***India’s Veterans Deserve More Than OROP

20 Aug, 2015

http://swarajyamag.com/politics/indias-veterans-deserve-more-than-orop/

Why an overhaul of recruitment, resettlement and retirement polices for the armed forces is necessary.

How does pension work for central government retirees?

Currently, all civilian retirees (recruited before 2004) and all military retirees earn a monthly pension for life that is based on their pay at the end of their service and years of service. This monthly amount has a fixed component called basic pension (typically 50% of last drawn basic pay) and an inflation-indexed component called Dearness Allowance (DA). Also, every 10 years, there is a government-wide pay increase (called the pay commission), during which salaries of all government servants are increased substantially. Retirees’ basic pension is also increased during pay commission reviews, though not by the same percentage as salaries.

E.g. Consider a Deputy Commissioner of Income Tax who retired in 2008 after 35 years of service with a basic pay of 35,000. Let’s call him Ram. Ram’s basic pension would be 17,500. In 2008, the central government’s dearness allowance was 16% of basic pay, and so he would have earned a total pension of 1.16 x 17,500 = ~20,000 per month in 2008. By 2015, the Dearness Allowance (roughly an inflation index) has been gradually raised to 110%, and so he will now receive 2.1 x 17,500 = ~37,000. In addition, in 2018, if there is another pay commission, his basic pension will also be adjusted up significantly! In other words, he will on average, have at least ~5-7% year-on-year increase through DA plus a major increment every 10 years in his retired life.

What is OROP?

Maldives – in path of Chinese squall

By Lt Gen Prakash Katoch

20 Aug , 2015

http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/maldives-in-path-of-chinese-squall/

As per media reports, Maldives president Abdulla Yameen has written to Prime Minister Narendra Modi to assure him that there will be no militarization in the Indian Ocean. This was obviously in response to recent Indian concerns about the recent constitutional amendment which allowed foreigners to own land in the island nation.

Earlier on July 23, after ratifying the constitutional amendment that was passed by the Parliament, Yameen had publicly stated, “The Maldivian government has given assurances to the Indian government and our neighbouring countries as well to keep the Indian Ocean a demilitarized zone.” Indian concerns were quite natural because Maldives is located about 600 kms off the southwest coast of India and 750 kms southwest of Sri Lanka. Maldives consists of a double chain of 26 atolls spread over 90,000 sq kms of territory. It has over 1000 islands that are uninhabited and the country appears getting radicalized at fast pace. Its geostrategic value lies in its location astride three of the most important SLOCs through which most of India’s trade and oil requirements pass, apart from its close proximity to India and Sri Lanka.

The manner in which militarization of the IOR is taking place raises the possibilities of conflict. The aggressive stance of China despite her peace homilies raises troubling questions about the motive behind China’s Maritime Silk Route…

West Bengal Under Water

August 19, 2015

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Subrata Biswas The flooding has submerged thousands of villages in the southern part of West Bengal, August 7, 2015. 

Subrata Biswas Asheema Bagh, 45 with her son stands in their damaged residence in Ghatal, West Bengal, August 7, 2015. 

Subrata Biswas People have nothing to do but to flee for the nearest relief camps, leaving most of their belongings behind as the flood waters engulf their homes in West Bengal, August 7, 2015. 

Subrata Biswas People flee to the nearest relief camps, West Bengal, India, August 7, 2015. 

Subrata Biswas Sandharani Bagh, 42, with her only son mourns after seeing their only shelter completely damaged by the floodwater in West Bengal, India, August 7, 2015. 

Subrata Biswas Acres of crops have been damaged in West Bengal, India due to the flood, August 7, 2015. 

India's Achilles' Heel

By Sumit Ganguly 

August 18, 2015 

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On July 27, three gunmen in military fatigues marched into a police station in Gurdaspur, an urban district in the Indian border state of Punjab. After an 11-hour gun battle, all three terrorists were killed—but so were nine civilians and police personnel. The state had not seen any significant terrorist violence since the 1980s, when a vicious ethno-religious insurgency between Sikhs and Hindus ended. According to the Indian Ministry of Home Affairs, based on evidence collected from GPS devices taken from the scene, the terrorists had come from Pakistan.

