Pathankot is different – Pakistan hasn’t questioned even once that the attack came from them

http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Globespotting/pathankot-is-different-pakistan-hasnt-questioned-even-once-that-the-attack-came-from-them/

January 7, 2016, Indrani Bagchi

Only the greenest among us believed Pakistan might tone down its terror ways after Prime Minister Narendra Modi dropped in to hug and hold hands with Nawaz Sharif. For many of us who have lived through Kargil and Mumbai, Kabul and Parliament, the question was never an “if” but a “when” the next terror attack would happen. Pakistan did not disappoint – Jaish-eMohammed, sometimes in the ISI doghouse, was pulled out for the Pathankot operation, almost certainly planned before the pappi jhappi. But more than 100 hours and many dead bodies later, we have learnt several things, some repeat lessons, some new ones. 

In 2008, after the ISI-directed LeT attacks in Mumbai shook India, Pakistan’s first, second and third responses remained complete denial that the attacks had originated there, planned and executed from their soil. It was after Pakistan media discovered Ajmal Kasab’s family in Faridkot, US technical intelligence nailed them through their phone calls and David Headley landed in the US net that Pakistan arrested Zakiur Rahman Lakhvi. 

This time Pakistan has not questioned even once that the attack came from them, instead has offered to investigate Indian “leads”. You don’t want to hold your breath here but mark Washington’s second statement on Monday where they laid down the line: “It’s certainly our expectation that they’ll treat this exactly the way they’ve said they would.” That’s progress. 

Second, we knew terrorists were prowling in the tall grasses near the Pathankot airbase. Unlike 2008, we seemed better prepared, and had moved out important equipment etc. But for some strange reason, the suicide squad still came into the base, killed security personnel, left booby-trapped dead jihadis and kept our guys engaged for the better part of 72 hours. And that is where we have come unstuck. Once again we exposed glaring gaps in our security preparation that would make amateurs blush. 

Now for Modi and Sharif to pick up the pieces once again of a peace process that repeatedly encounters the same hurdle at the starting line and leaves us with the same imponderable: we continue official dialogue, the ISI’s terror factory believe they have a free run; we stop, we would be doing exactly what they want us to do. Modi is at the same point Manmohan and Vajpayee have been at various times. 

India threatening to call off dialogue is water off a duck’s back as far as Pakistan’s military-intelligence complex is concerned. If we have to wait for the Pakistan army to “get on board” it would be aproverbial cold day in hell. India needs to understand that the Pakistan army is a jihadi institution with the trappings of a state, and deal with them accordingly. 

At this point, we can safely say the Pakistan army is rattled about two things – the prospect of an energetic Modi on a peace mission, and India supporting Afghanistan with offensive weapons. We should ramp up support to Afghanistan while continuing the peace mission with Pakistan. 

Pakistan believes, not unjustifiably, they are much better off today than before. The Chinese will back them to the hilt because they hold the key to China’s One Belt, One Road plan. Afghanistan may rant and rave, but Pakistansupported Taliban is slowly overwhelming them, and they are getting little help from a world that is preoccupied with ISIS. US believes General Raheel Sharif to be the latest ray of hope. 

What should India do? Hold those official dialogues. Most of them are meaningless anyway, but they keep the Pakistanis off our backs. Build on the NSA-FS dialogue, which could become useful in future. Build India’s security infrastructure… but that’s been a recurring refrain since 2008. Despite India’s limited leverage, India can and must find ways to “act” against the Pakistan jihad factory. 

Most important, the Indian government must figure out how to manage expectations and collective hysteria at home. This can happen with continued engagement that takes the novelty off the India-Pakistan dynamic. Equally, the government should work on its communications machinery – currently it’s a tragicomic mix of Don Quixote and Mrs Malaprop. If only Twitter could do the job. But it can’t. And no, yoga is not more important when Pakistani terrorists are attacking an Indian airbase.