January 6, 2016
Global discussions about maritime issues tend to focus on the Atlantic Ocean, with its attached Mediterranean Sea, and the Pacific Ocean, with the South China Sea. Endless conversations take place about the emerging conflicts, the flow of refugees, the competition over vital hydrocarbons and the geopolitical impact of the two “major oceans.” Yet the 21st century will be more about the Indian Ocean than either of the other two—and the sooner we fully realize that in the United States, the better.
The Indian Ocean, while admittedly smaller than the Atlantic or the Pacific, consists of nearly a quarter of the waters on the globe. Across its vast expanse moves 50 percent of all shipping and containers and 70 percent of all oil, making it quite literally the crossroads of globalization. Nearly 40 nations, with more than a third of the world’s population, border it. Pakistan, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the Arabian/Persian Gulf states all have coastal access to the Indian Ocean; more than 90 percent of the world’s Islamic population is in this massive catchment basin.
It also is highly militarized and always in a state of tension.The greatest potential for nuclear conflict in the world today is between Pakistan and India, which have two huge, capable, professional and nuclear-armed militaries. Iran is an adventurist state with an innovative and battle-trained military force. Many of the other nations along the littoral have internal conflicts and significant chaos along their borders. Piracy, while reduced over the past several years, remains a threat both along the coast of East Africa and in the Strait of Malacca, which connects the Indian Ocean with the Pacific.
The history of the Indian Ocean certainly does not inspire confidence in the potential for peaceful governance in this turbulent 21st century. Its trade routes have inspired competition and conflict since East met West with the arrival of Portuguese explorer Vasco da Gama in 1497. The British conquest of India and the commercial muscle of the British East India Company dominated for a time in the 19th century, but the breakup of the Ottoman Empire and great power maneuvering during World War II led to the Cold War, when American, Soviet, Chinese and Indian vessels played cat-and-mouse.
Today, the principal conflict centered in the Indian Ocean is India and Pakistan. There also is no love lost between China and India in the region, particularly as China continues to expand its commercial influence and basing throughout the Indian Ocean littoral. Pirate activity is taking place along the East African littoral and throughout the western Indonesian archipelago. In the Arabian/Persian Gulf, the Sunni-Shia conflict continues to play out at sea as it does ashore. Yemen is on fire in a manifestation of Sunni-Shia conflict as Houthi rebels seek dominance of the poverty-stricken nation.
The salient questions for the United States are: What is our role? How can we help create U.S. security and stability in the global oceanic commons we depend on for so much of our international trade?
First, we must recognize the vital importance of the Indian Ocean itself. On our maps and globes, it tends to be split to give primacy to “our” oceans, the Atlantic and Pacific. Our strategic and geopolitical “mental map” reflects this, and in all our thinking—from the Pentagon to Fortune 500 companies to academic and humanitarian institutions—we should consciously acknowledge the importance of this vast body of water and its littoral nations.
Second, we must consider India. It soon will overtake China as the world’s most populous nation; it is led by a dynamic and globally oriented leader in Prime Minister Narendra Modi; its lingua franca is English; and, above all, it is a vibrant, legitimate democracy that shares fundamental values with the United States. Too often during the international conferences I attend, we end up discussing China, the United States and the European Union—important, to be sure—but never India. In this 21st century, the rise of India may be the single most important geopolitical driver, and India’s engagement in the Indian Ocean will be an enormous part of that.
Third, the United States must deploy and operate in the region with all its forces. This most obviously requires a strong and deployable Navy and Air Force, but the Army and Marines have work to do as well. The Defense Department should be building more exercises in the region like the recently completed Exercise Malabar that brought together U.S., Indian and Japanese forces in naval exercises.
Fourth, we should continue the global counterpiracy campaign, which has shown success off the coast of East Africa. When we can unite not only NATO, European and Asian allies but also Russia, China, India, Pakistan and Iran, there are few things we cannot do successfully. Within the turbulence of the Indian Ocean, counterpiracy operations are something almost everyone can agree upon. We can help lead that effort. Fifth and finally, the key to unlocking the region’s potential is solving two difficult challenges: the Indian-Pakistani conflict, centered on the disputed Kashmir but truly the result of religious, cultural and historical differences; and the Shia-Sunni divide, which continues to make the Arabian/Persian Gulf volatile. These are long-term challenges, but whatever U.S. diplomacy can do to reduce tensions and avoid open confrontation will be helpful.
Above all, we simply need to factor the huge Indian Ocean into our thinking. It must not be forgotten as we sail into this 21st century.
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