Indian Strategic Studies: 07/26/15

26 July 2015

Sri Lankan Civil War: What If the Tamil Tigers Weren't Labelled as 'Terrorists'?

By Ambika Kaushik

July 24, 2015

The elections in Sri Lanka next month come just ahead of a much-anticipated report on the alleged war crimes by prime ministerial candidate and former President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s government during the country’s civil war. May 2009 saw the end of the three decade-long conflict between Sri Lankan government forces and the LTTE — a pro-Tamil extremist group that allegedly inspired Al Qaeda.

The final phase of the war was particularly ghastly, with reports of atrocities carried out by both sides. However, the international community remained silent. While the failure to intervene is usually attributed to a confluence of factors, the “terrorism narrative” which dominated the conflict possibly had a hand to play in how the final stages of the war played out and the willingness of the rest of the world to look the other way.

The Final Phase of the Sri Lankan Civil War

After Uyghur Controversy, China Praises Law Enforcement Co-op With Thailand

By Shannon Tiezzi

July 24, 2015

With Yu Zhengsheng, the chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and a member of China’s all-powerful Politburo Standing Committee, in Thailand this week, Chinese media is praising China-Thailand cooperation. Interestingly, Xinhua singled out law enforcement cooperation as a shining example – and a model for China to follow in conducting “neighborhood diplomacy” with other nearby countries.

The Xinhua article emphasizes that law enforcement cooperation allows both governments to catch fugitives more easily. China is particularly interested in bringing back economic fugitives as part of its anti-corruption campaign, while Xinhua notes that China has “transferred dozens of suspects wanted by Thai police in recent years.” The two countries are particularly active in working together to combat drug-trafficking and people-smuggling. In 2012, for example, the successful manhunt for drug lord Naw Kham required joint operations involving China, Thailand, Laos, and Myanmar.

Illegal Logging Throws a Wrench Into China-Myanmar Relations

By Shannon Tiezzi

July 23, 2015

On Wednesday, a court in Myanmar sentenced 153 Chinese nationals to life in prison on charges of illegal logging in Kachin state. Two minors received 10-year sentences.

China’s Foreign Ministry was not pleased by the decision. According to a statement from spokesperson Lu Kang, ever since the Chinese nationals were arrested in Myanmar earlier this year, China has “lodged multiple representations on different levels and through various channels” about the case.

China sent diplomats to Kachin state in January to investigate the arrest of over 100 Chinese nationals for illegal logging. The loggers were arrested, along with an unknown number of Myanmar nationals, by the national army in early January.

According to Lu, Chinese authorities wanted Myanmar “to consider the actual conditions of those Chinese nationals.” China’s embassy in Myanmar argued that the defendants had been tricked into illegal logging activities.

Lu added that Myanmar should “deal with this case in a lawful, reasonable and justified manner so as to conclude the case properly and return those people to China as soon as possible.”

Watch Out, China: American B-52s Just Did a Live Bombing Run in Australia

July 22, 2015

Two B-52 bombers conducted a live bombing mission in northern Australia earlier this month.

“Two B-52 Stratofortresses assigned to the 2nd Bomb Wing, Barksdale Air Force Base, Louisiana, returned today from a 44-hour, non-stop mission to Australia,” U.S. Strategic Command said in a statement posted to its website on July 7.

During the flight, the B-52s conducted an inert conventional weapons drop on the Delamere Air Weapons Range in northern Australia, just south of Darwin where U.S. Marines are stationed on a rotating basis. The strategic bombers also performed a low-approach at RAAF Base Tindal during the flight.

The statement went on to say that the mission, which was conducted with Australian forces, “demonstrates the United States’ ability to project its flexible, long-range global strike capability and provided unique opportunities to synchronize strategic activities and capabilities with a key ally in the U.S. Pacific Command (USPACOM) area of operations.”

Turkey's 200-Year War against 'ISIS'

July 24, 2015

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/turkeys-200-year-war-against-isis-13412?page=show

In 1818, Amir Abdullah bin Saud was taken to Istanbul for execution. This was no ordinary prisoner. He was leader of a rebellion that had occupied the two holy cities of Islam for a decade and had dared to declare the Ottoman sultan, Caliph of the Faithful, an unbeliever. Among the various public humiliations before ibn Saud’s execution—since his strict Wahhabi interpretation of Islam forbade music—the Ottomans made him listen to the lute. But the cruelest punishments were reserved for the rebels’ religious leaders, some of whom were stuck into the muzzles of cannons and mortars and blown to pieces.

