Sham constitute “terrorist organizations” and rejected their participation in any future opposition delegation. These proposals met with stiff resistance from Saudi Arabia, a key backer of Jaysh al-Islam and other hardline opposition groups that seek to replace the regime with a Salafist government. The opposition High Committee for Negotiations formed in Saudi Arabia in December 2015 named Jaysh al-Islam’s political head as the chief negotiator for the upcoming talks in a possible further attempt to derail negotiations. Leading opposition representatives asserted that the committee would not attend indirect negotiations if the regime and its allies do not cease airstrikes against civilian populations and lift sieges on opposition-held areas. Russia reportedly threatened to send its own delegation of select opposition groups to negotiate with the regime if the mainstream opposition decides to boycott the talks, further highlighting its intent to use superficial democratic processes to preserve its client regime in Syria. Turkey similarly pushed back against Russian demands to incorporate the Syrian Kurds in the talks. Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu stated that Turkey “will never allow” representatives from the Syrian Kurdish YPG to be included in the official opposition delegation to Geneva. Turkey considers the YPG to be an offshoot of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a designated terrorist organization. 

Russia deployed military personnel to Qamishli Airbase in predominantly-Kurdish Northeastern Syria, challenging U.S. leadership of the anti-ISIS campaign and further provoking Turkey. U.S. defense officials and local activists confirmed that approximately one hundred Russian soldiers and engineers deployed to Qamishli Airbase in order to expand the facility to handle Russian military aircraft. Local activists similarly reported the arrival of Russian personnel at Kuweiris Airbase in Aleppo Province. The establishment of an airbase in Qamishli provides Russia with a new platform to stage its aircraft across Eastern Syria and Iraq as well as a lever to reassert regime influence within oil-rich Hasaka Province. Russia could also use the potential deployment of large numbers of Russian personnel or aircraft in order to compete with the U.S. in Eastern Syria. Local activists claimed that U.S. Special Operations Forces (SOF) finished renovating a small agricultural airstrip in Hasaka Province for use as a forward base of operations and resupply point for the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Russia likely aims to undermine the activities of the U.S.-led anti-ISIS coalition as an avenue to reestablish its own claims to great power status and global leadership in the fight against ISIS. Russia is also courting other local actors in Eastern Syria that represent current or potential partners for the U.S.-led anti-ISIS coalition. Russian officers reportedly met with both the Syrian Kurdish YPG and a prominent anti-ISIS tribe based in Deir ez-Zour Province in order to discuss prospects for further military cooperation. The direct outreach to the Syrian Kurds marks a significant new development that will place substantial torque on the stability of the international anti-ISIS coalition, heighten Kurdish ambitions, and fuel security concerns within Turkey. Turkish President Recep Erdogan stated that Turkey “will not tolerate” the deployment of Russian forces along its border. Meanwhile, Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government President Masoud Barzani reopened discussions of an independent Kurdistan in an interview in The Guardian, stating that the Sykes-Picot Agreement had failed and calling for the redrawing of international boundaries according to a new framework.

See: “Russian Airstrikes in Syria: January 12 - 19, 2016,” by Jodi Brignola and Genevieve Casagrande, January 20, 2016; “Russia Security Update: January 5 - 12, 2016,” by Hugo Spaulding, January 12, 2016; “S-400 Missile Radius Map,” by Daniel Urchick, December 21, 2015. Direct press or briefing requests for Russia and Ukraine analyst Hugo Spaulding or Syria analyst Chris Kozak here.