The politics of naming - Calling a region South Asia will not lessen India's importance

Swapan Dasgupta

May 22 , 2015

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It was an innocent question by a gentleman from Norwich that finally set the cat among the pigeons. The setting was delightfully innocuous: a panel discussion at the formal opening of the South Asia Institute of the School of Oriental and African Studies, London. The discussion had been preceded by a Tagore song by a young lecturer, a few speeches on SOAS and the new institute by its director and his colleagues and a soulful Punjabi song lamenting the tragedy of Partition (which immediately prompted a retort by Pakistan's United Nations permanent representative that her country was proud of its nationhood).

The question was short and snappy. The Narendra Modi government has increased India's international profile and enhanced its global standing. How, asked the Norwich man, is this being viewed in the neighbouring countries?

For the previous 20 minutes, the discussion had centred on a common South Asian identity that transcended borders and conflict zones and how initiatives, such as the one in SOAS, was contributing to it. Now, the fissures began to show. The Pakistani diplomat lamented that the hand of friendship extended by the Pakistan prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, hadn't been met by Modi's warm embrace. "A big country," she suggested "must have a big heart." Pakistan, she indicated, was excited by the emerging Asian century which, to her, was being led by China and the Southeast Asian nations. And yes, India and Pakistan would find a place in that brave new world.

Security in West Asia: A new era

Talmiz Ahmad

May 22, 2015

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Four years ago, powerful winds of change battered the autocracies of the Arab world, knocking from their pedestals the rulers of Tunisia and Egypt and threatening to transform the island-kingdom of Bahrain into a constitutional monarchy. Saudi Arabia, sensing an existential threat, abandoned its traditional quiescent, moderate and accommodative stance in foreign affairs and shaped a robust and militant anti-Iran approach, mobilising support on the plea that Shia aggrandisement threatened Sunni interests.

Saudi demonisation of Iran went awry when the US, in late 2013, decided to actively engage with Iran on the nuclear issue, and over the next 18 months made remarkable progress in the negotiations that the P5+1 powers had with the Islamic republic. Saudi Arabia and some other Gulf Cooperation Council countries distanced themselves from the US, conveying deep dissatisfaction at this “betrayal”. The principal concern of the GCC was that the US’ engagement with Iran would go beyond nuclear matters and involve a “grand bargain” in which Iran would obtain a pre-eminent position in regional affairs. These concerns peaked with the announcement of the “framework agreement” with Iran at Lausanne, on April 2, 2015. On this day, US President Barack Obama invited the leaders of the GCC for a summit meeting in Washington and Camp David on May 14-15.

Rich land, poor people: We need a comprehensive national strategy to resolve insurgencies

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May 22, 2015,  

Vijay Kumar Ahluwalia

The recent spike in violence by insurgents in the Bastar and north-eastern regions is a cause of grave concern. It is historically proven that discontented people resort to violence against the governing system. Even today, while the world has over a hundred unconventional, asymmetric and revolutionary internal armed conflicts, each one of them is distinctly unique. A large number of such conflicts are predominant in the underdeveloped and developing regions of the world on account of poor governance and socio-economic fault lines.

Commencing with the Naga insurgency in the mid 50s, India has witnessed a number of bloody insurgencies spread over a number of states. Apart from Mizoram and Punjab, we have not been able to resolve a single one. This is certainly worrisome.

Moreover, India already faces challenges on two strategic fronts due to unresolved boundary disputes with Pakistan and China. In such a scenario, internal security threats emanating from insurgencies, terrorism and conflicts due to religious and regional intolerance could pose a third active front if not addressed urgently. Our response to these armed conflicts has fundamentally been a blend of security and developmental initiatives, along with track two diplomacy. Success though, has come only in limited measure.

Such conflicts take a heavy toll on human security and the country’s growth story. Given India’s comprehensive national power, it is impossible for any insurgency to really succeed. Therefore, the moot question is, “How long will it take us to resolve our insurgencies?”

Given the track record of successive governments in power, we have really not addressed these conflicts with seriousness. The Naxalite movement for instance, has continued to sustain itself as a bloody revolution over the past five decades.

Dhanush 155mm Artillery Gun: A “Make in India” Marvel

By Danvir Singh

21 May , 2015

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Dhanush as an artillery system has proved to be one of the best amongst its class. A 45 Calibre towed gun system capable of targeting at long ranges incorporating autonomous laying features and having one of the most sophisticated suites of electronic and computing systems in the world.

A leading Indian daily “The Times of India” quoted the defence minister, Mr Manohar Parrikar when he addressed the parliamentary consultative committee on defence on April 21, that the 155mm/45-calibre Dhanush howitzers had “successfully met all technical parameters” during the winter and summer trials at Sikkim and Pokhran. He also stated that Dhanush incorporates “many improved features” over the Army’s existing artillery guns.

