UNSC Reforms: India must make most of the momentum

By Chayanika Saxena

24 Sep , 2015

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With the baggage of a moribund predecessor to tow around, the inception of United Nations was seen as a moment when initiatives geared at creating and sustaining international security could be reclaimed. Claiming to have learnt from a past that was bridled with many moments of delinquency, inefficiency and indifference, the creation of the UN was treated as yet another, but a conclusive step towards installing a global society, albeit of a kind that was to be led by some leaders. Acknowledging that the realization of a harmonious order would inevitably demand the placation of those who were ruling the roost of nation-states at that moment, the United Nations was created with a beefed-up and more powerful Security Council that was to be at the helm of all its binding affairs.

This major power vested in the P5 in the UNSC is well-known and is contained in a small, but powerful word – Veto.

1965 War: Observations, Comments and Lessons

By Gen KV Krishna Rao

26 Sep , 2015

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Strategy

A major national war aim of Pakistan was the annexation of Jammu and Kashmir by force. As has been brought out earlier the Kashmir Issue remained dormant for a considerable period after 1949, because of Pakistan’s intransigence, in not implementing the Security Council’s Resolution of August 13, 1948, which called for withdrawal of her forces from Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. During the period, India held three General Elections in Kashmir (including one for Constitutional Assembly), where people turned up in large numbers and exercised their franchise without fear or favour. In these, they gave a constitution for themselves and elected Governments of their choice. Thus, the Security Council Resolution with regard to the Plebiscite in Kashmir, became irrelevant After President Ayub came to power, he decided to reactivate the Kashmir Issue. General Mohammad Musa, the then Pakistani Commander-in-Chief, stated that Mr. Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, the Foreign Minister and other Advisors of President Ayub, pressurised him (the President) to take advantage of the disturbed situation in the Valley and direct the Army to send raiders into Indian-held Kashmir for conducting guerrilla activities there, for establishing bases, and for helping the locals in organising a movement with a view to eventually staging an uprising against the occupying power.

Evolving Dynamics of Indo-US Relations

By Kanwal Sibal

24 Sep , 2015

http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/evolving-dynamics-of-indo-us-relations/

The pro-US lobby in India prefers to see in Prime Minister Modi’s move to invite President Obama an inclination to strategically lean towards the US, shed “strategic autonomy” and end the phase of missed opportunities with the US that marked Manmohan Singh’s second term. This could be misconstruing the significance of Modi’s move, which may well be to strengthen our strategic autonomy by engaging with all countries to maximum potential, opening up opportunities in all directions and separating the economic from the political as much as possible. Modi may not be thinking of taking sides but working with all sides pragmatically. At the end of the day, India and the US have to find common ground to protect their respective interests. Dealing with the US will always test our diplomacy.

Our interests have actually not been served by US policies in West Asia and towards Pakistan…

China 'intervention' during the 1965 conflict

By Claude Arpi

25 Sep , 2015

http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/china-intervention-during-the-1965-conflict/

Analysts celebrate the 50th anniversary of the 1965 Indo-Pakistan conflict.

In this connection, I am posting 4 Appendixes published by the Ministry Of External Affairs in the Notes, Memoranda And Letters Exchanged Between The Government Of India And China between January 1965 and February 1966 (known as White Paper No. XII).

The Chinese have intruded into Indian territory in Ladakh, in the middle sector and in Sikkim.

These Appendixes deal with the Chinese ‘intervention’ in the conflict.

The correspondence between Delhi and Beijing is available in the White Paper XII, which can be downloaded by clicking here.

All the 14 White Papers on China are now available.