The rebellion clearly struck a nerve with the Ottomans. The rebels belonged to the Salafi tradition of Sunni Islam, meaning that they believed in a literal reading of the earliest Islamic texts. The mainstream Anatolian Sunnis of Turkey on the other hand, belong to the Hanafi-Maturidi tradition, which goes into textual interpretation to attain the true meaning of the Prophet’s teachings. It sprang out of an age of enlightenment, when Islamic civilization reached its zenith in mathematics, medicine, astronomy and the arts. The Ottomans saw themselves as the heirs of Islam’s natural evolution towards a higher civilization. They did not care to be called infidels.

Global Overtones of Kashmir

Bibhu Prasad Routray

23 Jul 2015

While militancy in Indian-controlled Kashmir has declined in recent years, developments in Iraq and Syria have the potential to bring new transnational overtones to the struggle, writes Bibhu Prasad Routray.

Adil Fayyaz Waida's is an unusual case in India's Jammu & Kashmir state. In 2013, this 26 year-old, with an MBA degree from Australia, travelled to Syria to join a jihadi training camp. Hailing from an affluent family, Fayyaz is the only Kashmiri to date to have joined ISIS, from a state that continues to remain a theatre of jihadist activity, centred around the goal of seeking independence from India. Why a young man would make common cause with a distant war when the conflict at home is not yet over is an important question. Fayyaz's decision to be part of an 'established' caliphate, however, can be contextualised within an externally sponsored jihad that is seeking a transnational status, after years of restricting itself to the Kashmir theatre.

In the past decade and a half, militancy in Jammu & Kashmir has subsided to a large extent. In 2001, by far the worst year of militancy in the state, 4,507 people (including civilians, security forces and militants) were killed in the state. In 2014 there were 193 deaths. Although there was a marginal rise of 10 per cent in fatalities compared to 2013, militancy remained at a comparatively low ebb, with official estimates of the numbers of active militants in the state remaining below 150. In 2014, elections to the parliament and state legislative assembly witnessed high voter turnout, whilst months before, as the worst floods in decades ravaged Srinagar and other townships in the valley, tourists flocked to the state, helping revive its economy. Many of these gains are officially attributed to the ongoing counter-insurgency operation in the state.

5 Reasons AIPAC Is Dead Wrong about the Iran Deal

July 22, 2015

Congress now has less than 60 days to review the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) negotiated by the P5+1 and Iran. Over the next few weeks, the members and their staff will need to sift through the 159 page agreement, hear testimony from administration officials, intelligence and nonproliferation experts – as well as a barrage of talking points and misrepresentations from skeptics and opponents—before casting a momentous vote on a resolution of approval or disapproval of the agreement.

The fundamental choice is whether to support this agreement—which will verifiably block all of Iran’s potential pathways to nuclear weapons for the next generation, or more—or follow the advice of pressure groups like the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), which argues that the agreement falls short of expectations and should therefore be rejected in the hope of a better deal down the line.

Suicide bombings in Baghdad kill at least 18

News from around the world.

http://scroll.in/article/742930/suicide-bombings-in-baghdad-kill-at-least-18

ISIS claims responsibility for spate of attacks around city

A pair of suicide car bombings killed at least 18 people while wounding over 40 on Tuesday in Baghdad. The attacks, claimed by terror group Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, took place in New Baghdad or al-Jadida, an area of the city known to house mostly Shiite Muslims. ISIS has also claimed responsibility for a similar attack, in the predominantly Shiite Baghdad neighborhood of al-Zafaraniya, leaving two dead and nine others injured, police said. ISIS have claimed to target members of a Shiite militia known as Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, or League of the Righteous. Car bombs also struck a security checkpoint about 55 kilometers north of Baghdad, killing four security officers and injuring 20. Mandali, a city about 136 kilometers east of Baghdad was also the site of a fatal car bombing which killed at least 5 and injured 18. It is unknown whether the attacks were linked to the ones in Baghdad.