This revelation has created a buzz amongst the arms manufacturers and rightly so since Dhanush as an artillery system has proved to be one of the best amongst its class. A 45 Calibre towed gun system capable of targeting at long ranges incorporating autonomous laying features and having one of the most sophisticated suites of electronic and computing systems in the world.

The unreasonable fear of a coup

S.K. Sinha

May 20, 2015

http://www.asianage.com/columnists/unreasonable-fear-coup-379

When Jawaharlal Nehru died there was an intelligence red alert of the possibility of a military coup. An artillery brigade had been moved from Ambala to Delhi for annual field firing at the Tughlakabad range, and this coincided with the death of Nehru. 

Though a military coup or a successful military invasion may result in a soldier capturing political power, there is a difference between the two. The former is directed against a government to which one owes loyalty and the latter against a government to which one does not. History abounds with examples of both. In the modern age military coups have been taking place while in the earlier days the other was more common.

Early examples of military coups are those of Julius Caesar, Oliver Cromwell and Napoleon Bonaparte. In modern times, several military coups have taken place, particularly in countries liberated from colonial rule in Asia and Africa. Modern India has a shining military coup-free record. There have been only two instances, both very long ago. The great Mauryan Empire founded by Chandragupta Maurya, comprising present-day India, Pakistan and Afghanistan, had shrunk considerably in 185 BC. The latter Greeks under Demetrius had come to the border, threatening invasion. Brihadratha, the last Mauryan ruler, was an imbecile. His commander-in-chief, Pushyamitra Sunga, assassinated him and became the ruler. The other instance was that of Hyder Ali, a successful military leader, removing the Wadiyar ruler of Mysore. Hyder Ali’s son Tipu Sultan succeeded him on his death.

What our textbooks don't tell us: Why the Rajputs failed miserably in battle for centuries

Girish Shahane 

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They were defeated by Ghazni, Ghuri, Khilji, Babur, Akbar, the Marathas and the British.

The home minister, Rajnath Singh, wishes our school textbooks told us more about the Rajput king Rana Pratap, and less about the Mughal emperor Akbar. I, on the other hand, wish they explained why Rajputs fared so miserably on the battlefield.

A thousand years ago, Rajput kings ruled much of North India. Then they lost to Ghazni, lost to Ghuri, lost to Khilji, lost to Babur, lost to Akbar, lost to the Marathas, and keeled over before the British. The Marathas and Brits hardly count since the Rajputs were a spent force by the time Akbar was done with them. Having been confined to an arid part of the subcontinent by the early Sultans, they were reduced to vassals by the Mughals.

Decade of war, billions in U.S. aid fail to defeat Taliban

 Jim Michaels

May 19, 2015 

KABUL — More than a decade of war and billions in U.S. funds to build up an Afghan military force have failed to defeat a Taliban insurgency that remains a threat across the country, according to interviews with U.S., NATO and Afghan military leaders.

Following the end of the U.S. military's combat mission last year, the Islamic radical insurgents have overrun dozens of checkpoints throughout the country and threatened entire districts. The army has rushed forces to take back terrain, but it doesn't have enough troops to defend every place under assault.

"The enemy is fighting in almost every province," said Gen. Sher Mohammad Karimi, the Afghan army chief of staff.

Karimi said the Taliban is unable to mass enough forces to take over key cities or threaten the central government here. "In some places they win for an hour and lose in the next hour," he said.

Barring a political settlement between the warring camps, Karimi's assessment points to unending fighting with neither side gaining the upper hand — so long as the United States and its allies continue to spend billions a year to prop up the Afghan forces.

Why do allies sometimes pretend to believe one another’s lies? The U.S.-Pakistani Relationship

Elizabeth Cobbs Hoffman

May 20, 2015

Why the U.S. chooses to believe Pakistan, despite doubts

Why do allies sometimes pretend to believe one another’s lies? There are good reasons and bad, as new evidence about the U.S. relationship with Pakistan demonstrates.

Throughout its “war on terrorism,” the United States has had to rely on Pakistan. Though Washington may occasionally have believed its trust was abused, the Pentagon’s need for overflight rights or landing bases, crucial for U.S. troops in Afghanistan and throughout the Middle East, trumped diplomatic niceties.