Despite the successful containment of the attack—the terrorists had apparently hoped to create more mayhem in the state—the incident has once more laid bare India’s lack of a sufficient counterterrorism strategy. This is despite continued attacks from terrorists based in Pakistan, the most dramatic of which was the one at multiple sites in Mumbai in November 2008. India’s response to that strike, which was attributed to the Lashkar-e-Taiba, was nothing short of shambolic; it took security forces close to 72 hours to suppress the gunmen, at a cost of over 150 lives.

Iran and Pakistan: Back to Business

By Arif Rafiq

August 19, 2015

http://thediplomat.com/2015/08/iran-and-pakistan-back-to-business/

Last Thursday, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif visited Pakistan as part of a multi-country tour to explore opportunities for greater economic and security cooperation in the region following the landmark nuclear deal with the P5+1.

The July nuclear deal likely clears the way for the completion of sanctions-delayed energy projects between Islamabad and Tehran, bringing relief to energy-starved Pakistan. It also creates an opportunity for cooperation between Iran and Pakistan to promote peace in their respective Balochistan regions, creating a virtuous cycle of economic growth and improved security.

Mullah Omar: a myth of convenience

RAKESH SOOD

Source Link

In this undated image released by the FBI, Mullah Omar is seen in a 'wanted' poster.

The dismantling of the Mullah Omar myth was expected to create some fragmentation in the jihadi networks but the fracturing is proving to be messier than anticipated, as events in Afghanistan show, following the U.S. taking a back seat in the region

Mullah Omar, the reclusive head of the Afghan Taliban, was last seen in December 2001 when he escaped from Kandahar, Afghanistan, riding pillion on a motorcycle. Thereafter, he hid in Maiwand briefly before moving to Quetta in Pakistan. No sighting was reported subsequently. His last audio statement was issued in 2006. Two or three statements would issue in his name annually, normally around Eid or regarding a major development in Afghanistan. The last one, issued during Ramzan in mid-July, was significant as it supported, for the first time, the peace talks between the Afghan Government and Afghan Taliban representatives held on July 7, 2015, in Murree, Pakistan. The representatives of China and the United States also participated.

Terror’s godfather Hamid Gul’s legacy is an army that is both a patron and a victim of terror.

by Bruce Riedel 

August 20, 2015 

http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/terrors-godfather

Known as the “father of the Taliban” – a moniker many in Pakistan lay claim to – Gul was the protégé of former Pakistani dictator, General Zia ul-Haq. 

Hamid Gul, the former head of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence spy agency, who passed away on August 15, was the epitome of a Pakistan army officer who became an advocate and supporter of the global jihad. His legacy is an army that remains both a patron and a victim of terror. South Asia and the world are more dangerous thanks to his years of duplicity and violence.

Gul died at the age of 78 in Murree. He joined the Pakistan army in 1956 and fought in the 1965 and 1971 wars with India as a tank commander. He became a protege of General Zia-ul-Haq and succeeded his patron as commander of the powerful First Armoured Division in 1980 after Zia had seized power in a coup.

Is Peace Possible in Afghanistan?

By Carter Malkasian

August 18, 2015

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Mullah Omar's Death and the Future of Peace Talks

The first seven months of 2015 saw unprecedented movement toward peace in Afghanistan. A series of unofficial meetings between the Taliban and the Afghan government culminated in an official meeting in Pakistan on July 7. A second meeting was scheduled for July 31. The gatherings were preliminary, but real peace talks appeared close at hand. Then, on July 29, the world learned of the death of Taliban leader Mullah Omar.

Mullah Omar was always the wild card for peace talks. Only he could ensure that the Taliban would stand together behind a deal, experts said. Without his endorsement, the talks would be illegitimate.

Sure enough, with the announcement of Mullah Omar’s death, momentum toward peace came to a halt. The meeting set for July 31 was postponed indefinitely. Then Omar’s successor, Mullah Akhtar Mohammed Mansour, rejected negotiations altogether and reissued the call for jihad against the United States and the Afghan government. Nearly a week after that, over the course of four days, three bombings wrecked Kabul, killing and injuring nearly 400 Afghans. The Taliban claimed responsibility. The question now is whether the window for peace talks is closed.

Pakistan must be shown its strategic vulnerability

August 19, 2015 

Source Link

'As India and Pakistan observe the 50th anniversary of the 1965 war, the one lesson that ought to have been learned by Pakistan is how vulnerable its heartland is to a sudden attack. The only alternative to this inherent geographic weakness is to have a policy of peace with India.'