On September 23, 1965,The Hindu published the following article entitled ’Chinese intrude at three points’

Cold Start Doctrine

By Col Anil Athale

26 Sep , 2015

http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/cold-start-doctrine/

India has been victim of proxy war since 1999. First in Kargil in May 1999 when regular Pakistani soldiers in garb of ‘Kashmir Freedom Fighters’ infiltrated and seized dominating heights across LoC (Line of Control) in Kashmir. In 2001, terrorists supported from across the border attacked the Indian parliament and came very near to destroying the political leadership of the country. More daring attacks followed, salient amongst them were the Kaluchak1 massacre in which 30 family members of army personnel were killed. There were several cases of bomb blasts in cities and a failed attempt to wipe out Indian scientific community.2

…in the last five years the LeT led combine has carried out ten major attacks in which over 625 Indians have been killed…

Several bomb blasts later, on 26 November 2008 terrorists infiltrated from sea and held the city of Mumbai hostage for 60 hours and killed over 166 Indian citizens. A brief look at statistics shows that in the last five years the LeT (Lashkar-e-Toiba) led combine has carried out ten major attacks in which over 625 Indians have been killed and over 3000 have been wounded seriously. Most of the investigations have reached a dead end or the perpetrators have fled to Pakistan.

Narendra Modi: Social Media Master?

By Ankit Panda

September 25, 2015

http://thediplomat.com/2015/09/narendra-modi-social-media-master/

A round-up of some South Asia stories you may have missed:

Modi’s mastery of social media. After hitting the 15 million follower mark on Twitter, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is officially the world’s second most popular leader on that service, behind U.S. President Barack Obama, who has a 64.2 million-strong following. Though 15 million for a leader of a country with a population of 1.2 billion might not seem that significant, Modi has found ways to make social media work for him in courting the media, foreign publics, and even other leaders. He’s shown a penchant for selfies when traveling abroad (a gallery of his finest selfies is just a click away). When Modi traveled to China, he even took to Weibo to uniquely appeal to the Chinese public.

Nepal Tests India’s Much Touted Neighborhood Diplomacy

By Sanjay Kumar

September 26, 2015

http://thediplomat.com/2015/09/nepal-tests-indias-much-touted-neighborhood-diplomacy/

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi likes to conduct diplomacy in style. Last year, during his first trip to the United States, he addressed a gathering of 20,000 American Indians in New York’s Madison Square Garden in a manner reminiscent of a rockstar. This performance was repeated in Sydney during his visit to Australia last November, and his recent trip to Dubai again demonstrated his flamboyance and flair for public speaking. During his first trip to Nepal last year, Modi not only addressed the Constituent Assembly, but also participated in an elaborate prayer in Kathmandu’s famous Pashupati Temple. On Sunday, Modi is supposed to give a speech in San Jose at the end of his second trip to the USA. One wonders if this kind of fast-paced rockstar diplomacy is yielding the desired results for Indian foreign policy?

Indo-Pak War 1965

Ishfaq Ilahi Chowdhury

http://www.thedailystar.net/op-ed/politics/indo-pak-war-1965-146932

Looking Back 50 Years

Indian Prime Minister Lal Bahadur Shastri and Pakistan President Ayub Khan at a meeting at Tashkent that resulted in a ceasefire followed by Tashkent Treaty. Photo: The Week

This month marks the 50th anniversary of the Indo-Pak War that formally began on September 6 in 1965 and ended with a ceasefire 17 days later on September 22. The war's 50th anniversary is being celebrated both in India and Pakistan. In Pakistan, September 6 is celebrated as the Defence of Pakistan Day and September 7 as the Pakistan Air Force Day. Incidentally, people of Bangladesh, then East Pakistan, played an important role in the war. The 1965 War became a catalyst for a series of events leading to the Liberation War of Bangladesh six years later. 

The U.S.-China Summit: 10 Questions for President Xi Jinping

J. Randy Forbes

September 25, 2015

Source Link

Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in Washington on Thursday for two days of 21 gun salutes, state dinners, and fervent assertions of Sino-American cooperation and goodwill. But beyond the rhetoric, China's recent behavior across an array of policy areas has been the most openly antagonistic to American interests and values than at any time in at least a generation.

China has unilaterally sought to change the status quo in the South China Seaby creating nearly 3,000 acres of artificial formations and making baseless assertions of sovereignty in the surrounding waters and airspace. Just this week, the Pentagon reported that another U.S. plane was nearly hit during an overly aggressive encounter with Chinese interceptors in international airspace, directly contravening the intent of a 2014 memorandum of understanding on unplanned encounters at sea and in the air. By the year's end, China is expected to deploy a ballistic missile submarine carrying nuclear missiles capable of hitting the United States. Meanwhile, the hacking of the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) and the personal information of millions of U.S. government employees has focused renewed attention on the threat of Chinese cyber espionage.