The American people may wonder if this trumped self-respect as well. Seasoned investigative reporter Seymour Hersh recently wrote about Pakistan’s possibly problematic role in the U.S. capture of Osama bin Laden for the London Review of Books. Hersh, who broke both the My Lai massacre story during the Vietnam War and the Abu Ghraib torture story during the war in Iraq, alleges that Islamabad kept bin Laden under lock and key in Abbottabad for six years — even as U.S. intelligence urgently tried to track him down. Combing treacherous mountains and ravines for the world’s most wanted man, Washington may have risked and lost lives unnecessarily.

Industry 4.0 and Energy 4.0 for Southeast Asia

By Yanfei Li

May 21, 2015

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With a smart approach to energy and industry, the region has the opportunity to leapfrog ahead.

As the leading industrialized economies move to intelligent manufacturing – or industry 4.0 – it will be interesting to see whether the developing economies of Southeast Asia can take the opportunity to leapfrog ahead with economic development. Industry 4.0 goes hand-in-hand with smart production and energy use. The latter may be referred to as Energy 4.0, with the pre-oil era, the oil era, and the new and renewable energy era, as Energy 1.0, 2.0, and 3.0, respectively. This article proposes a vision to invite further discussions in the region’s policy-making and think-tank communities. The point is that Industry 4.0 and Energy 4.0 should be promoted and developed in juxtaposition with conventional industrialization and conventional energy infrastructure systems in the region.

India’s Missed Iran Opportunity

By Kabir Taneja

May 21, 2015

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The Iranian port of Chabahar remains an elusive dream of Indian strategic policy.

On a recent trip to Tehran, India’s Minister for Road Transport, Highways and Shipping, Nitin Gadkari inked a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with his Iranian counterpart for the development of Chabahar port. The port, situated in southeastern Iran, is seen by India as a gateway to both Afghanistan and Central Asiaand a possible counter-balance to Gwadar port in Pakistan, which is now operated entirely by China.

“With the signing of this MoU, Indian and Iranian commercial entities would now be in a position to commence negotiations towards finalization of a commercial contract under which Indian firms will lease two existing berths at the Port and operationalize them as container and multi-purpose cargo terminals,” read a statement released by the Indian Ministry of External Affairs.

More Chinese Citizens Injured in Spillover From Myanmar Conflict

By Shannon Tiezzi

May 21, 2015

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Once again, Chinese citizens are caught in the crossfire of Myanmar’s ethnic tensions.

On May 14, several Chinese citizens were injured during a Myanmar government shelling operation against armed ethnic rebels. Radio Free Asia, citing local sources, reports that eight people in the township of Nansan were injured in the blasts. Witness reported five separate explosions in a half-hour period on the evening of May 14. One resident told RFA the incident wasn’t an isolated occurrence: “There have been bombs exploding a lot in recent days, and a lot of people are terrified.” Residents also reported gunfire from the fighting hitting buildings in their town.

The May 14 incident came just over two months after Myanmar government jets accidentally bombed the Chinese side of the border, killing five Chinese citizens and injuring eight. In response, China stepped up air patrols of the border region and a top military officialwarned that the “Chinese military will take resolute measures to protect the safety of Chinese people and their assets.”

SHANGRI-LA WON’T BE A FAIRYLAND FOR BEIJING

Zack Cooper and Mira Rapp-Hooper

May 21, 2015

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As summer arrives in Washington, the temperature is rising and storm clouds are on the horizon. Beijing’s island building in the South China Sea has been the subject of mounting international attention, provoking sharp objections from China’s neighbors and the United States. This tension is likely to come to a head at next week’s Shangri-La Dialogue, an annual security forum that is attended by many of the region’s top defense leaders. Once summer is under way, there are ten maritime security-related developments to watch closely. Eight of these developments are likely to exacerbate tensions between Beijing and Washington. Just two have the potential to defuse them.

Chinese Military Declares the Internet an Ideological ‘Battleground’

By Shannon Tiezzi

May 21, 2015

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China’s military newspaper, the People’s Liberation Army Daily, warned on Wednesday that China must “resolutely protect ideological and political security on the invisible battleground of cyberspace.” The call to arms against “Western hostile forces” on the Internet comes amidst a broader push for tighter Internet controls, including experiments with offensive cyber capabilities against websites that have been banned in China.

The piece begins by repeating a claim China has made often: that Internet or cyber sovereignty is a manifestation of national sovereignty. Over the past year, China has called attention to this concept in media articles and official speeches, seeking to win international recognition of its conceptualization of how the internet should be governed. The PLA Daily piece makes it clear that China’s “cyber territory” must be defended as vigorously as physical territory. The article warned that if China doesn’t occupy and defend its “cyber territory,” then nameless “hostile forces” will use it as a “bridgehead” to attack China.

America's 'China Consensus' Implodes

Robert A. Manning

May 21, 2015

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/americas-china-consensus-implodes-12938?page=show

With China challenging the U.S.-led regional framework in Asia, Americans are being forced to reconsider long-standing assumptions.