'In an extreme scenario, India can destroy Pakistani strategic targets by just artillery shelling, crossing of the border is not even necessary,' says Colonel Anil A Athale (retd).

India and Pakistan's national security advisors are slated to meet on August 23-24 in New Delhi. According to the agenda set by the two prime ministers, the two NSAs are to discuss terrorism. There has been the usual political slugfest between the ruling party and those in the Opposition.

In the noise and din, a central point that has been lost is that these are basic contacts meant to keep the communication going and are NOT any kind of negotiations. But with the latest twist of Pakistani invitations to Kashmiri separatists, it seems that the talks may well not take place at all!

Towards A Real Solution to Southeast Asia's Refugee Crisis

By Antje Missbach

August 19, 2015

http://thediplomat.com/2015/08/towards-a-real-solution-to-southeast-asias-refugee-crisis/

This article is part of “Southeast Asia: Refugees in Crisis,” an ongoing series by The Diplomat for summer and fall 2015 featuring exclusive articles from scholars and practitioners tackling Southeast Asia’s ongoing refugee crisis. All articles in the series can be found here.

It took the foreign ministers of Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand more than ten days to sign a joint agreement that would allow the rescue of thousands of dehydrated and starving Rohingya and Bangladeshis who had been drifting in the Andaman Sea for weeks. Under enormous international pressure, these three countries offered to help 7,000 people at sea. In fact, their gesture is far less meaningful than it seems.

Alarmed by the first arrivals on 10 May, at first, the three countries stepped up their maritime patrols. Indonesia sent out three more warships and a plane to control its territory. Instead of allowing people in dire need to disembark, their boats were pushed back into sea after being provided with food, water and fuel to continue their journey. Each government claimed its country was not the desired destinations of these boatpeople. This deadly ping-pong continued, despite harsh criticism from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and the International Organization for Migration (IOM), which warned that any further delay would turn these boats into floating coffins.

Traveling China’s New Silk Road

Robert D. Kaplan

August 20, 2015 

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Chinese civilization has historically been centered on its fertile east. Its expansion into the deserts of Central Asia creates fresh geopolitical opportunities for Beijing—and new dangers.

THE THOUSANDS of terra-cotta warriors from the third-century-BC Qin Dynasty, first unearthed in the mid-1970s, constitute one of the wonders of the world. I stared down into the vast clay pit where these life-sized soldiers, no two of them exactly alike, stand in a state of freeze-frame marching. They are all headed east. For Qin, though in the heart of today’s China, had been the westernmost of the Warring States. Thus, to the east lay all of Qin’s enemies. Beyond Qin, in the opposite direction westward, the agricultural cradle that has always defined Chinese civilization begins to give way to the emptier deserts of Central Asia.

A short drive from the site of the terra-cotta warriors in Shaanxi Province brought me to the Great Mosque of Xian, an eclectic confection of Arabic script underneath a traditional, upturned Chinese roof decorated with peacock-blue Persian tiles. The minaret here is easily mistaken for a pagoda. The result makes for an exquisite aesthetic, mixing the Middle East and the Far East, made even more precious by the dust. The Han-related Hui people, who maintain this mosque, account for the easternmost tentacle of Islam on the main body of the Asian mainland: the medieval Silk Road begins and ends right here—in what is, to repeat, the heart of the current Chinese state. For China’s political borders now encompass much more than the agricultural core of historic Han China.

China Tests Its Most Dangerous Nuclear Weapon of All Time

Zachary Keck

August 19, 2015

Source Link

China conducted a flight test of its new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) this month.

This week, Bill Gertz reported that earlier this month, China conducted the fourth flight test of its DF-41 road-mobile ICBM.

“The DF-41, with a range of between 6,835 miles and 7,456 miles, is viewed by the Pentagon as Beijing’s most potent nuclear missile and one of several new long-range missiles in development or being deployed,” Gertz reports.

He goes on to note that this is the fourth time in the past three years that China has tested the DF-41, indicating that the missile is nearing deployment. Notably, according to Gertz, in the latest test China shot two independently targetable warheads from the DF-41, further confirming that the DF-41 will hold multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRV).