Police clash with protesters in Turkey over Suruc bombing

At least 800 protesters gathered on Tuesday on the Asian side of Istanbul to protest against the attack on young activists in the town of Suruc near the Syrian border even as Turkish police fired tear gas and water cannons against them. The suicide bomb attack currently blamed on the Islamic State has killed 32 people, most of whom were young activists. Protesters were also seen at an earlier demonstration in the Sisli district on the European side of Istanbul as well as in the town of Nusaybin closer to the border with Syria. The police have detained dozens of protesters in Istanbul, while also injuring a 55 year old woman protester in Nusaybin.

America and Iran: Can the Nuclear Deal Lead to Rapprochement?

July 23, 2015

As the 1970s-era Soviet-American case shows, continued differences over regional security issues can halt progress toward rapprochement.

Considering how bad Iranian-American relations have been for so many years up until recently, it is remarkable that these two governments were able to reach a nuclear agreement at all. But can they now build upon this agreement to improve their relations more broadly?

There are significant obstacles to this. One, of course, is that there are influential forces at work in both countries that want to scuttle the nuclear deal altogether. But even if these do not succeed in blocking the deal, there are other important differences between the two countries over several issues, including ongoing regional conflicts, Iranian relations with Israel, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Arab states, and human rights issues.

In his July 19 Washington Post op-ed piece, Fareed Zakaria observed that China and America were able to embark on rapprochement in 1971 despite important differences between them, including ongoing Chinese support for Vietnamese communists fighting American forces in Indochina and for the spread of Marxist revolution in general. Over the next seven years, though, Chinese foreign policy changed and Mao’s successor, Deng Xiaoping, “broke with Mao’s revolutionary worldview.” Zakaria argued that while Iranian support for revolution is unlikely to change in the next few months, greater Iranian contact with the rest of the world will also “empower those Iranians who see their country’s destiny as being part of the modern world, not in opposition to it.”

Revealed: How to Wage War Against the Islamic State Online

July 22, 2015

The media frenzy surrounding the rise of the Islamic State (IS) focuses heavily on the United States’ military strategy. But since IS’ influence transcends the battlefields of Iraq and Syria, it is equally important that the United States develop a coherent strategy to counter the group’s social media reach. The twenty-four-hour news cycle and the Internet plaster IS’ horrific beheading videos everywhere. President Obama’s July 6 speech at the Pentagon on his strategy to combat IS, as one example, enjoyed only a fraction of the media coverage IS beheadings have received.

In his remarks, Obama stressed the importance of a strategy to counter IS’ ideology that goes beyond a military strategy. However, the administration still hasn’t announced concrete measures to counter IS’ social media campaign.

Why Does Putin Support the Iran Deal?

By Joshua Keating

Last week President Obama called Vladimir Putin of Russia to thank him for his cooperation on the Iran nuclear deal. Given current geopolitical tensions, the fact that the U.S. got Russia to agree to the deal is almost as remarkable as Iran signing on.

This morning the deal was endorsed by the U.N. Security Council, including Russia. In 90 days, unless Republicans in the U.S. Congress manage to torpedo the entire process, which is highly unlikely, the U.S., EU, and U.N. will begin preparations to lift sanctions once Iran is found to be in compliance. The deal includes a so-called snapbackprovision, which allows sanctions to be easily reimposed if Iran is believed to be in violation of its commitments under the agreement. Under this provision, any of the six powers that negotiated the deal can submit a complaint to a dispute resolution panel. If those concerns aren’t resolved, sanctions will automatically go back into effect in 30 days without another vote from the Security Council. This unusual feature is designed so that Iran’s allies on the Security Council—Russia and China—can’t use their veto to keep sanctions from being reimposed.

Rethinking American National Strategy for the 21st Century

July 24, 2015

Foreign policy and national security seem likely to play a significant role in the 2016 presidential election campaign. Candidates from both parties will probably try to distinguish their approaches from that of the current administration. Recent events, most notably Russian aggression in Ukraine,the rise of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), and the continued proliferation of other violent extremist groups throughout the Middle East, South Asia and much of Africa have created concern that current American responses are still inadequate. Cyber security, climate change, and the increasing power of China are also growing national preoccupations. While some criticize the Obama administration for weak and indecisive leadership, significant voices on both sides of the political spectrum argue for even greater restraint, lower resource commitments and reduced engagement in addressing at least some of these issues.