In recent weeks a tsunami of papers, reports and articles have surfaced calling for a rethinking of U.S. policy toward China. They veer in all policy directions from reconciling differences and forming an Asia-Pacific community, to containment and confrontation. But they all reflect a troubling epiphany that has seized attention from policy-watchers: core assumptions that have guided a bipartisan China policy for eight presidencies, from Nixon to Obama are unraveling. One prominent China scholar has even boldly pronounced that we are witnessing is “the beginning of the end of the Chinese Communist Party.”

Though the Nixon opening was a strategic counter to the USSR, as China reformed and modernized its economy post-1979, U.S. policy has assumed that as a Chinese middle class grew, political reform, if not democratization would follow. This has been the case across Asia over the past three decades—in the Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan, Mongolia, Thailand and Indonesia. It may eventually occur—China is, by several orders of magnitude larger than other Asian democratized states with a 3,000-year-old culture—but in its own way and on its own timeline. For now, the Communist Party has tightened political control.

China's Emerging Vision for World Order

Timothy R. Heath

May 21, 2015

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/chinas-emerging-vision-world-order-12934?page=show

China’s mulling of the risks and benefits of global leadership reveals its judgment that it cannot allow its chief competitor to protect its interests.

During World War I, Britain and France suffered such appalling casualties that the ability to prosecute the fight against the Axis powers seemed at risk. Desperate for the manpower to stay in the war, the Allies asked China, among other countries, for help. Although consumed by its own debilitating woes, a China frustrated by years of foreign occupation saw an opportunity to liberate the Shandong Peninsula in eastern China from German colonizers. In 1917, China declared war on Germany and offered its one formidable asset—human labor—to serve the Allied cause. More than 175,000 Chinese laborers (among them a young Deng Xiaoping) served in the Chinese Labor Corps throughout the Western front and other theaters. The laborers loaded ships, dug trenches, repaired bridges, manufactured munitions and did many other back-breaking jobs. More than 10,000 men died in service, and once the war ended, the laborers were unceremoniously packed up and sent home.

How McMahon Drew His Line, and Why China Wants It Changed

BY PRADIP PHANJOUBAM 

20/05/2015

http://thewire.in/2015/05/20/how-mcmahon-drew-his-line-and-why-china-wants-it-changed/

Prime Minister, Narendra Modi was virtually silent on the vexed border issue during his just concluded visit to China, belying the expectations of many in Arunachal Pradesh. While there were 24 bilateral agreements signed, a majority of them business related, both the countries for the moment seem to think the border issue can wait. Hence, in the eastern sector, India will continue to consider the McMahon Line as its undisputed boundary, and China will continue to treat the line as illegal. Arunachal domiciles intending to travel to China will also have to continue be content with stapled visas. 

Revealed: The Islamic State's Two Most Powerful Weapons

Kumar Ramakrishna

May 20, 2015 

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The ominous shadow of the notorious Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) looms over Southeast Asia and Australia, judging from the scores of recent arrests throughout the region.

In order to neutralize ISIS, it is important to understand what we are confronting. Synthesizing various analyses of the entity appears to provide the following composite picture: ISIS seeks to create a geographically demarcated Islamic political entity that is potentially expansionist. The leadership of the organization is hierarchical and comprises a curious mix of hardline Islamic fundamentalists combined with genuine strategic and operational nous provided by disaffected and radicalized former Baathists of Saddam Hussein’s decimated military.

The core fundamentalist theology of ISIS emphasizes a deity that is punitive, keen on preserving religious purity above else. Consequently outsiders—Muslims who disagree with them; Shia, Christians and other minority groups and their religious symbols—can be disposed of as they are regarded as filth to be cleansed, not parties to a negotiable dispute.

Is Iraq's Military Hopelessly Incompetent?

Daniel R. DePetris

May 21, 2015 

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/iraqs-military-hopelessly-incompetent-12936?page=show

What ISIL’s capture of Ramadi tells us about the Iraqi Security Forces.

In the see-saw, roller-coaster battle for the future of Iraq, the recapture of Tikrit from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) on April 2 was the Iraqi Government’s most dramatic accomplishment throughout the coalition’s nine-month campaign against the extremist organization. Tikrit, universally known as former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein’s hometown, was a city under the control and administration of ISIL ever since the group made its initial push across northern Iraq in June and July 2014. But it also happens to be a city that lies along the main route to Mosul, ISIL’s major stronghold in Iraq and the country’s second biggest city after Baghdad. Retaking Mosul and expelling ISIL militants from the city would have been exceedingly difficult without first capturing Tikrit, an area roughly three hours south of Mosul. The Iraqi security forces, with vital assistance from U.S.-led air strikes and support from Shia militia units under the Popular Mobilization Units/Forces (PMUs), managed to liberate Tikrit after about a month.