As I’ve noted before, China’s acquisition of a MIRVed capability is one of the most dangerous nuclear weapons developments that no one is talking about.

Foreign Policy by Bumper Sticker

Richard BurtDimitri K. Simes

August 20, 2015

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There is a conspicuous gap between the complex challenges America confronts in the world arena today and our wholly inadequate conversation about international affairs.

THE WORLD today is quite different from the one of thirty years ago, whenThe National Interest published its first issue. Since then, immensely important changes, both at home and abroad, have taken place that continue to confound American political elites.

Among the most significant was the peaceful collapse of the Soviet Union, a state which TNI’s founding editors described as “the single greatest threat to America’s interests,” saying it would “continue to [be] so for the foreseeable future.” Yet the USSR ceased to exist in 1991, just six years after the magazine’s start.

This is certainly not a reflection on The National Interest’s founding editors, Owen Harries and Robert Tucker, both of whom set a very high bar indeed for their successors. No one, including inside the Soviet Union itself, anticipated how and when it would fall—to use Ronald Reagan’s language—into the ash heap of history. Conventional wisdom on both the left and right was that the Soviet Union would remain a viable enterprise.

China Investigates Executives, Top Work Safety Official After Tianjin Explosions

By Shannon Tiezzi

August 20, 2015

Source Link

One week ago today, explosions in Tianjin left a giant crater where a chemical warehouse used to be and burned out 20,000 square meter of the surrounding area. As of Monday, the death toll had grown to 114, with 70 still missing (although not all of the deceased have been identified, so there may be overlap between the death toll and the list of missing persons).

It was soon revealed that the blast had occurred at a warehouse storing hazardous materials, which launched a nationwide review of how Chinese businesses store and transport dangerous chemicals.

The Chinese government also appears to be moving swiftly toward taking legal action in response to the explosions. On Wednesday, Xinhua interviewed executives of Tianjin Ruihai International Logistics Co. Ltd., the company that owned and operated the warehouse at the center of the explosion. Tellingly, the Xinhua lede introduced the firm as “a dubious company” and noted that all of executives interviewed for its story (“including company head Yu Xuewei, deputy head Dong Shexuan, general manager Zhi Feng and vice manager Cao Haijun”) are being held by the police.

Have China's CO2 Emissions Been Greatly Overestimated?

By Alex John and John McGarrity

August 20, 2015

http://thediplomat.com/2015/08/have-chinas-co2-emissions-been-greatly-overestimated/

How much does carbon dioxide does China really emit? The question has long been a vexed one, particularly at climate talks, and is crucial because for almost a decade China has been ranked as the world’s largest emitter of the gas blamed mainly for climate change. That means the world’s largest energy consumer is under strong pressure to sign up to a global deal in Paris at the end of year that limits future growth in its CO2 emissions.

But China’s output of CO2 may have been substantially overestimated by international agencies for more than 10 years, mainly because researchers have factored in the wrong type of coal, says a new study by the United Kingdom’s University of East Anglia (the full report will be published in Nature Magazine’s website on August 20). In terms of climate change, this matters for several, crucial reasons.

China Challenging All Foundations of US Military Power: Ex-US Official

By Prashanth Parameswaran

August 20, 2015

Source Link

China is challenging all major foundations of American military power, a former U.S. defense official said in a speech Wednesday.

Since the end of the World War II, U.S. military superiority has relied on three major foundations, Trey Obering, the former director of the Missile Defense Agency (MDA), told an audience at the Hudson Institute, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank. These were superior strategic intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities (ISR); the ability to project power globally; and an overwhelming dominant technological advantage across a spectrum of conflict.

But China, Obering said, was now challenging all three of these major foundations of American power.

“I believe that China is challenging the United States, specifically targeting our strategic ISR, our power projection capabilities, and our technological advantages with their missile programs,” he said.

China's Crisis: The Price of Change

By Rodger Baker

August 19, 2015

Last week was an eventful one for China. First, the People's Bank of China shocked the financial world when it cut the yuan's reference rate against the U.S. dollar by nearly 2 percent, leading to a greater than 2 percent drop in the value of the yuan in offshore trading. The decline triggered a frenzy of speculation, including some expectations that the Chinese move would trigger a race to the bottom for Asian currencies. Beijing said the adjustment was designed to fix distortions between the trading rate of the yuan and the rate it should have been at according to speculation, and that subsequent large shifts were unlikely. The International Monetary Fund, however, noted that the move could lead to a freer floating yuan - something the IMF has asked of Beijing before the organization considers including the yuan in its Special Drawing Rights basket of currencies. In comments made on the sidelines of its annual report on the Chinese economy, released later in the week, the IMF also noted that the yuan was not undervalued, despite the decline.