This Is How to Compete With China

Ben S. Carson

September 24, 2015

http://www.nationalinterest.org/feature/how-compete-china-13925?page=show

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Washington this week reminds us that China stands as America’s most serious long-term strategic challenge. Yet the Obama administration’s China policy has been inconsistent and ineffective, at best.

The next commander-in-chief must do better. Under my leadership, the United States would stand by our allies, hold Communist China accountable when it misbehaves, speak clearly for free markets and free peoples and lead with strength and clarity.

Six and a half years into the Obama presidency, Americans rightfully feel enormous angst about the rise of China. Having rocketed to the status of the world's largest economy by purchasing power parity (America remains the largest by absolute size), China is actively challenging the U.S.-led order in Asia; intimidating its neighbors; stealing American intellectual property; waging cyber attacks against U.S. government entities; and creating havoc in world stock indices with its ham-handed financial interventions.

Pentagon Says Chinese Sub That Can Hit U.S. to Go on Patrol Soon

Anthony Capaccio David Tweed

September 24, 2015 

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A new Chinese nuclear submarine designed to carry missiles that can hit the U.S. will likely deploy before year’s end, the Pentagon said, adding to Obama administration concerns over China’s muscle-flexing in Asia.

China’s navy is expected this year to conduct the first patrol of its Jin-class nuclear-powered submarine armed with JL-2 submarine-launched ballistic missiles, the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency said in a statement. It declined to give its level of confidence on when the new boat will be deployed or the status of the missile.

“The capability to maintain continuous deterrent patrols is a big milestone for a nuclear power,” Larry Wortzel, a member of the congressionally created U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, said in an e-mail. “I think the Chinese would announce this capability as a show of strength and for prestige.”

The submarines are part of an effort to modernize China’s military under President Xi Jinping, who will be in Washington Thursday and Friday for a state visit with U.S. President Barack Obama. U.S.-China defense cooperation and competition will be among the topics discussed by the two leaders. The Pentagon and DIA had previously predicted the patrols would start last year.

‘Threat Inflation’

Cyber Sleuths Track Hacker to China’s Military

By JOSH CHIN

Sept. 23, 2015

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The story of a Chinese military staffer’s alleged involvement in hacking provides a detailed look into Beijing’s sprawling state-controlled cyberespionage machinery 

Security researchers have linked a Chinese military staffer to a hacker collective called Naikon. Shown, Chinese People's Liberation Army soldiers during training in northeast China earlier this month. PHOTO: AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES

KUNMING, China—The email attachment would tempt anyone following the diplomaticstandoff between China and other countries in the South China Sea. The Microsoft Word document contained text and photos depicting Thai naval personnel capturing Vietnamese fishermen and forcing them to kneel at gunpoint.

But the attachment was a decoy: Anyone who opened it inadvertently downloaded software that searched their computers for sensitive information and sent it to an obscure corner of the Internet. Manning that corner, according to a new report from U.S. security researchers, was Ge Xing, a member of a Chinese military reconnaissance unit.

What We Learn From Watching Chinese Military Exercises

Robert Beckhusen

September 24, 2015

What America learned from spying on Chinese war games

Recently, a Chinese tank company with the Nanjing Military Region went on the attack. The mission — punch through an enemy defense, press forward, and eliminate any resistance along the way.

This was, of course, an exercise. And the exercise was going well. The armored beasts busted through their objective … when two enemy helicopters armed with anti-tank missiles arrived.

Within moments, the helicopters effectively “destroyed” the whole company, according to a July 25 article in the Chinese military newspaper Jiefangjun Bao Online. The paper noted the helicopter counter-attack “set off an uproar in the brigade.”

The U.S. Army’s Foreign Military Studies Office took note of the exercise in its monthly journal OE Watch. “It was … apparent that commanders were not staying abreast of recent changes in warfare,” the journal stated.