The Islamic State

Authors: Zachary Laub, Online Writer/Editor, and Jonathan Masters, Deputy Editor

May 18, 2015

http://www.cfr.org/iraq/islamic-state/p14811 

Introduction 

The self-proclaimed Islamic State is a militant movement that has conquered territory in western Iraq and eastern Syria, where it has made a bid to establish a state in territories that encompass some six and a half million residents. Though spawned by al-Qaeda’s Iraq franchise, it split with Osama bin Laden’s organization and evolved to not just employ terrorist and insurgent tactics, but the more conventional ones of an organized militia.

In June 2014, after seizing territories in Iraq’s Sunni heartland, including the cities of Mosul and Tikrit, the Islamic State proclaimed itself a caliphate, claiming exclusive political and theological authority over the world’s Muslims. Its state-building project, however, has been characterized more by extreme violence than institution building. Beheadings of Western hostages and other provocative acts, circulated by well-produced videos and social media, spurred calls in the United States and Europe for military intervention, while mass violence against local civilians, justified by references to theProphet Mohammed’s early followers, has been a tool for cementing territorial control. Widely publicized battlefield successes have attracted thousands of foreign recruits, a particular concern of Western intelligence.

Fall of Ramadi raises new questions about U.S. strategy in Iraq

By Karen DeYoung and Missy Ryan 

May 19 

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Speaker of the House John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) is demanding that President Obama develop a new strategy for dealing with Islamic State militants after the group’s takeover of the city Ramadi in Iraq. (Reuters)

The fall of Ramadi to the Islamic State has raised new questions about the Obama administration’s Iraq strategy, including its efforts to resurrect Iraqi security forces and the focus of U.S. and Iraqi attention on retaking the city of Mosul by the end of this year. 

President Obama was briefed on the latest developments during a National Security Council meeting Tuesday, according to a White House statement, although officials said no formal strategy review is underway. 

White House press secretary Josh Earnest said that the fall of Ramadi was undoubtedly a “setback” but stressed “how important it is for us to maintain some perspective on this.” He cited successes such as the defeat of militants last month in Tikrit and Saturday’s raid by U.S. Special Operations forces that killed a senior Islamic State operative in Syria. 

Fall of Ramadi raises new questions about U.S. strategy in Iraq

By Karen DeYoung and Missy Ryan 

May 19

Source LInk

Speaker of the House John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) is demanding that President Obama develop a new strategy for dealing with Islamic State militants after the group’s takeover of the city Ramadi in Iraq. (Reuters)

The fall of Ramadi to the Islamic State has raised new questions about the Obama administration’s Iraq strategy, including its efforts to resurrect Iraqi security forces and the focus of U.S. and Iraqi attention on retaking the city of Mosul by the end of this year. 

President Obama was briefed on the latest developments during a National Security Council meeting Tuesday, according to a White House statement, although officials said no formal strategy review is underway. 

White House press secretary Josh Earnest said that the fall of Ramadi was undoubtedly a “setback” but stressed “how important it is for us to maintain some perspective on this.” He cited successes such as the defeat of militants last month in Tikrit and Saturday’s raid by U.S. Special Operations forces that killed a senior Islamic State operative in Syria. 

By NICK GASS

5/19/15

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Bob Gates: U.S. has no Middle East strategy 'at all' 

Former Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Tuesday that when it comes to the Middle East, he does not think the United States has a strategy “at all.”

“We’re basically sort of playing this day to day,” Gates said in a discussion on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.” “I think our interests remain important in the Middle East.”

Story Continued Below

Gates said that during his “several decades” in the Situation Room, oil was never the reason for an invasion of the region. Early on, he said, the Soviet Union proved the impetus, and later it was Iran.

The ISIS March Continues: From Ramadi on to Baghdad?

BY HASSAN HASSAN

MAY 19, 2015

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Anyone telling you the Islamic State is in decline isn’t paying attention.

The ISIS March Continues: From Ramadi on to Baghdad?

Once again, in less than a year, Iraqi soldiers abandoned their positions en masse and fled in the face of advancing Islamic State forces. The fall of the city of Ramadi, the provincial capital of Anbar province, leaves no doubt about the jihadi group’s capabilities: Despite U.S. attempts to paint it as a gravely weakened organization, the Islamic State remains a powerful force that is on the offensive in several key fronts across Syria and Iraq.