With Focus on ISIS, the Middle East Is Fracturing

By Lydia Khalil

August 19, 2015

Source Link

The Syrian conflict, now in its fourth, unrelenting year, is an unmitigated disaster. By any measure – strategic, humanitarian, political, social or environmental – the conflict has ravaged the Middle East.

The humanitarian toll is overwhelming. Over a quarter of a million are dead and half of the country's population is displaced. While there are coalition air strikes against ISIS-held territory, there is no cogent military strategy. Though there has been a flurry of diplomatic activity recently, no political agreement is on the horizon either. 

No one could have predicted that what started as peaceful protests against Assad's authoritarian regime could spiral so thoroughly out of control and lead to the establishment of ISIS and the fracturing of the Syrian state. The world continues to lament the state of Syria but has been unable to muster any solutions.

In time, there will likely be no more Syria.

U.S. Official: Saudis Have Used Cluster Bombs in Yemen

By Paul D. Shinkman

Aug. 19, 2015

Source Link

Deployment of the weapons comes as the U.S. has taken a more hands-off approach to conflicts in the region.

The U.S. knows the Saudi government has employed cluster bombs in its ongoing war against Shiite Muslim rebels in neighboring Yemen, but has done little if anything to stop the use of the indiscriminate and deadly weapons during what has become a human rights catastrophe in one of the Arab world's poorest countries.

With watchdog groups warning of war crimes and attacks striking civilians in Yemen, the Pentagon declined to comment publicly on whether it has discussed cluster bombs with Saudi Arabia or encouraged its military to cease using them, deferring all such questions to the State Department. But a Pentagon official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, tells U.S. News "the U.S. is aware that Saudi Arabia has used cluster munitions in Yemen."

The Nuclear Deal with Iran Isn't Enough

Gene Gerzhoy

August 20, 2015

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One of the contentious debates surrounding the recent nuclear deal with Iran concerns whether or not U.S. negotiators should have demanded broader shifts in Iranian foreign policy before signing any agreement. Critics of the deal argue that by providing sanctions relief before Iran curtailed its support for Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthi rebels, and Bashar al-Assad, the United States effectively agreed to bankroll Iran’s regional influence.

In response, the Obama administration has argued that by focusing on Iran’s nuclear program, U.S. negotiators were better able to avoid war while containing the most threatening of Iran’s ambitions—namely, its quest for nuclear weapons. This controversy raises a broader question: can U.S. agreements with nuclear-aspiring adversaries persist over the long term without a broader resolution of bilateral tensions?

I am currently revising a book manuscript that directly addresses this question by identifying the conditions under which nuclear aspirants comply with or defy U.S. demands for nuclear restraint. In my research, I have found that states peacefully give up their ambitions when they expect to suffer steep military or economic costs for pursuing nuclear weapons and when their security environment no longer compels them to acquire a deterrent.

Saudi Arabia's 5 Most Lethal Weapons of War

Daniel R. DePetris

August 19, 2015 

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/saudi-arabias-5-most-lethal-weapons-war-13624

Oil can buy one amazing military.

For Saudi Arabia, the conservative Gulf kingdom whose number one priority in the region is to keep the status quo, it’s hard not to come to the conclusion that the entire Middle East is on the fire. Indeed, if Saudi Arabia resembled a giant mansion in the middle of the neighborhood, the rest of the street would be littered with abandoned houses and empty lots. In other words, the neighborhood outside the Kingdom doesn’t look good at the moment, and King Salman bin Abdulaziz knows it.

With Syria largely split among what is left of the Assad regime and dozens of Islamist factions, Iraq in the middle of its own large-scale war with ISIL, Yemen in a state of civil war, and ISIL launching sporadic terrorist attacks on mosques and police officers in the Kingdom itself, King Salman’s number one job is ensuring that the Saudi armed forces have the equipment and support that they need. To that effect, the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques is doing his job quite well.