OE Watch translated the newspaper article:

The Significance of Xi Jinping’s US Visit

By Qi Hao

September 24, 2015

China’s President Xi Jinping is in the U.S. on his first state visit, which within China is being widely seen as a historical event comparable to that undertaken by then vice premier Deng Xiaoping in 1979. Xi’s visit is being given an unusually high profile, which seems to signify a new chapter in the bilateral relationship. It is worth exploring the possible justification for this.

It is widely acknowledged that Deng’s visit to the U.S. in 1979 showed that China was ready to be embedded into the institutional network initiated and dominated by the U.S. In other words, China was following America’s lead with the aims of both achieving domestic economic prosperity and balancing against the external threat from the former Soviet Union, which turned China into a de facto ally of the U.S. In this way, Deng’s visit to the U.S. can be interpreted as a dramatic change in Chinese foreign policy, which ultimately brought a seismic shift in the global balance of power.

South China Sea: Conflict Escalation and ‘Miscalculation’ Myths

By Steven Stashwick

September 25, 2015

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The threat of “miscalculation” is again in vogue. What was once a preoccupation of accidental war theorists has resurfaced in discussions about maritime disputes in Southeast Asia and Sino-U.S. relations. During the Cold War, policymakers and scholars worried about nuclear annihilation sparked by misinterpreted warnings, rogue officers, technical glitches in command and control systems, or a lower-level confrontation spiraling out of control. Absent the Cold War’s looming nuclear threat, today’s oft-repeated concerns focus on “miscalculation” causing a local or tactical-level incident between individual ships or aircraft (harassment, collision, interdiction, and so on) to lead to broader military confrontation. Some variation of this theme has been featured in public remarks by former U.S. Defense Secretaries Gates, Panetta, Hagel, and current Defense Secretary Carter, as well as Commanders of the U.S. Pacific Fleet and the U.S. Pacific Command, and was a topic of policymaker discussion going back at least to the 1996 Taiwan Strait incident. These concerns are likewise found in too manyop-eds, reports, interviews, commentaries, and articles to count (see also here, here, here, and here, etc.) However, while history shows that strategic miscalculations can lead states to war, or dangerously close to it, evidence does not support the worry that miscalculation may cause a local or tactical-level incident to spiral out of control.

What to Read on Xi Jinping's US Visit

By Shannon Tiezzi

September 26, 2015

http://thediplomat.com/2015/09/what-to-read-on-xi-jinpings-us-visit/

It’s been a huge week for U.S.-China relations, with Chinese President Xi Jinping making his first state visit to the country. Despite being only four days long (not counting the time, beginning this week, that Xi will devote to UN activities in New York), Xi’s visit spurred an incredible amount of analysis. Here’s a sampling to get you started on your weekend:

ChinaFile has a collection of experts’ thoughts on Xi’s big speech in Seattle. The general consensus: Xi’s speech was well-crafted and well-delivered, but there’s a lot of skepticism that his actions will live up to his words.

International Business Times has an interesting piece saying that China might actually be ready to alter its approach on economic issues that are of great concern to the United States. The author, Salvador Rodriguez, goes against the trend of op-eds arguing that U.S. tech giants are legitimizing China’s actions by meeting with Xi in Seattle. Over at The Telegraph, for example, Willard Foxton argues that Xi’s meeting with these U.S. business czars will put pressure on Washington to make nice with Beijing.

What You Need to Know About China's Cap-and-Trade Announcement

By Shannon Tiezzi

September 26, 2015

Source Link

We finally know what the big announcement for Chinese President Xi Jinping’s state visit to the United States is: China has announced a national cap-and-trade program designed to limit its overall emissions. Theofficial announcement came at the Obama-Xi summit Friday afternoon; the New York Times broke the story on Thursday night, citing White House officials.