No Need to Worry about a Nuclear Iran

Selim Can Sazak Lauren R. Sukin

July 24, 2015

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/no-need-worry-about-nuclear-iran-13413?page=show

For now, Iran’s nuclear program appears to be curbed—at least in the sense that negotiators in Vienna have finally announced a deal. (Although even the most optimistic must bat an eye when they remember that the U.S. Senate still has to approve the terms.) Meanwhile, the most pessimistic are still worried: Can the deal actually prevent Iran from acquiring a bomb? And how would the power balance in the Gulf be upended if it it did not?

The prospect of a resurging Iran—nuclear or otherwise—is dangerous, but not for the reasons often cited. For example, the fears that a nuclear Iran would result in a Middle Eastern proliferation cascade are exaggerated. There are only two countries even somewhat likely to respond to a nuclear Iran in kind: Israel, which already has a nuclear capability, and Saudi Arabia, which could potentially have plans to build—or buy—its own weapons. (The most-likely course is for Saudi Arabia to purchase a readymade bomb from Pakistan, or possibly North Korea.)

This Gun for Hire: 5 Russian Weapons of War for Sale

July 24, 2015

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/gun-hire-5-russian-weapons-war-sale-13411?page=show

American arms reach a wide range of customers across the globe. However, there are some countries the United States will not sell weapons to for a variety of political and strategic concerns.

For these nations, Russia offers a reliable alternative to U.S. products. Although many Russian arms are of a lower caliber than American systems, Russia often sells more weapons for less money than Washington. Purchasing Russian weapons also provides a cheaper alternative for developing powers or smaller states who might otherwise be forced to establish their own domestic arms industries.

Moreover, many of Russia’s arms customers do not need weapons capable of knocking out advanced American systems. Countries like Ukraine and Georgia along with a range of non-state actors across Asia and the Middle East have aging or depleted arsenals. Their opponents need only acquire weapons that are better—not the best.

China is an obvious customer for many Russian weapons. Other rising powers like India, Brazil, Indonesia, and Iran continue to turn to Moscow to fill their arsenals. Even Western-aligned states like Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and South Korea have considered Russian arms in the past. Of course, the rapid proliferation of Russian weapons can be problematic, as many find their way into the hands of militant non-state actors and rogue regimes.

America and Iran: Can the Nuclear Deal Lead to Rapprochement?

July 23, 2015

Considering how bad Iranian-American relations have been for so many years up until recently, it is remarkable that these two governments were able to reach a nuclear agreement at all. But can they now build upon this agreement to improve their relations more broadly?

There are significant obstacles to this. One, of course, is that there are influential forces at work in both countries that want to scuttle the nuclear deal altogether. But even if these do not succeed in blocking the deal, there are other important differences between the two countries over several issues, including ongoing regional conflicts, Iranian relations with Israel, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Arab states, and human rights issues.

In his July 19 Washington Post op-ed piece, Fareed Zakaria observed that China and America were able to embark on rapprochement in 1971 despite important differences between them, including ongoing Chinese support for Vietnamese communists fighting American forces in Indochina and for the spread of Marxist revolution in general. Over the next seven years, though, Chinese foreign policy changed and Mao’s successor, Deng Xiaoping, “broke with Mao’s revolutionary worldview.” Zakaria argued that while Iranian support for revolution is unlikely to change in the next few months, greater Iranian contact with the rest of the world will also “empower those Iranians who see their country’s destiny as being part of the modern world, not in opposition to it.”

Confirmed: US Navy Launches Underwater Drone From Sub

By Franz-Stefan Gady

July 24, 2015

http://thediplomat.com/2015/07/confirmed-us-navy-launches-underwater-drone-from-sub/

The Virginia-class nuclear-powered fast attack submarine USS North Dakota (SSN-784) has launched and recovered an underwater drone for the first time, according to AP.

This week, the USS North Dakota returned to the United States after a nearly two-month deployment to the Mediterranean Sea. The submarine was specifically tasked with testing the launch and recovery of an unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV) while submerged.

“This was something they thought we could go do. We went out, and we proved that,” the sub’s commanding officer, Captain Douglas Gordon told AP.