Ramadi is far from the only front on which the Islamic State is advancing. The group last week launched an offensive, supported by multiple suicide operations, in the eastern Syrian city of Deir Ezzor against President Bashar al-Assad regime’s holdouts in the military air base. In the central city of Palmyra, it attacked a regime base near the ancient Roman ruins. It also recently clashed with Syrian rebels and the regime in the eastern countryside of Aleppo, the provinces of Homs and Hama, and the southern city of Quneitra, near the border with Israel.

FIGHTING AND WINNING IN THE “GRAY ZONE”

David Barno and Nora Bensahel

May 19, 2015

http://warontherocks.com/2015/05/fighting-and-winning-in-the-gray-zone/?singlepage=1

The United States possesses the most capable armed forces in the world. America leads the world in military expenditures, spending more than the next nine nations combined — seven of which are either U.S. friends or allies. In part because of this dominance, the world has been free of major power warsfor decades.

But trends such as globalization, mass access to technology and communications, and asymmetric reactions to U.S. tactics in Afghanistan and Iraq are converging into an era where more and more conflicts are being fought at the lower end of the conflict spectrum. These form a “gray zone” between traditional notions of war and peace.

Is The Iraqi Army’s Collapse at Ramadi a Game-Changer?

Dexter Filkins

May 19, 2015

The Real Problem in Iraq

Over the weekend, as ISIS fighters rolled into Ramadi, the capital of Iraq’s Anbar Province, one of them posted a video to the Internet. It was shot from a recently captured Iraqi police station, and showed box after box of American mortar shells and bullets that appeared shiny and new. Several Humvees, apparently not long out of the packing crates, sat abandoned nearby. “This is how we get our weapons,” the narrator said in Arabic. “The Iraqi officials beg the Americans for weapons, and then they leave them here for us.”

Depressing, isn’t it? The fall of Ramadi is not just a bleak symbolic defeat for the Iraqi government and its allies, including the United States. During the nearly nine years that American troops fought in Iraq, Anbar Province was one of the most lethal places for American soldiers and Marines; some thirteen hundred died there. In 2008, though, when the Americans finally handed the city back to the Iraqi Army, many of the American Marines present at the ceremony there were not even carrying weapons. After so much bloodshed, Ramadi had become one of the safest cities in the country.

Is the 'World’s Deadliest Tank' Bankrupting Russia?

By Franz-Stefan Gady

May 21, 2015

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Russia is expected to spend more money on its military in 2015 than in any previous year in its entire post-Soviet history.

According to an analysis conducted by Forbes Magazine, Russia will spend an estimated 5.34 percent of its economic output on defense in 2015. This estimate is based on the assumption that the Russian economy will contract by 3 percent and a 15 percent hike in the real value of the military budget.

However, another estimate quoted in the Wall Street Journal based on Russian government data notes that country’s GDP may even decrease by 4.6 percent largely due to lower oil prices and Western sanctions. Consequently, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev recently announced that this year’s 3.3 trillion rubles military budget will need to be adjusted and cut by five percent or 157 billion rubles.

Even worse, according to newly published budget data of the first three months of 2015, military expenditure exceeded 9 percent of quarterly GDP – almost twice the amount cited in Forbes Magazine.

Egypt's Religious Freedom Farce

Oren Kessler

May 21, 2015 

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/egypts-religious-freedom-farce-12935?page=show

Sisi sounds the right notes on pluralism, but penalties for “insulting” a faith are enforced only for the majority creed.

President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi of Egypt presents himself as an Islamic reformer. He has challenged the sheikhs of Al-Azhar University—Sunni Islam’s preeminent religious institution—to promote moderation, and took the bold step (by Egyptian standards) of wishing worshippers a merry Christmas inCairo’s Coptic cathedral. The moves are commendable, but do little to alter an unfortunate reality: while Egypt’s penal code prohibits “insulting heavenly religions or those following it,” the law is enforced for just one faith: Sunni Islam.

Egypt takes religion seriously. By law, Egyptians are only allowed to practice one of the three recognized monotheistic religions: Islam (implicitly Sunni Islam—the faith of the overwhelming majority), Christianity (representing some ten percent of the population) and Judaism (today, Egypt has exactlyseven Jews, down from 75,000 in 1947). Still, Egyptians may only practice the creed they’re born into—the government does not recognize Muslim conversions to Christianity, and conversion from either faith to Judaism is nonexistent—unless the target faith is Islam.