Under a cap-and-trade program or emissions trading system (ETS), a government puts a limit on the total amount of carbon dioxide emissions. This cap is set at a level that will lower the overall emissions in the target region; permits for emissions are then issued based on the cap. Businesses can then buy and sell these permits, allowing the market to regulate the cost. China’s national program, to take effect in 2017, will cover “industry sectors such as iron and steel, power generation, chemicals, building materials, paper-making, and nonferrous metals,” according to the just-released U.S.-China Joint Presidential Statement on Climate Change.

No More Dangerous Intercepts for US, China Miltary Aircraft?

By Shannon Tiezzi

September 25, 2015

http://thediplomat.com/2015/09/no-more-dangerous-intercepts-for-us-china-miltary-aircraft/

The Pentagon announced this week that two Chinese fighter jets may have conducted an unsafe intercept of a U.S. surveillance place on September 15. The announcement came just as Chinese President Xi Jinping began his highly anticipated first state visit to the United States.

The U.S. Department of Defense was not nearly concerned by this incident as it was by another intercept in August 2014, which U.S. defense officials denounced at the time as “dangerous.” In the incident last year, the Pentagon accused a Chinese fighter jet of having come within 20 feet of a U.S. Navy P-8 Poseidon patrol aircraft, then doing a barrel roll over the top of the U.S. plane.

The September 15 intercept saw two of China’s JH-7 fighters cross roughly 500 feet in front of a U.S. Air Force RC-135 surveillance aircraft, according to USNI News. Both planes were flying in international airspace over the Yellow Sea, roughly 80 miles off of China’s Shandong peninsula.

Actually, US-China Relations are Remarkably Normal

By Robert Farley

September 25, 2015

http://thediplomat.com/2015/09/actually-us-china-relations-are-remarkably-normal/

In 1793, the Qianlong Emperor penned (or ordered composed) a now legendary letter to King George III, in which he attempted to frame relations between the Qing Dynasty and Great Britain into a traditional Chinese diplomatic framework. Over the centuries, the letter has been taken as evidence of the overbearing arrogance of the Chinese Imperial establishment in the face of the oncoming threat of the West.

More recent interpretations have suggested that the letter includes far more strategic thought than is commonly understood, but there is little question that it remains an artifact of a different era in global diplomacy. The norms of sovereignty and diplomatic equality were still developing in Europe (they continue to develop today), but the letter evoked a much different understanding of the relationship between sovereign leaders than was commonly understood as appropriate in the West.

Why the US-China Climate Deal Matters

By Rishikesh Ram Bhandary

September 26, 2015

http://thediplomat.com/2015/09/why-the-us-china-climate-deal-matters/

Few bilateral deals repeatedly deliver game changing moments. Today’s China-U.S. Joint Statement 2015 marks another milestone that resolutely pushes countries towards an agreement on climate change in Paris this December.

While the Joint Statement is comprehensive in its scope and provides far greater detail on the range of domestic actions that will be taken by both sides (including the announcement of a national carbon market), the show stopper is surely the $3.1 billion commitment made by China to help developing countries tackle climate change.

First, this is $3.1 billion in public resources. And, far from being a notional commitment, China is expected to get the funds moving by the end of this year. Though this commitment will not be counted towards the $100 billion by 2020 goal that developed countries have, it certainly puts pressure on other large developing countries to contribute resources.

Turkey's Turmoil: Why Erdogan and the Kurds Are Both to Blame

Henri J. Barkey

September 25, 2015

Source Link

These have been particularly gruesome days for Turkey as its domestic conflict with the Kurds has once again erupted with a vengeance. Turkish security forces experienced two devastating attacks that caused some thirty deaths in as many days. In response, mobs around Turkey have targeted Kurdish political party headquarters nationwide setting them ablaze. Also, individual Kurds, newspapers, businesses and schools have been the target of unruly mobs, sometimes with deadly consequences. Meanwhile, some Kurdish-majority towns are under strict martial law and reports about civilians deaths abound.

In short, the government seems to have lost or elected to loose control of a rapidly deteriorating situation.