Gordon declined to provide additional details on the mission except that the underwater drone was launched from a dry deck shelter – a removable module that can be attached to a submarine – which makes entering and exiting a sub easier when the boat is submerged.

Donald Trump’s Problem With the US-Korea Alliance

July 23, 2015

http://thediplomat.com/2015/07/donald-trumps-problem-with-the-us-korea-alliance/

U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump appears to have taken aim at South Korea over its heavy reliance on the American military for its defense. While campaigning in South Carolina on Tuesday, the bombastic Republican contender seemed to suggest that South Korea, as a wealthy country in its own right, doesn’t deserve U.S. protection, reported Yonhap News.

Trump, who has repeatedly made headlines with provocative comments in recent weeks, had been rallying against Washington’s defense commitment to Saudi Arabia when he mentioned South Korea, only to be cut off by a member of the audience. While Trump did not expand on his opinion of South Korea, he has previously blasted the defense pact it shares with the United States, which sees some 28,500 American soldiers stationed in the country.

“How long will we go on defending South Korea from North Korea without payment?” Trump complains in a video uploaded on his YouTube channel in 2013.

“When will they start to pay us?” he adds a little later.

Iceland’s Crash and Stunning Recovery: Lessons for Greece?

July 22, 2015

In Independent People, the best-known work of Iceland’s Nobel Prize-winning writer Halldór Laxness, the protagonist, Bjartur of Summerhouses, a hardscrabble sheep farmer, embodies self-reliance, thrift, and attachment to the land and to nature. Bjartur’s disdain for the wealthy and powerful doubtless reflects Laxness’s own antipathy toward the materialism and power hierarchies produced by capitalism.

In reality, during the inflation-marked years following Iceland’s independence in 1944 (the island had been ruled by Norway and then Denmark), Icelanders spent money in the moment, fearing that to defer spending to later would be to pay more. Still, until the late 1990s, Iceland was a socialist economy; the state’s role was extensive, and the commitment to social welfare through publicly financed programs was robust.

The economy’s mainstays were sheep farming (family-run farms still dot this bucolic island of 360,000 people, and free-roaming sheep are ubiquitous in the countryside), fishing, tourism, and the American military base at Keflavik, which at its height employed several thousand Icelanders. Apart from aluminum smelting, a bauxite-based energy-intensive process made economical by Iceland’s abundant thermal power, there was no industry to speak of. So it was not until the 1990s when an economic revolution got underway. The catalyst was Davíð Oddsson, leader of the rightist Independence Party, who became prime minister in 1991 and served until 2004, longer than anyone had before, or has since. Oddsson imbibed the free-market theories of Friedrich Hayek and Milton Friedman, whose 1984 lecture at the University of Iceland he attended, and was a devotee of Margaret Thatcher’s and Ronald Reagan’s economic policies.

Russia's Stealthy New Nuclear Bomber Is in Big Trouble

July 21, 2015

Russia is delaying production of its new fifth-generation PAK DA strategic bomber, a senior Russian defense official has announced.

Speaking at the Samara-based Kuznetsov Plant of the United Engine Corporation, a Russian defense company, Russian Deputy Defense Minister Yuri Borisov told reporters that production of the PAK DA has been delayed in order to resume producing Tupolev Tu-160M2 bomber.

“According to the plans, serial production of the [Tu-160] aircraft new version [the Tu-160M2] is to be implemented starting from 2023,” Borisov said.

When asked whether this would shift the timeframe of the PAK DA strategic bomber, Borisov confirmed that it would. “The PAK DA project will be somewhat shifted beyond [2023, when it is currently to begin entering service], otherwise there is no sense in it,” Borisov said.

As The National Interest previously noted, back in May Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that Russia had decided to resume production of the Soviet-era Tu-160 nuclear bomber, which NATO refers to as Blackjack.

How to Stop the North Korea Nightmare Dead in Its Tracks

Rebecca M. Miller

July 21, 2015

North Korea is making headlines again. And this time, Seth Rogen and James Franco’s The Interview has nothing to do with it.

Recent news reports have emerged of a North Korean defector who alleges that Kim Jong-un tested chemical and biological weapons on his own people. The defector, whom we know only as “Mr. Lee,” says he has the evidence on a storage device that he will present to the European Parliament in the next few weeks. “Mr. Lee” is not the first to come forward in an attempt to expose the Kim regime’s unethical weapons testing on humans. Over the years, there have been several accounts of Kim’s testing on the disabled, including children.

