Russia and Ukraine

By: Hugo Spaulding

Russia shows no sign of making peace in Ukraine despite deepening economic crisis at home and diplomatic facelift. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry stated that the U.S. could lift sanctions on Russia in the coming months if the Kremlin fully fulfilled its commitments under the February 2015 “Minsk II” ceasefire agreement in Ukraine, which remains almost entirely unimplemented. Secretary Kerry’s comments served to remind Russia that it must make strategic concessions in eastern Ukraine in order to achieve sanctions relief. Russia has used the “Minsk II” agreement as a platform to pressure the Ukrainian government into making political concessions, achieving the Kremlin’s dual objectives to strengthen its leverage inside Ukraine and undermine support for the pro-Western administration in Kyiv. Russian President Vladimir Putin appointed Boris Gryzlov - a member of his Security Council and inner circle - as the new senior Russian negotiator at the ceasefire talks in late December, raising the possibility of a shift in his Ukraine policy in 2016. Gryzlov stated that he had been appointed in order to “broaden the horizon” for compromise and claimed that Moscow is ready to “seriously move forward” with the implementation of the ceasefire. Collapsing oil prices and the slide of Russia’s ruble to historic lows have added to speculation that Putin may seek an exit strategy in eastern Ukraine, where Moscow reportedly spends tens of millions of dollars per month on pensions and official salaries. A meeting on January 15 between U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland and Vladislav Surkov, a key architect of the Russian campaign in Ukraine, raised the possibility that Russia and the U.S. could kickstart the implementation of the “Minsk II” agreement. U.S. Vice President Joe Biden discussed the possibility of elections in eastern Ukraine with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum on January 21 in a further sign of U.S. intent to push for progress on the ceasefire agreement. There is little indication, however, that Moscow will compromise on its position that Kyiv should make political concessions prior to any action by Russia to withdraw its forward-deployed forces or stop attacks by its proxies along the front line. Russian-backed separatists have made tactical advances near the strategic government-held port city of Mariupol since December, deploying armor and weapons in violation of existing withdrawal agreements. Russia recently blocked an effort to expand the presence of international monitors on its border with separatist territory. Boris Gryzlov maintained consistent Kremlin rhetoric that Ukraine is undermining the ceasefire by not implementing constitutional reforms that acknowledge the “special status” of the separatist-held southeast and failing to reach a direct agreement with the separatists on local elections. Ukrainian negotiator Irina Herashenko stated on January 20 that Kyiv would not implement the constitutional reforms required by the ceasefire until Moscow makes “progress” in fulfilling the agreement. Russia has not yet taken any concrete steps to cede its position of strategic leverage inside Ukraine, making progress on the peace deal a distant prospect.

Russian support to anti-EU and anti-NATO opposition parties threatens stability in Europe. Protestors organized by the pro-Russian opposition broke into the Moldovan Parliament on January 20 calling for snap elections after the government approved a new pro-European prime minister. The pro-Russian opposition had led a no-confidence vote in October 2015 in order to oust a previous pro-European government widely perceived as corrupt. Opposition leaders that maintain political and business contacts with Russia have now threatened “peaceful but long” protests if the new government is not dissolved. The Kremlin reportedly hosted the leaders of the pro-Russian opposition in Moscow in the buildup to the January 20 demonstration,indicating that Russia may be playing an active role in undermining Moldova’s newly-installed pro-European government. The Russian Foreign Ministry accused Moldova of committing human rights violations by denying entry to state media journalists in a direct blow to Moscow’s ability to use the continuing protests to spread anti-Western propaganda. Russian President Vladimir Putin later discussed the “escalation of the internal political situation in Moldova” with his inner circle in a Security Council meeting, suggesting that the Kremlin may take new actions to exacerbate the unrest. Putin used superficial tools of democracy in order to disguise his military operations in Ukraine in 2014 - including mass protests and the storming of government buildings - and may leverage similar methods to destabilize the already-weak government of Moldova. As in Ukraine, Putin seeks to prevent the emergence of a stable Moldova integrated into the European Union (EU) in order to reassert Russia as a competing center of power in Europe. Russia seeks to promote its strategic agenda elsewhere in Europe by supporting political organizations opposed to the EU. The U.S. Congress ordered U.S. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper to lead an investigation into the full extent of the Russian influence campaign in Europe, where leaders of anti-EU political parties have frequently echoed Russian propaganda about Ukraine. Leading Dutch populist Geert Wilders has even supported a referendum in the Netherlands regarding Ukraine’s unratified EU association agreement, employing another democratic tool that Russia has used to obfuscate its aggression in Ukraine. Russia has similarly stoked tensions in the Balkans as part of its confrontation with NATO. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexey Meshkov met with anti-NATO opposition leaders in Montenegro to discuss efforts to stage a popular referendum on the Western Balkan country’s anticipated accession to NATO. Russia has also discussed new weapons deals with neighboring Serbia since pledging “retaliatory actions” for NATO’s accession invitation to Montenegro on December 2. Russia’s efforts to support and ally with existing opposition movements across Europe demonstrates its strategic intent to establish itself as regional counterweight to a weakened NATO and EU. 

See: “Russian-Backed Separatists Seize Village Near Mariupol,” by Franklin Holcomb, January 14, 2016; “Russia Security Update: January 5 - 12, 2016,” by Hugo Spaulding, January 12, 2016; “Ukraine Crisis Update: December 14, 2015,” by Hugo Spaulding, December 14, 2015; Putin’s Information Warfare in Ukraine: Soviet Origins of Russia’s Hybrid Warfare, by Maria Snegovaya, September 21, 2015. Direct press or briefing requests for Russia and Ukraine analyst Hugo Spaulding here.