Tajikistan is at the End of an Era

By Catherine Putz

September 25, 2015

http://thediplomat.com/2015/09/tajikistan-is-at-the-end-of-an-era/

First, as it seems Tajikistan has neared the end of its crackdown on the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan, Nate Schenkkan’s most recent Central Asianist podcast is particularly timely. His guest is Hélène Thibault, a post-doctoral researcher at the Center for International Studies at the University of Montreal. Thibault gives a brief but detailed history of the IRPT, from inception to its marginalization over the past few years and its apprent end–its leaders are detained or in exile and it is no longer legal. It is the end of an era.

Particularly interesting is Thibault’s account of her first experience visiting Tajikistan in 2010. She spent most of her time in the northern Tajik city of Khujand where she said the IRPT has a particularly large office. The IRPT, she says, would host lectures, language classes (Arabic and English), and invite other political parties–the Communist Party, the Social Democrats and even the ruling party–to discuss all kinds of issues. She said it was “a very open environment.” But in subsequent years, people began to tell her about harassment and arrests, culminating in party members being forced to read statements denouncing the party. Listen to the whole podcast here.

Lowdown: What Russian Citizens Really Think of Putin and Why

Robert Legvold

September 25, 2015

Source Link

For an outsider, understanding contemporary Russian reality in any season is never easy—one senses, not even for the Russians themselves. They certainly disagree over many of its aspects. I’m in Moscow for much of this fall teaching graduate students at MGIMO and the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy in a video-connected classroom, as I was last fall—soaking up as much as I can, reading, watching, walking, meeting people.

Things feel different from last fall. The leadership, politicians, businessmen, analysts and the public—to the extent that it rises above its indifference to the political world—appear to have accepted the desiccated, friction-laden, arms-length U.S.-Russian relationship as the “new normal.” And it’s with something of a shrug. But then that also seems to be happening in the United States.

Indonesia to Buy New Submarines from Russia

By Prashanth Parameswaran

September 25, 2015

http://thediplomat.com/2015/09/indonesia-to-buy-new-submarines-from-russia/

The Indonesian Navy revealed earlier this week that it plans to purchase two new submarines to augment its fleet.

Navy spokesman Comr. Muhammad Zainuddin told The Jakarta Post that it had opted to procure two Kilo-class submarines from Russia as part of the strategic planning for the next few years. The submarine procurement plan was also confirmed by Indonesian defense minister Ryamizard Ryacudu, who noted that it was consistent with President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s plan to buy new weapons systems instead of second-hand items.

The choice of Russian submarines is far from surprising. The Russian government has repeatedly approached the Indonesian government to offer Kilo-class Type 636 submarines as part of a broader effort to broaden their defense relationship. In January, Russia’s ambassador to Indonesia MY Galuzin made a similar pitch when he met with Ryacudu.

Is South Korea Now 'Hell Chosun'?

By Steven Denney

September 25, 2015

http://thediplomat.com/2015/09/is-south-korea-now-hell-chosun/

The rising popularity of the “Hell Chosun” Facebook group and the “Hell Korea” online forum suggest many South Koreans, especially younger people, are growing increasingly dissatisfied or disillusioned with the state of South Korean society.

Hell Chosun is, according to Se-Woong Koo’s description in a recent Korea Exposé article, “an infernal feudal kingdom stuck in the nineteenth century.” It is a place where ambitions are crushed and free will an illusion: “[B]eing born in South Korea is tantamount to entering hell, where one is immediately enslaved by a highly regulated system that dictates an entire course of life. Onerous education and service in the abusive military are the norm.” The rich and famous bypass the entire hellish system by instrumentalizing their wealth and connections, whereas people of the modern Third Estate either slave their way into a corporate job or “take refuge in the Fortress of Bureaucrats by taking the civil servant examination.” Those who do neither “wallow in the Pool of Joblessness” or “become self-employed and eke out a self-sustaining but disreputable bandit-like existence on the margin of society, or wade through the Forest of Emigration and leave South Korea altogether, finding freedom” abroad.

Hellish indeed.

After a Court Order, Pakistan Will Have to Clamp Down on Climate Change

By Ankit Panda

September 26, 2015

Source Link

A Pakistani court set an important precedent this week when it ordered the country’s government to enforce the 2012 National Climate Policy and Framework. Basically, the court order holds the Pakistani government to the country’s climate change law. According to recent reports, the court has ordered the government to establish a climate change commission to oversee the process of implementation.