Does this sound familiar? Inhumane testing of chemical and biological weapons on the innocent and disabled? It should. It’s what Adolf Hitler did during World War II. If this seems like a radical assertion, well, it’s not. During WWII, many (including some in the United States) did not believe—and really could not fathom, as it was so atrocious and then unprecedented—that Hitler was committing such heinous and gruesome crimes in the concentration camps. How many more defectors are going to need to come forward before we take these allegations seriously, and do something to intervene? After all, defectors like “Mr. Lee” are not pleading with Beijing to come help them out, they are making a run for the EU to plead for help.

Russia Opens Its Doors... To Asia

Salvatore Babones

July 22, 2015

http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/russia-opens-its-doors-asia-13398?page=show

On July 13, Russia's President Vladimir Putin signed a law to establish a "free port" in Vladivostok, Russia's Pacific gateway. The free port opens for business on January 1, 2016. It will be a customs-free zone with an extremely low corporate income tax rate of just 5 percent.

Vladivostok is a city of 600,000 people that has often been called "the San Francisco of the East”—though not often by people who have actually been there. Famous as a bastion of conservatism, in the Russian revolution it was the last major city to fall into communist hands.

In 2003, the city fathers actually rebuilt a monument to Tsar Nicholas II that had been destroyed in 1930.

Still, the city has San Francisco's steep hills, San Francisco's foggy weather, and even some of San Francisco's old world charm. And now San Franciscans will have the opportunity to go see it for themselves. The open port initiative includes an 8-day visa on arrival. There is no word yet on what countries will be included, but if the Russian government is at all serious about the initiative it will include Americans.

Congress' Dangerous New Monetary Policy Rule

July 23, 2015

Contrary to its well established reputation, monetary policy has been anything but dull of late. The Federal Reserve has simultaneously been blamed for causing the financial crisis, and for being too interventionist to correct its mistakes. Some in Congress aim to curtail the excitement by requiring the Federal Reserve to adhere to a formula that will set the Fed’s key policy rate based on certain economic data points—a “policy rule.”

Legitimate reasons and concerns underlie the push toward an explicit rule for monetary policy. Extraordinary intervention during the financial crisis caused many to question the boundaries of the Fed’s emergency powers. More positively, it seems reasonable to assume that monetary policy might function and transmit to the economy more efficiently if the Fed is required to follow a predictable rule.

The proposed legislation, known as theFederal Reserve Accountability and Transparency Act (FRAT), has prominent backing and support. In testimony before a Congressional committee, John Taylor—arguably the godfather of the monetary policy rule—laid out his support for a systematic rule to guide Federal Reserve decision making.

The Last European: Romanian Driver Navigates the Soul of the EU

By Juan Moreno

The hero of this story looks older than his 34 years. He has powerful upper arms, a gentle demeanor -- and he knows what many people think when they hear "Romania."

There are countries in Europe with a bad reputation, there are those with a very bad reputation and then there is Romania. It's a country with anti-corruption department heads forced to step down amid accusations of corruption, and a prime minister who stands accused of money laundering. It ranks lowest for toothpaste consumption in the European Union, and high for alcohol consumption. Our man knows all about these things, because he is well traveled in Europe. In political-speak, one could say that he is always on the go, driving the deepening of the European Union.

In 1992, Romania still had 23 million inhabitants. Today there are 4 million fewer. Those who emigrated profit from the fact that Europe has an undeclared division of labor that goes something like this: Wherever uneducated, rather than educated, workers are needed, employers look for Romanians. Even the Germans.

If it weren't for Romanians, slaughterhouse owners would be chest-deep in pig halves. Without them, real estate developers could forget about Germany's glorious construction boom. The same goes for asparagus and potato harvests. In their view, anything is better than staying in Romania. As a result, leaving home is about the most Romanian thing a person can do -- and that's not difficult at all.

3 Reasons the Philippines Will Suffer Because of Its South China Sea Case Against China

By Dingding Chen

July 23, 2015

http://thediplomat.com/2015/07/3-reasons-the-philippines-will-suffer-because-of-its-south-china-sea-case-against-china/

The arbitration case against China launched by the Philippines has attracted a lot of global media attention and global public opinion seems to support the Philippines’ case. However, a closer analysis reveals that the Philippines might in the end suffer from this arbitration case. How so? There are three main reasons for this.