Al Qaeda Is Losing the Battle for Jihadi Hearts and Minds

BY DANIEL BYMAN, JENNIFER R. WILLIAMS 

AUGUST 19, 2015

http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/08/19/al-qaeda-losing-battle-jihadi-hearts-minds-zawahiri-tape/

Ayman al-Zawahiri's latest audio tape shows that the group that organized 9/11 is a bunch of cranky old men compared to the Islamic State.

Al Qaeda Is Losing the Battle for Jihadi Hearts and Minds

Terrorists usually try to stay in the news, but Ayman al-Zawahiri has seemed an exception. Al Qaeda’s leader has gone almost a year between public statements before breaking his silence last Thursday. The archterrorist’s remarks, however, were as underwhelming as they were overdue. Zawahiri declared his loyalty to Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansour, the new Taliban leader, but otherwise his communiqué contained little of interest.

Much has occurred in the world of jihad since Zawahiri’s last public statement in September 2014: the death of al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula leader Nasir al-Wuhayshi, who was widely considered to be al Qaeda’s second in command and had close personal ties to Zawahiri and his predecessor Osama bin Laden; the deaths of two other al Qaeda heavyweights, likely in U.S. airstrikes; the continued rise of the Islamic State as a direct threat to al Qaeda’s leadership of the global jihadi movement; the decision by Saudi Arabia to intervene in the Yemeni civil war; and, of course, the revelation that Taliban leader Mullah Omar has apparently been dead for the past two years.

ISIS and the Graves of Prophets

by Ronald Tiersky 

August 11, 2015

A prophet's grave is often a myth.

Abraham, the Ur-prophet of all three monotheistic faiths, is said to be interred in the Cave of the Patriarchs in Hebron, in the West Bank, along with his sons Isaac and Jacob, and the wives of all three. The Hebrew Bible says that Moses died and was buried on Mount Nebo, in Jordan, forbidden by God to enter the Promised Land. Jesus, according to the New Testament, was interred in Jerusalem, in a cave near the site of the crucifixion. But there is no physical evidence for any of these burials, only the stories in the Holy Books.

The case of Islam's Prophet Mohammed (570-632 AD) is different. There are detailed histories of his life, and Mohammed's tomb in Medina (along with those of his family and early companions) has stood continuously since his death. The monumental al-Masjid al-Nabawi mosque was constructed around the tomb, which sits on the site of Mohammed's home. Muslims around the world revere the place, and each year hundreds of thousands visit it as a side trip on the hajj pilgrimage to the black granite Ka'aba building in Mecca. The two cities, Mecca and Medina, are in Saudi Arabia. Thus the Saudis are custodians of Islam's two holiest sites, and Saudi Arabia is the geographical center of Islam. 

Debunked: Chuck Schumer's Failed Case against the Iran Nuclear Deal

Tom Z. Collina

August 20, 2015

Source Link

Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) announced this month that he would oppose the international agreement to prevent an Iranian nuclear bomb, the first Democrat in the Senate to do so. “I believe we should go back and try to get a better deal,” Schumer said. “The nations of the world should join us in that.”

And then Sen. Schumer got a surprise: two high-level groups with stellar credentials, one of senior nuclear scientists and the other of retired generals and admirals, came out in support of the deal.

Awkward.

Schumer’s position was not strong to begin with. In response to the senator’s assertion that the United States could get international support for new talks, Secretary of State John Kerry, who negotiated the deal, said, “Are you kidding me?”

If the United States walks away from this deal, other nations will not follow. Why should they? U.S. allies support the deal we already have. In fact, they negotiated it. The United States worked in lock step with the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Russia and China. If this deal goes down the drain, there will be no other deal.

This Is How the Russian Military Plans to Fight Future Wars

Dmitry Gorenburg

August 20, 2015

Source Link

Russia is actively seeking out areas of relative strength to compensate for its military’s overall weakness.

Given the amount of attention paid over the last year to the capabilities of the Russian military, it is worth considering how the evolving character of warfare over the next 10-20 years is likely to affect Russia’s military capabilities when compared to leading Western states.