The court order is the result of a public interest litigation case initiated by a farmer who claimed the the Pakistani government had neglected the implementation of its own climate policy. Ahmad Rafay Alam catalogs the detail of the case and the implications of the court order in more detail at the Third Pole.

Thailand Cuts 2015 Economic Growth Forecast

By Prashanth Parameswaran

September 26, 2015

http://thediplomat.com/2015/09/thailand-cuts-2015-economic-growth-forecast/

Thailand’s central bank on Friday cut the country’s 2015 economic growth forecast for a third time this year.

The Bank of Thailand (BoT) forecast was revised downward from 3.0 percent in June to 2.7 percent, about half of the rate that was expected just a year ago.

Assistant Governor Mathee Supapongse also told a news conference that the central bank had slashed its export growth projection from a 1.5 percent fall to a much steeper 5.0 percent decline. Thai exports constitute around 60 percent of the economy.

“The main reason for the downgrades is still external factors, especially exports. The economy will recover gradually but downside risks remain fairly high,” she said.

Forced Labor Persists in Uzbek Cotton Harvest

By Catherine Putz

September 25, 2015

http://thediplomat.com/2015/09/forced-labor-persists-in-uzbek-cotton-harvest/

The cotton harvest is underway in Central Asia again, and in due course citizens in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan are being coerced into picking cotton. In the U.S. State Department’s annual Trafficking in Persons report, released in late July, Uzbekistan was graced with an upgrade, ostensibly for making progress with regard to child labor.

In the report, the U.S. State Department writes that the “Government of Uzbekistan does not fully comply with the minimum standards for the elimination of trafficking; however, it is making significant efforts to do so.”

Many Central Asia watchers and human rights organizations questioned the upgrade. The Cotton Campaign, which is a coalition of organizations committed to ending forced labor in Uzbekistan’s cotton industry, denounced the move and noted that the “unwarranted decision decreases pressure on the authorities in Tashkent to end forced labor.”

IN SEARCH OF CYBER DETERRENCE

LAURA K. BATE

SEPTEMBER 24, 2015

http://warontherocks.com/2015/09/in-search-of-cyber-deterrence/

The U.S. government needs to be clear and credible as to what actions it will not stand for and how it will retaliate.

In recent months, the Obama administration has advocated a strategy of deterrence to combat the growing cyber threat. Released in April, the Department of Defense’s 2015 Cyber Strategy calls for a “comprehensive cyber deterrence strategy to deter key state and non-state actors from conducting cyber attacks against U.S. interests.” Almost concurrently, President Obama signed an executive order giving the Secretary of the Treasury authority to issue sanctions against actors that launch cyber attacks on the United States. And recently, Commander of U.S. Cyber Command Admiral Michael Rogers echoed the policy, advocating deterrence by increasing costs of an attack and decreasing perceived odds of success. The deterrence message is broadcasting on all channels.

‘Our government has become paranoid and insane’ – US Cyber Party presidential hopeful

Jason Reed 

24 Sep, 2015 

Our government was founded on the principle of service, but now it is based on power. That has to stop, John McAfee, a computer security pioneer and US presidential hopeful told RT. Government should serve the people, he added.

Legendary computer wizard John McAfee wants to run for the White House in 2016 with his newly created Cyber Party.

RT: What's the main reason you want to run for the US Presidency?

John McAfee: I think the American government is dysfunctional, corrupt and ineffective. It has created far more problems than it has solved in the past 50 years and it continues to spiral downward. We are almost last in the field of education and cyber security as is evidenced by the fact that the Chinese walked away with over 14 million records of our government employees – all of our government employees for the past 30 years – including all of our embedded agents in foreign countries. This is a coup of warfare the likes of which have never been seen before. If something is not done and done soon, I’m afraid that America will just spiral out of existence. And what’s needed more than anything else, I think, is competent leadership in the area of technology. Our congressmen, senators and president can barely spell the word ‘cyber science’, let alone, know how to program a computer. In China, try to find any leader that is not cyber aware. 