First, there is no guarantee that the Philippines is going to win the arbitration case, even though media reports might suggest that it will. Actually, the Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague is being very careful now as it tries to determine whether it has the necessary jurisdiction in the first place. This is not good news for the Philippines. Part of the reason is that the Court understands the huge implications of its decision for not only China, but also for the international law of the sea in general.

Indonesia’s Asian Fulcrum Idea

By Vibhanshu Shekhar

July 24, 2015

http://thediplomat.com/2015/07/indonesias-asian-fulcrum-idea/

Recently, Rizal Sukma, a noted Indonesian expert and foreign policy advisor to the current government led by President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, proposed the idea of an Asian Fulcrum of Four. According to Rizal, four Asian powers – China, India, Indonesia and Japan – would seek to build and shape a pan Indo-Pacific (or Pacindo).

This is very similar to the idea of an Asian coalition of five put forth fifteen years ago by Indonesia’s then-president, Abdurrahman Wahid. Wahid had suggested a coalition comprised of China, India, Indonesia, Japan and Singapore. The group would not be a security pact, but an arrangement to facilitate political, economic and cultural cooperation that would allow three big countries to rise with the assistance of Japan and Singapore.

Rizal’s idea of Asia’s own G-4 rests on five assumptions. First, it is predicated on the idea of Asian solidarity and an Asian Century that may have received new momentum from the recently concluded Afro-Asian conference in Indonesia in April 2015. Leaders of nearly 100 countries from Asia and Africa gathered in Indonesia to celebrate seven decades of Afro-Asian solidarity.

Kyrgyz Weigh in on Government’s Decision to Scrap US Treaty

By Catherine Putz

July 24, 2015

Earlier this week, Kyrgyzstan denounced a cooperation treaty with the United States in fury over the U.S. State Department’s choice of Azimjan Askarov as a recipient for the 2014 Human Rights Defender Award. While I covered the details of the treaty that is being denounced in a previous post, 24.kg, an independent Kyrgyz news site, recently asked several Kyrgyz experts for their views on the diplomatic row. Their responses provide a glimpse into the domestic reaction to – and perhaps the politics surrounding – the Kyrgyz decision to junk a treaty almost as old as the state itself.

Zamira Sydykova, who served as the Kyrgyz Ambassador to the United States from 2005 to 2010, is fairly cutting with her responses. “Of course,” she says, “this is not an independent decision of the Prime Minister Temir Sariev. Decision was preceded by consultation with Russia. In addition, we do hereby worse for ourselves, because there won’t be any consequences for the other side, the US.”

Sydykova, it should be noted, was Ambassador under Kyrgyzstan’s previous president–Kurmanbek Bakiyev–who was ousted in the 2010 Kyrgyz revolution. He’d come into power after the first, in 2005. His ouster was seen by many as a victory for Russia. In 2009 he promised to close the U.S. airbase at Manas, accepted Russian aid, and then renegotiated the Manas lease with the United States anyway.

What the Fighter of the Future Will Look Like

BY PATRICK TUCKER

JULY 13, 2015

New technologies will replace a number of jobs in the next 15 years, but one occupation that’s unlikely to go away is the most dangerous one in the world—soldier. The Pentagon spends billions of dollars to make sure front-line troops are better armed and trained than any adversary they come across. But as commercial technology advances faster than the military can keep up, securing that edge is becoming an increasingly difficult proposition.

Explained: Why Walker and Bush are BOTH Right on Iran

July 21, 2015

Two of the Republican candidates for president, Gov. Scott Walker and Gov. Jeb Bush, are in an argument over how the United States can best get out of the Obama nuclear agreement. This argument has now become the subject of press comment too: for example, by Steve Hayes in an article entitled “Bush-Walker Dispute Catches Fire Over Iran Nuclear Deal” in The Weekly Standard, and by CFR’s own Max Boot in a Commentary blog post entitled “Can the Iran Deal be Reversed on Day One?”

In my view the argument is not much ado about nothing, because both men are making strong and valid observations. They are both right–just right about different aspects of the problem opponents of the Iran deal face.