The trend toward greater automation, including the use of remote control weapons and AI-driven autonomous warfare, will increasingly put the Russian military at a disadvantage. Russia does not have the technology to match Western automated systems and lacks the capabilities to develop such systems on its own in the foreseeable future. Russia’s defense industry is well behind Western militaries in automated control systems, strike drones, and advanced electronics of all kinds.

We Asked Joseph Nye: What Should Be the Purpose of American Power?

Joseph S. Nye Jr

August 20, 2015

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Editor’s Note: The following is part of TNI’s special 30th anniversary symposium. We asked twenty-five of the world’s leading experts: What is the purpose of American power? You can find all of their answers here. You can also find our exclusive interview with Henry Kissinger here.

Since World War II, the United States has led, albeit imperfectly, in the production of global public goods such as a balance of military power, international monetary stability, an open trading system and freedom of navigation. That leadership should continue to be a central purpose of our foreign policy, because if the strongest country does not produce public goods, we and others will suffer from their absence.

Americans go through cycles of belief that we are in decline. While the United States has many problems (nothing new there), it is not in absolute decline like ancient Rome, which had no productivity growth. Because of immigration, we are the only major developed country that will not suffer a demographic decline by midcentury; our dependence on energy imports is diminishing rather than increasing; we are at the forefront of the major technologies that will shape this century; and our universities dominate the world rankings. We have more allies and connections than any other country.

We Asked Paul Kennedy: What Should Be the Purpose of American Power?

Paul Kennedy

August 20, 2015

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"Its purpose should be to sort out its international purpose."

Editor’s Note: The following is part of TNI’s special 30th anniversary symposium. We asked twenty-five of the world’s leading experts: What is the purpose of American power? You can find all of their answers here. You can also find our exclusive interview with Henry Kissinger here.

The American nation-state, as Bismarck once observed, is quite lucky. It is blessed with abundant woods, grass and water. It possesses vast amounts of raw materials. It has a benign, prosperous, unthreatening neighbor to the north and a messy, unthreatening neighbor to the south; by contrast, Russia and China each have fourteen troublesome ones. The nearest large military powers to the United States lie three thousand miles across the Atlantic, and, ignoring Alaska, six thousand miles across the Pacific.

We Asked Ian Bremmer: What Should Be the Purpose of American Power?

Ian Bremmer

August 20, 2015

Source Link

"For Washington, choices loom."

Editor’s Note: The following is part of TNI’s special 30th anniversary symposium. We asked twenty-five of the world’s leading experts: What is the purpose of American power? You can find all of their answers here. You can also find our exclusive interview with Henry Kissinger here.

Only the United States can combine military muscle, economic clout and cultural appeal to exert power in every region of the world. It will remain the world’s sole superpower for the foreseeable future. How should America use that power? To promote American values, advance U.S. interests, do both or do something else entirely? For Americans and the future of their country, what is the wisest path forward?

For decades, the Soviet threat persuaded Washington to use the nation’s power in support of both American values and U.S. interests around the world. The Cold War sometimes blurred the line between the two as some U.S. policy makers argued that each bolstered the other. But when the Soviet Union imploded, so did the strategic coherence of U.S. foreign policy.

We Asked Tom Cotton: What Should Be the Purpose of American Power?

Tom Cotton

August 19, 2015 

Source Link

"First, we must reinvigorate our military."

Editor’s Note: The following is part of TNI’s special 30th anniversary symposium. We asked twenty-five of the world’s leading experts: What is the purpose of American power? You can find all of their answers here. You can also find our exclusive interview with Henry Kissinger here.

In no region of the world is U.S. influence greater than it was six years ago. In fact, in many regions, it’s greatly diminished. The post–Cold War consensus is under threat in Europe. The balance of power in the Asia-Pacific is tipping toward China. And the Middle East has entered a period of upheaval and possible realignment that threatens the United States and our allies. On the strategic challenges of our time, we’re hard-pressed to identify any major achievements under our current commander in chief that are not eclipsed by broader failures.

Jacob Heilbrunn, spoke with Henry Kissinger in early July in New York.

The National Interest’s editor, Jacob Heilbrunn, spoke with Henry Kissinger in early July in New York. 

Jacob Heilbrunn: Why is realism today an embattled approach to foreign affairs, or perhaps not as significant as it was when you had figures such as Hans Morgenthau, George F. Kennan, Dean Acheson, then yourself in the 1970s—what has changed?