Infamous Murder Case Shines Light on Korean Justice

By John Power

September 25, 2015

http://thediplomat.com/2015/09/infamous-murder-case-shines-light-on-korean-justice/

In what prosecutors hope will be the final chapter in one of the most sensational murder cases in South Korean history, an American citizen was extradited to the country on Wednesday to face trial for the 1997 killing of a student at a fast food restaurant.

Arthur Patterson is accused of stabbing 22-year-old Cho Choong-pil to death almost two decades ago at a Burger King in one of Seoul’s most popular entertainment districts. After receiving a pardon for a conviction on lesser charges, including the destruction of evidence, the California native left South Korea in 1999. In a lapse that caused subsequent uproar, authorities reinvestigating the case failed to institute a travel ban in time to prevent his departure. The murder and claims that authorities bungled the investigation became so infamous that they formed the premise of a popular film in 2009, Where the Truth Lies. Prosecutors in South Korea finally indicted Patterson for murder in 2011.

The Japanese Government’s Attack on the Humanities and Social Sciences

By John W. Traphagan

September 26, 2015

Source Link

Recent news stories about education in Japan have noted that 26 of the 60 national universities that offer courses in the humanities and social sciences have confirmed they will either close or reduce faculties in these areas. This follows a decree issued by the Japanese government that universities “serve areas that better meet society’s needs” in a letter sent from Education Minister Hakuban Shimomura to all of Japan’s national universities. The letter called on them to take “active steps to abolish [the social sciences and humanities]” or convert them to academic opportunities in the natural sciences.

Some of the country’s most prestigious universities, such as the University of Tokyo and University of Kyoto have refused to comply with the order, and Takamitsu Sawa, president of Shiga University, recently published an op-ed piece in the Japan Times denouncing the ministry’s philosophy, calling its proposals “outrageous” and its leaders “anti-intellectual.” However, several national universities have indicated that they will cease recruiting students to humanities and social science courses and comply with the edict.

Innovation and the Army Vision:

By Adin Dobkin

September 24, 2015

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Ask three chefs to make the dish they consider to be the most impressive and you’ll face a variety of results. One chef might opt for the beauty through simplicity approach — showcasing the natural elegance of a perfectly sourced piece of fish. The second might prefer to focus on precision — emphasizing the specific coordinates of each measure of sauce, dice of vegetable, and cut of flesh on a plate. Of course, the third might take the bigger is betterapproach — a strategy best represented by the soufflé.

Yes, the well-prepared soufflé is an impressive dish: an elegant dish, a classic dish — a somewhat ostentatious dish — but an impressive one nonetheless. On the other hand, a poorly prepared soufflé is largely inedible. Whereas the other dishes might glide through mediocrity or respectability unhindered, the soufflé is a boom-or-bust culinary endeavor. The Army Vision has the potential to be that soufflé: leaders must ensure the underlying mindset gives it the best opportunity to survive without collapsing.

The Battle for the Soul of the American Military, Part 2

By James Hasik

September 24, 2015

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On Monday, I wrote of how Carly Fiorina, the former CEO of Hewlett Packard, who is running for president, wants a bigger Army, Navy, and Marine Corps. A large part of the solution involves cutting staff at headquarters, and in streamlining management. The corporate parallel is indicated at HP with Fiorina’s successor, Meg Whitman, who is not running for president, but who plans to dismiss 33,300 staff over the next three years, mostly out of the old Electronic Data Systems (EDS) unit. Cloud computing is crushing that business. EDS, of course, was founded in 1962 by H. Ross Perot, who twice ran for president. Perot built that company from scratch when he failed to convince IBM that running computers could be as lucrative as making them. After making a few billion dollars, he sold the company off to General Motors in 1984, around the same time that the car market acquired the Hughes Aircraft Company, in a dream of putting computers and heads-up displays in Oldsmobiles. If that seemed a little ahead of schedule for the 1980s, it says a lot about what’s wrong with the structure of the US armed forces today.