The argument began when Gov. Walker said “We need to terminate the bad deal with Iran on the very first day in office.” Bush then commented that “At 12:01 on January, whatever it is, 19th [2017], I will not probably have a confirmed secretary of state; I will not have a confirmed national security team in place; I will not have consulted with our allies. I will not have had the intelligence briefings to have made a decision. If you’re running for president, I think it’s important to be mature and thoughtful about this.”

Both men have expanded on their views. Gov. Bush stated his opinion this way to Hayes:

Scott Walker Is Right on Iran

Michael Doran Matthew Kroenig

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/scott-walker-right-iran-13386?page=show

A ruckus has erupted between Republican presidential candidates over Iran. In a speech announcing his candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination on July 13, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker declared that he would “terminate the bad deal with Iran on the very first day in office."

Former Florida Governor and fellow presidential candidate Jeb Bush also declared his opposition to the Iran deal, saying “this isn’t diplomacy—its appeasement.” At a rally days later, however, Bush said that he would not call for the deal’s repeal on day one, explaining: “I will not have a confirmed secretary of state; I will not have a confirmed national security team in place; I will not have consulted with our allies. I will not have had the intelligence briefings to have made a decision…It’s important to be mature and thoughtful about this.”

Some pundits have supported Bush’s caution and disparaged Walker’s statement as “lacking nuance” but in reality, Walker’s position is correct. Why?

(Full disclosure: both of us have briefed Walker.)

Iceland’s Crash and Stunning Recovery: Lessons for Greece?

July 22, 2015

In Independent People, the best-known work of Iceland’s Nobel Prize-winning writer Halldór Laxness, the protagonist, Bjartur of Summerhouses, a hardscrabble sheep farmer, embodies self-reliance, thrift, and attachment to the land and to nature. Bjartur’s disdain for the wealthy and powerful doubtless reflects Laxness’s own antipathy toward the materialism and power hierarchies produced by capitalism.

In reality, during the inflation-marked years following Iceland’s independence in 1944 (the island had been ruled by Norway and then Denmark), Icelanders spent money in the moment, fearing that to defer spending to later would be to pay more. Still, until the late 1990s, Iceland was a socialist economy; the state’s role was extensive, and the commitment to social welfare through publicly financed programs was robust.

FAX MACHINE RADICALIZATION

July 23, 2015

http://warontherocks.com/2015/07/fax-machine-radicalization/

Washington, D.C. – Last week, a fax machine in London buzzed with activity. Within five minutes, two pages (three, counting the cover page) were produced. The 1,053-word diatribe was a declaration of war from a little-known son of a Saudi billionaire named Osama Bin Laden. Printed on crisp, off-white copy paper, it stated, “The ruling to kill the Americans and their allies ― civilians and military ― is an individual duty for every Muslim who can do it in any country in which it is possible to do it.”

In Washington, government officials, terrorism experts, and congressional leaders all agreed: This was a game changer.

Terrorist propaganda is not new, but the way in which it is transmitted has raised concerns about the potential radicalization fax machines could provide. “In the old days, a terrorist had to speak their message using only their voice, or if they were really innovative, write it on paper,” said Russell Blair, a senior fellow at the Center for Technology and Terror. “The intelligence community has gotten very good at following paper production, leading to important arrests of terrorists leaders but this fax machine thing, it’s scary how little we know.”

Kerry’s next challenge

By Katrina vanden Heuvel
July 21 2015

The nuclear agreement with Iran provides ample proof of Secretary of State John F. Kerry’s remarkable commitment and skill in waging diplomacy. In an era when the Pentagon dominates our foreign policy and military options are too often trotted out as first responses, he has resuscitated the United States’ power to lead, pressure and negotiate, a capacity too often denigrated as “soft power.”

No good deed goes unpunished. His reward for this is not only a pitched battle at home with hawks in both parties intent on torpedoing the Iran deal, but also what will be an even fiercer struggle with higher stakes: fending off those intent on escalating a face-off with Russia over Ukraine into a new Cold War. Once more, Kerry must preserve our real security interests from those recklessly brandishing America’s military prowess.

Editor and publisher of the Nation magazine, vanden Heuvel writes a weekly column for The Post.

Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)