Henry Kissinger: I don’t think that I have changed my view on this subject very much since the seventies. I have always had an expansive view of national interest, and much of the debate about realism as against idealism is artificial. The way the debate is conventionally presented pits a group that believes in power as the determining element of international politics against idealists who believe that the values of society are decisive. Kennan, Acheson or any of the people you mentioned did not have such a simplistic view. The view of the various realists is that, in an analysis of foreign policy, you have to start with an assessment of the elements that are relevant to the situation. And obviously, values are included as an important element. The real debate is over relative priority and balance.

Heilbrunn: One of the things that struck me in the new biography of you by Niall Ferguson is his quotation from your personal diary from 1964. You suggested rather prophetically that “the Goldwater victory is a new phenomenon in American politics—the triumph of the ideological party in the European sense. No one can predict how it will end because there is no precedent for it.”

Why Are So Many of the World’s Best Companies Run by Indians?

BY RUPA SUBRAMANYA

AUGUST 18, 2015

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Why Are So Many of the World’s Best Companies Run by Indians?

In the popular imagination, India is perhaps best known for its exports of curry, yoga, and Bollywood films. But another product is becoming a winner, too: chief executives of major multinational companies, including several based in the United States. The most recent to join this growing group is Indian-born Sundar Pichai, just named chief executive of Google after its reorganization. He joins Satya Nadella, the Indian-born head of Microsoft, who got the top job there last year; and chief executives of Indian origin have or continue to run major firms such as Citibank, MasterCard, and PepsiCo.

According to a study in Harvard Business Review, as of mid-2013, India’s export share of Fortune Global 500 company CEOs — that is, CEOs who are heads of companies headquartered in a country not their own — is 30 percent. That places India in territory comparable to countries like Switzerland and the United Kingdom. Because of the visibility of these posts, the success of Indian-born chief executives in the cutthroat global arena is quite striking to their fellow Indians. To think that a country that until recently was considered synonymous with poverty and destitution is now producing world-beating chief executives at iconic global companies is a source of national pride.

Time for the US to Punish China in Cyberspace?

By Prashanth Parameswaran

August 20, 2015

http://thediplomat.com/2015/08/should-the-us-punish-china-in-cyberspace/

Over the past few weeks, attention has been focused on the Obama administration’s response to China for the hack on the Office of Personnel Management (OPM), which compromised the personal information of more than 20 million Americans. In a July 31 article in The New York Times, David Sanger reported that while the administration has determined that it ought to retaliate against Beijing, officials have struggled to determine exactly what options to pursue.

The question of how the United States should respond to the attack – still not officially attributed to China by the Obama administration – took center stage at an August 19 panel discussion on the issue at the Atlantic Council, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank. The event took place just weeks before Chinese President Xi Jinping’s upcoming visit to the United States.

6 Things Washington Doesn’t Get About Hackers

BY MICAH ZENKO 

AUGUST 19, 2015

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Now is the time to understand more about vuln, so that we may fear less.

6 Things Washington Doesn’t Get About Hackers

For a forthcoming book (shameless plug: preorder now!), I spent the last several years interviewing over 100 security researchers, usually self-described as “hackers,” attending security conferences, and watching how these professionals uncovered vulnerabilities and shortcomings in software, computer systems, and everyday devices in order to update and improve them. These ethical, or “white-hat,” hackers are defined primarily by their innate curiosity to discover what new authorized or unauthorized hacks they can accomplish, whether as a hobby or a profession, and their work is usually some mixture of the two. The most simplified way in which this is often explained is “taking something, and making it do something else.”

DISA issues new cloud, cyber security guidance

Amber Corrin

July 27, 2015 

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The Defense Information Systems Agency on July 24 issued three new documents targeting cloud security, including two new requirements guides and a new concept of operations.

The three new documents more thoroughly define cloud security and the steps to achieving it, outlining the responsibilities of the organizations and managers increasingly capitalizing on commercial cloud offerings. The release underscores the Defense Department's growing adoption of commercial cloud offerings.

The cloud access point (CAP) functional requirements document (FRD) prescribes a barrier of protection between the Department of Defense Information Network (DoDIN) and Internet-based public cloud service offerings, directing defense agencies to implement protections for the connection points linking the two. The first DISA-established CAP is a modified NIPRNet federated gateway, according to the documents.