Why the Drones Keep Firing

Paul R. Pillar

May 20, 2015 

http://nationalinterest.org/blog/paul-pillar/why-the-drones-keep-firing-12939

President Obama's announcement last month that earlier this year a “U.S. counterterrorism operation” had killed two hostages, including an American citizen, has become a fresh occasion for questioning the rationales for continuing attacks from unmanned aerial vehicles aimed at presumed, suspected, or even confirmed terrorists. This questioning is desirable, although not mainly for hostage-related reasons connected to this incident. Sometimes an incident has a sufficient element of controversy to stoke debate even though what most needs to be debated is not an issue specific to the incident itself. More fundamental issues about the entire drone program need more attention than they are getting.

The plight of hostages held by terrorists has a long and sometimes tragic history, almost all of which has had nothing to do with drones. Hostage-taking has been an attractive terrorist tool for so long partly because of the inherent advantages that the hostage-holders always will have over counterterrorist forces. Those advantages include not only the ability to conceal the location of hostages—evidently a successful concealment in the case of the hostages mentioned in the president's announcement—but also the ability of terrorists to kill the hostages themselves and to do so quickly enough to make any rescue operation extraordinarily difficult. Even states highly skilled at such operations, most notably Israel, have for this reason suffered failed rescue attempts.

England's Submarines Are One Step from Nuclear Disaster

Michael Peck

May 21, 2015 

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"If airport security and nuclear weapon security were both compared to prisons, the airport would be Alcatraz and Base security would be house arrest."

If this whistleblower is right, the most amazing fact about Britain's Trident nuclear missile submarines is they haven't blown up yet.

William McNeilly, a submariner who has served on Royal Navy Trident subs, is under arrest right now for disclosing official secrets. But in the 18-page document he leaked, McNeilly paints a picture of Britain's seagoing nuclear deterrent as so comical that the name of at least one sub should be changed toHMS Pinafore.

McNeilly who describes his job as "Engineering Technician Weapons Engineer Submariner," comes across as a bit of an Edward Snowden-esque character. He eavesdrops on meetings between his sub's officers. When he wants to copy a top-secret Trident missile manual that isn't allowed to leave a secure compartment, he brings along his Android smartphone and dictates the contents into the device.

Corruption in the Nigerian Military and Why Nigeria Had to Outsource the War Against Boko Haram to Mercenaries

Overkill Works

Since early in 2015 there were rumors that Nigeria, desperate to deal with the growing success of Islamic terrorists (Boko Haram) in the largely Moslem north had hired South Africa mercenaries. Turns out the rumor was true, but the truth of the subsequent defeat (but not destruction) of Boko Haram says more about the sorry state of the Nigerian armed forces than it does about the use of highly skilled mercenaries. 

The basic problem was that the Nigerian military, and the rest of the government, were very (notoriously is not too strong a term here) corrupt and had been for decades. This meant too many officers were more concerned with stealing than maintaining and leading well trained, equipped and supplied troops. The main reason the United States would not provide modern weapons to Nigeria was the corruption and the likelihood that some of those weapons would end up with Boko Haram, gangsters or some other bunch of Islamic terrorists. That had already happened with some of the weapons Nigeria already had and that sort of thing had become such a problem that some officers were being prosecuted for it. But the government refused to take measures to eliminate the corruption in the military leadership. 

Ukrainian Government Parades 2 Captured Russian Special Ops Soldiers Before the Media

Kiev shows off captured ‘Russian soldiers’ to media

May 19, 2015

Kiev (AFP) - Kiev on Tuesday showed off two purported Russian soldiers it captured during a gun battle in the separatist east that Ukraine’s pro-Western leadership says proves the Kremlin’s direct involvement in the war. 

The two wounded men – recovering in a Kiev military hospital under the guard of masked state security men – have turned into pawns in a bitter public relations battle being waged by Moscow and Kiev since Saturday’s firefight.

Russia insists that Captain Yevgeny Yerofeyev and Sergeant Aleksander Aleksandrov had been decommissioned from the armed forces by the time Kiev believes they entered the Ukrainian war zone more than a month ago.

Moscow acknowledges the presence of Russian “volunteers” and off-duty servicemen in Ukraine while rejecting charges that they were there under orders from President Vladimir Putin’s generals.

Preventing Conflict in Cyberspace Triggered by Miscalculation

by Micah Zenko

May 20, 2015

http://blogs.cfr.org/zenko/2015/05/20/preventing-conflict-cyberspace-triggered-miscalculation/

A technician monitors power output in the control room at the operating nuclear power plant in France. 

What constitutes an act of war in cyberspace? What should be U.S. response options to a consequential cyberattack? These questions are repeatedly asked at Congressional hearings with U.S. officials struggling to provide satisfactory answers. 

Today, the Center for Preventive Action released aContingency Planning Memorandum, “The Risks of Ambiguity in Cyberspace,” which I am tremendously proud to say directly addresses these issues and much more. 

Written by Benjamin Brake, a CFR international affairs fellow and foreign affairs analyst in the Bureau of Intelligence and Research at the Department of State, this report details how the Obama administration can strengthen its ability to correctly and efficiently attribute an attack, reduce the likelihood of escalation, and mitigate the consequences of an ambiguous attack. This report does not reflect the position of the U.S. government, but tracks closely with how many officials and staffers in cyber-related agencies are thinking. 

Strategic Risks of Ambiguity in Cyberspace

Author: Benjamin Brake, International Affairs Fellow

Release Date May 2015

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Introduction 

As major powers increasingly rely on digital networks for critical services, the number of plausible network attacks, accidents, or failures that could trigger or exacerbate an international crisis will increase. The likelihood and severity of such a destabilizing event will also grow as long as norms of appropriate behavior in cyberspace are underdeveloped, timely and convincing attribution of attacks remains difficult, and the number of cyber-capable actors increases. Preparing for or responding to such a crisis is complicated by ambiguity in cyberspace, primarily regarding responsibility and intent. Ambiguity about who is responsible for a cyberattack exacerbates the risk that countries amid a geopolitical crisis will misattribute an attack, unduly retaliate or expand a crisis, or be unable to attribute an attack at all, thereby preventing or delaying a response and weakening their deterrence and credibility. Ambiguity of what is intended complicates a country’s ability to distinguish between espionage operations and activity conducted in preparation for a cyberattack. The United States has strategic interests in preventing and mitigating these risks, given its commitment to global security and overwhelming dependence on networked systems for national security missions, commerce, health care, and critical infrastructure. The longer it takes to implement preventive and mitigating steps, the greater the likelihood of unnecessary military conflict in and outside of the cyber domain. 

The Art of (Cyber) War: Cybersecurity Tactics for All Financial Institutions From Bloomberg

By Richik Sarkar and James J. Giszczak

May 19, 2015

Richik Sarkar, a member of McDonald Hopkins LLC, regularly advises banks and bank vendor on risk management issues. His expertise is in contracts, commercial law, sales and trade practices, business torts, professional negligence and malpractice, financial services law, internal investigations, corporate governance and compliance and risk management. James J. Giszczak, who is Vice Chair of the firm's Litigation Department and Chair of its Data Privacy and Cybersecurity Practice Group, advises clients regarding data security measures and responding to security breaches involving sensitive personal information and protected health information.

As financial institutions of every type and size -- national, regional and community banks, thrifts, mutuaIs, credit unions, and non-bank lenders -- increase their collection of personal information about their customers and employees, they become larger targets for a data privacy incident. Financial institutions are truly in a cyber war and must fight this battle on four fronts: external threats, intentional misappropriation by rogue employees, data accidentally lost or misplaced, and vendor negligence; accordingly, proper tactics and strategy are essential for survival.

In line with DoD CIO, Army pushes forward with new cloud policy

April 10, 2015 

In line with broader Defense Department initiatives, the Army expects to soon release a new commercial cloud services provider policy that will outline service-specific acquisition requirements and provide further details about the Army's growing use of the commercial cloud.

"Transitioning to cloud-based solutions and services advances the Army's long-term objective to reduce our ownership, operation and sustainment of hardware and other commoditized information technology," Gary Wang, Army deputy CIO/G-6, wrote in an April 2 blog post. "Procuring these capabilities as services will allow the Army to focus resources more effectively to meet evolving mission needs."at will outline service-specific acquisition requirements and provide further details about the Army's growing use of the commercial cloud.

See our complete coverage of the C4ISR & Networks Conference at our Show Reporter site.

How DISA defends DoD networks

May 13, 2015

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The Defense Information Systems Agency is charged with a significant role in defending the Defense Department's networks, a role that is changing under evolving threats, policies and IT infrastructure. The launch of DoD's joint regional security stacks (JRSS), the transition to the Joint Information Environment (JIE) and a new cyber strategy from the Defense secretary all comprise a changing cyber landscape for the military.

DISA handles numerous systems and initiatives dealing with cybersecurity, but three critical programs in particular currently are undergoing developments aimed at improving DoD's cyber stance. The Cyber Situational Awareness Capability (CSAAC), a next-generation host-based security system (HBSS) and the Acropolis cyber-intelligence platform all are up for contract action, and they all provide critical layers to DoD's expanding cyber defense by fitting in with the broader efforts under JRSS, JIE and the new cyber strategy.

"In JIE, we are looking at the evolution of our security architecture. And, ultimately, moving toward a single security architecture, which really gets down to the notion of trying to do inspection at the minimal number possible of points, centralized commands and the full end-state of where we really want to get with security," said Jack Wilmer, DISA deputy chief technology officer for enterprise services.