China and India: Tomorrow’s Superpowers

http://thecipherbrief.com/article/china-and-india-tomorrow%E2%80%99s-superpowers 

JANUARY 15, 2016 | JANUARY 15, 2016

China and India are gradually assuming leading positions at the global and regional levels, with over $11 trillion and $2 trillion in gross domestic product respectively.

China initiated a comprehensive plan for expanding its footprint in Asia, Europe, and Africa through its Silk Road and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. China’s leaders called for “protecting interests abroad” at the the 4thforeign affairs work conference in November 2014 and in their May 2015 white paper on defence strategy. At the May 2014 CICA (Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia) Summit meeting in Shanghai, President Xi Jinping called for Asian countries to look after their own security instead of depending on “outside” powers. The International Monetary Fund has recognized China’s currency as a reserve global currency and in doing so, expanded China’s voting power within the IMF from about 3 percent to nearly 8 percent, which both contribute to legitimizing China’s rise.

India, under new leadership since the mid-2014 elections, has made “development” its primary agenda. In the 18 visits abroad in his first year as the Prime Minister, Narendra Modi had assiduously attracted investments and high technology for the successful “Made in India” campaign. During a speech in Singapore, Indian Foreign Secretary Subrahmanyam Jaishankar called for India to be a “leading” rather than “balancing” power. National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, at a speech in Mumbai, suggested that India should punch neither below nor above its weight but “appropriately” in international affairs. India had revised its “look east” policy to that of “act east” policy, which appears to be in consonance with the United States objectives in the Indo-Pacific region, in addition to similar perspectives on the global commons of maritime cyber and space domains. India’s relations with the United States, Japan, Australia, and European countries were strengthened further recently, specifically in defense and strategic fields.

While 2015 and subsequent years may see Indian economic growth rates overshadowing that of the Chinese, it would probably take decades for New Delhi to catch up with Beijing. Although competitive trends are clearly visible between India and China, the leaderships in both countries carefully avoid letting such competition develop into conflict. Still, now and then, bilateral issues, such as the unresolved territorial dispute—specifically transgressions on the un-demarcated borders—China’s relations with Pakistan and other South Asian countries, and Tibet threaten to derail normalcy between the two rising powers in Asia. 

Both countries have worked together coordinating their positions in multilateral institutions, such the World Trade Organization, BRICS, the G-20, as well as on climate change issues. However, a subtle change was visible recently and reflected in the Paris meeting on climate deal. While both argued for “common but differentiated responsibilities,” India took a pro-active position with France and others by joining the initiative on solar energy project instead of insisting that industrial countries’ roll back emissions first. China has yet to join this initiative.

Also, while both nations identified terrorism as the most crucial national security challenge for their countries, the Pakistan factor widened the cleavage between China and India. Beijing has a double standard when it comes to Pakistan and terrorism. China is critical when Pakistan based organizations support the Uighur separatists in Xinjiang Province, but silent or even obstructive when Pakistan-based organizations are involved in terror activities in India. Prime Minister Modi raised this issue with President Xi in mid 2015 but did so in vain.

Global public opinion polls uniformly paint a negative picture of China, except among authoritative regimes in the world. Beijing is increasingly seen as “setting up a different kitchen” – an alternative to the liberal world order led by the United States—while India, even as it asserts the right to frame the “rules of the game,” is seen as generally being too mellow.

Srikanth Kondapalli is Professor in Chinese Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi