N-deal with Iran could mean cheaper oil for India, new trade routes to Central Asia

C Uday Bhaskar

Apr 4, 2015

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The breakthrough on the contentious nuclear issue arrived at between Iran and the US-led P5 plus 1 nations announced in Lausanne on Thursday has the potential to bring about a tectonic shift in the regional strategic framework, as well as long-term implications on a global scale. The return of Iran to the global polity as a normal state has specific relevance for India in a range of geo-political, economic, energy, trade and connectivity issues. 

India has a deep stake in the stability of this extended West Asian region, which is critical to its energy security, as also the safety of its almost six million expatriate workers who provide invaluable foreign exchange remittances. The need for a rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia is imperative and if the Modi government can rise to the occasion, Delhi could be a quiet facilitator in this regard.

The web app that made information free

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KARRA SRIRAM

Wikipedia, which will turn 15 next year, can attribute its success to the unique way in which it combines free information with user convenience

In 2000, Encyclopaedia Britannica recorded its largest annual sales. A mere 12 years later, the brand had decided to stop printing copies of its eponymous product. Its audience had not only moved online, but moved to other sources altogether. It was an astonishingly rapid decline for a brand that held pride of place in intellectual traditions of the English-speaking world for nearly 250 years. Behind this change in consumer preference were the usual suspects: affordable PCs and broadband Internet access in homes. There was also an additional, if much less celebrated, technology that did Britannica in — the humble Wiki, which is the technology that powers Wikipedia, the open encyclopedia that anyone with an Internet connection can edit and improve.

Demchok and the New Silk Road: China's double standard

By Claude Arpi

03 Apr , 2015

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On May 23, Scoop Newsreported that the Chief Executive Councilor of the Ladakh Autonomous Hill Development Council (LAHDC), Rigzin Spalbar wrote to J&K Chief Minister Mufti Mohd Sayeed requesting his support on an issue important for the people of the mountainous region.

Spalbar wanted Mufti to take up with the Central Government the opening (or reopening) of the Kailash Manasarovar route via Demchok, in Leh district of Ladakh.

Soon before President Xi Jinping’s visited India in September 2014, PTI reported a forthcoming ‘political gesture’ from Beijing; the Chinese President was to announce the opening of a new route, via Nathu la in Sikkim, for Indian pilgrims wanting to go on the Kailash Manasarovar yatra.

The First Kashmir War and Lessons for India

By Brig Amar Cheema

03 Apr , 2015

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Mr C Dasgupta’s acerbic comment that the first Kashmir War was ‘moderated’ and ‘finessed’ is an unsettling truth and a reflection on how the longest war Independent India has ever fought, ran its turbulent course; from operational planning to modulating its rhythm, the war was choreographed to meet Britain’s imperialistic requirements. English machinations from the drama of accession to the application of forces ensured that the interests of her strategic creation-Pakistan; remain secure. Shadows of history fall long and the effects of the war fought over six decades back continue to bedevil the sub-continent. On one hand, they plunged India and Pakistan on a nihilist path of confrontation and conflict torn Kashmir is testimony of this vitiated legacy. On the other, Pakistan managed to wrest a major strategic advantage by occupying Gilgit-Baltistan, dubbed the ‘cockpit of intrigue’ due to its strategic relevance and adding depth opposite her heartland.

India’s Central Asia Policy Makes Comeback in Kyrgyzstan

By Micha’el Tanchum

April 02, 2015

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On March 25, 2014, members of the Indian and Kyrgyz armed forces completed a two-week joint military exercise in Kyrgyzstan. Involving special forces from each country, including Kyrgstan’s “Scorpions” units, the Kanzhar 2015 exercise focused on the neutralization of armed militant organizations in mountainous areas. While the joint exercise was relatively small, consisting of approximately 100 soldiers, the presence of Indian combat forces on the ground in Central Asia marks an important comeback for India’s hitherto floundering Connect Central Asia policy. Indeed, New Delhi’s poor maneuvering during the latter part of the Manmohan Singh government had left India isolated in Central Asia, a region critical for India’s energy, trade and security needs.

Impressions of the Indian strategic debate

Sam Roggeveen

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The US-India relationship has never been stronger. That much I knew as I began my first visit-ever to India earlier this month to meet with a wide range of Indian foreign policy and defence experts. What I did not appreciate was the depth of mistrust towards China on which this relationship is being built, particularly from the Indian side.

Consider the remarks of Foreign Secretary S Jaishankar, who opened a US-India conference in New Delhi last week with a speech of unusual potency. Consistent with much typical diplomatic practice, Jaishankar made few direct references to Beijing, but he broke away from diplomatese in his description of America’s role in the Indian Ocean. He could only have had China in mind when he said that “for us the fact that the US is both a source of supply and a military partner helps to create enough uncertainties that could actually strengthen security in Indo-Pacific region”. Consider the pungency of that phrasing – rarely do you hear senior diplomats talk about instability in other than negative terms, yet Jaishankar says India welcomes uncertainty because it complicates Chinese decision-making in the region. That’s some high-level Macchiavelianism, a trait that many senior diplomats practice but which few discuss openly.

Pakistan Must Visualise Itself as a Pragmatic Territorial State while Focusing on Security of its People

Husain Haqqani

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After last year’s attack on a Peshawar school, where 160 people including schoolchildren were massacred by Taliban, Pakistan announced a major shift in its policy towards terrorists. Civilian and military leaders simultaneously spoke of no longer distinguishing between ‘good’ and ‘bad’ Taliban. But three months later, it’s clear that distinctions remain between Jihadi groups perceived as useful in establishing external influence and ones that now threaten the internal security. 

That distinctions still exist between terrorists who attack abroad and those who strike at home was confirmed by the Islamabad High Court’s decision to set free Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi, the mastermind of the 26/11. Although the Pakistan government moved to continue Lakhvi’s detention, the court’s argument for setting him free was disingenuous. According to the High Court, evidence collected by India against Lakhvi could not be used to describe him as terrorist. 

The army has to decide, not (hapless) civilians

Ayaz Amir

April 03, 2015

Source Lnik

We should be able to cut through the simulated confusion. If Pakistan gets into any part of the Yemen mess, if Pakistani troops are sent or not sent, if Pakistan gets militarily involved in any way, it will be because the army has so decided, and not because the Sharifs are repaying their obligations to the House of Saud.

The civilian government has received a drubbing – sometimes subtle, at times not so subtle – at the army’s hands for the last year and some more. The government has been taught the limits of its power. It’s been told its place, and it has accepted that position, so much so that there’s no shortage of souls calling this a ‘soft coup’. In any event, it’s clear to everyone that on important questions it is the army which calls the shots. So how come all of a sudden it rests on Nawaz Sharif to decide Pakistan’s approach to the Saudi request for assistance?

Water Wars: China, India and the Great Dam Rush

By Sudha Ramachandran

April 03, 2015

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China’s grand plans to harness the waters of the Brahmaputra River* have set off ripples of anxiety in the two lower riparian states: India and Bangladesh. China’s construction of dams and the proposed diversion of the Brahmaputra’s waters is not only expected to have repercussions for water flow, agriculture, ecology, and lives and livelihoods downstream; it could also become another contentious issue undermining Sino-Indian relations.

The 2,880 km-long Brahmaputra originates in Tibet, where it is known as the Yarlung Tsangpo. It flows eastwards through southern Tibet for a distance of 1,625 kilometers and at its easternmost point it swings around to make a spectacular U-turn at the Shuomatan Point or Great Bend before it enters India’s easternmost state, Arunachal Pradesh. Here it is known as the Siang River. After gathering the waters of several rivers it announces itself as the Brahmaputra in the state of Assam. The river snakes lazily through Assam to then enter Bangladesh, where it is known as the Jamuna. In Bangladesh it is joined by the Ganges (known as the Padma in Bangladesh) and Meghna and together these rivers form the world’s largest delta before emptying their waters into the Bay of Bengal.

4 More Chinese Weapons of War the U.S. Navy Should Fear

Dave Majumdar

April 4, 2015

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The People’s Republic of China is rapidly growing into a peer competitor to the United States in the Western Pacific.

China has historically dominated the region since before there was a United States, but as the Qing Dynasty’s power faded in the 19th Century, so too did the Middle Kingdom’s dominance over Western Pacific. After a long period of stagnation, China is once again on the rise and is starting to reassert its power—its leaders still smarting from the humiliations of the Opium Wars and Boxer Rebellion.Under reforms launched by Deng Xiaoping 35 years ago, the People’s Republic of China has dropped most of the tenets of communism and has rapidly morphed into an economic colossus. But along with economic might has come military modernization—and a willingness to try pushing the United States out of what Chinese leaders see as their turf.

US Slams China for 'Great Wall of Sand' in South China Sea

Natalie Sambhi,David Lang

April 3, 2015

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China’s assertive maritime claims featured prominently in a speech from U.S. Pacific Fleet commander Admiral Harry B. Harris to the #FSFleet dinner this week.

In noting that overlapping maritime claims in the South China Sea heightened prospects for miscalculation, Harris drew attention to China’s land reclamation activities in the Spratly Islands which have “now created over four square kilometers of artificial landmass, roughly the size of Canberra’s Black Mountain Nature Reserve.” Harris commented on China’s creation of a “great wall of sand,” and noted that the “scope and pace of building man-made islands raise serious questions about Chinese intentions.” (See here for satellite images clearly showing China’s efforts, as published by the CSIS’ Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative.)

U.S. MISSES REAL THREAT OF CHINA’S FAKE ISLANDS

By Josh Rogin

April 3, 2015

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The Barack Obama administration has been very busy dealing with nuclear negotiations with Iran, a war against the Islamic State, a new conflict in Yemen and the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. Yet the understandable focus on these other crises has obscured China’s efforts to speed up its militarization of the South China Sea. Now, Chinese progress has reached the point that senior Pentagon officials and Congressional leaders are demanding the administration do something about it.

There is no shortage of evidence of China’s rapid buildup of infrastructure and armaments in disputed territory far from its physical borders. Satellite photos released last month show that in the past year, China has built several entirely new islands in disputed waters using land-reclamation technology, and then constructed military-friendly facilities on them. In the Spratly Islands, new Chinese land masses have been equipped with helipads and anti-aircraft towers, raising regional concerns that Beijing is using thinly veiled military coercion to establish control in an area where six Asian nations have claims.

CHINA’S MARITIME SILK ROAD GAMBLE

MARCH 26, 2015

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Ever since Xi Jinping announced the creation of a Maritime Silk Road in an October 2013 speech to the Indonesian parliament, China’s vision for “one road” running through Southeast and South Asia has driven a significant portion of Chinese foreign policy in its periphery. This has led to both the controversialAsian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) (announced in the same speech) and complementary investment funds such as the Maritime Silk Road Bank, as well as high-level diplomatic visits by Chinese leaders to countries in the region. In addition, China sees its “Silk Road Economic Belt” among its Central Asian neighbors as indivisible from the “21st Century Maritime Silk Road,” as seen by China’s slogan 一带一路 (“one belt, one road”) and its public diplomacy effort to promote both policies together. All of this indicates that, like many Chinese foreign policy initiatives, the “21st Century Maritime Silk Road” is multi-pronged: it is intended to serve diplomatic, economic, and strategic purposes.

China’s People’s Liberation Army – The Politico-Military Nexus

By Juliette Genevaz

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18 March 2015

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s ongoing anti-corruption drive has, so far, targeted 16 high-ranking military officers, as well as thousands of civil servants. The attention paid to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) by the president ever since he became Chairman of the Central Military Commission in 2012 highlights the PLA’s importance as a political actor in its own right. However, China also has an effective system of civilian control over the military, which works, unlike in the West, not because the armed forces are deemed to be apolitical, but, on the contrary, because they are thoroughly politicised.

Exposed: How China's Navy Went Global

Christopher Sharman

April 2, 2015

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Over the last decade, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has increased the frequency, duration, distance from the mainland, and complexity of its operations.

Not only does China now maintain a permanent counter-piracy escort flotilla in the Indian Ocean, it also routinely conducts naval exercises and operations beyond the First Island Chain, which stretches from the Kurile Islands near Russia through Japan, the Ryukyu Archipelago, Taiwan, and the Philippines to Borneo Island. These changes illustrate growing PLAN capabilities and raise the prospect of changes in Chinese maritime strategy and an expanded PLAN geographic role.

Don’t Worry, China Won’t Dump the Dollar

By Joshua P. Zoffer

April 03, 2015

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A cursory scan of the last three months of financial media might give one the impression that China is preparing to cut its ties to U.S. Treasuries and the dollar. Between the renminbi’s recent devaluation – driven by net capital outflows, not intervention – and reported declines in Chinese purchases of U.S. Treasuries late last year, it is hardly surprising to hear voice given to fears that China could “dump the dollar.” Analysts worry that China is beginning a process of unwinding its $1.3 trillion holdings of U.S. Treasuries to further its aims of internationalizing the RMB and limiting its financial interdependence with the U.S. If true, this process would increase borrowing rates for the U.S. government, disrupt the global financial system by undermining faith in Treasuries and the dollar, and perhaps even lead to rising tensions between the U.S. and China by eliminating an important source of mutual interest.

Myanmar Apologizes to China for Deadly Strike

By Shannon Tiezzi

April 03, 2015

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On March 13, a bomb fell on a sugarcane field in China’s Yunnan province, just across the border from Myanmar. The explosion killed five Chinese villagersand injured eight others. Beijing immediately blamed the Myanmar Air Force for the bombing and promised China’s own military would take “resolute action” to defend its citizens from harm. Myanmar’s government has been fighting Kokang rebels in the northeast since February 2015.

On April 2, Myanmar’s foreign minister, U Wunna Maung Lwin, officially apologized for the bombing, “On behalf of the Myanmar government and military, I officially apologize to China and express my deep sympathy to the families of the victims and the injured,” he told his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi.

What Iranians Are Saying about the Nuke Deal

Alex Vatanka

April 4, 2015

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Iran’s foreign minister, Javad Zarif, was on his way back to Tehran from Lausanne as accolades began to pile up. At the airport, he received a rapturous reception, as if the Team Melli, Iran’s national soccer team, had beat Germany.

But not everyone was praising Zarif. Fars News, a hardline outlet, called some of Iran’s nuclear compromises a “disaster.” Hardline Iranian officials are questioning what exactly Zarif surrendered during the talks. The next few days and weeks, as the negotiators look to fine-tune the agreement, will reveal more, but the first reactions are nonetheless telling.

The Spin Zone: Don't Buy Obama's Hype on Iran

Dov S. Zakheim

April 3, 2015

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President Obama got his wish: he can point to an agreement with Iran that, he claims, is the first step toward normalization of the two countries' relations. He clearly believes that by engaging Tehran, he can both prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and transform it into a force for stability in the Middle East.

The trouble is that no other state in the region, with the exception of that portion of Syria still under the control of Bashar al-Assad, and the Sh'ia-dominated government in Baghdad, has any confidence that Obama is correct on either count.

Obama’s Iran Nuke Deal: Winners & Losers

Leslie H. Gelb

04.03.15

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The pragmatists are triumphant for the moment, but the hawks are circling.

The emerging arrangements on Iranian nuclear programs announced Thursday are a clear plus/plus for both sides. Only those who don’t want any deal see it otherwise.

The U.S. and its partners in the Swiss talks get a downsizing and overhaul of Iran’s nuclear facilities with strong inspection rights, stretching warning time to counter Iranian cheating from a couple of months to at least a year. Tehran gets the economic sanctions noose loosened.

But the pleasant surprise of this latest step toward the June 30 deadline obscures, for the moment, the real winners and losers, the new strategic possibilities and risks.

THE GEOPOLITICS OF THE NUCLEAR NEGOTIATIONS WITH IRAN – ANALYSIS

By Brandon Friedman

APRIL 3, 2015

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In a provocative sliver of a book, The Politics of Chaos in the Middle East, which was published before the “Arab Spring” upheavals, French scholar Olivier Ròy argues that three “traumas” mark the contemporary history of the Arab Middle East between Suez and Iran.[1] The first trauma was the European-designed post-World War I state system that ended Sharif Husayn’s vision of one independent Arab-Muslim kingdom from Arabia to the western border of Iran. The second trauma was the establishment of the State of Israel in 1948, and the repeated defeats suffered at its hands. The third trauma, Ròy argues, is still unfolding and is the destruction of Sunni Arab political supremacy east of Suez. Ròy argues that this trauma took place in two stages: the first stage was the 1978-1979 Iranian Revolution, which resulted in the establishment of the revolutionary Islamic Republic of Iran. The second stage were the chain of events set in motion by 2003 U.S.- led invasion of Iraq, which led to Shi‘i domination of the Iraqi state. The Iranian nuclear negotiation should be viewed in the context of this third trauma. The world justifiably sees the Iranian nuclear negotiations in the global context of upholding nuclear non-proliferation and preventing the spread of nuclear weapons, which surely it is. But in the Middle East, the nuclear negotiations are viewed as being inextricably linked to the broader struggle for the legitimate stewardship of the region, as well as to the regional balance of power.

Yemen: The Houthi Enigma

Robert F. Worth

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There is a scene in Safa al Ahmad’s remarkable BBC documentary, Yemen: The Rise of the Houthis, when a spokesman for the Houthi movement escorts her to a remote and unguarded section of the border between Yemen and Saudi Arabia. It is nothing more than a half-trampled barbed-wire fence, in a golden-brown landscape of dry hills and scattered acacia trees. “This means nothing, it represents nothing,” he says of the border. The Houthis, a once-obscure band of insurgents from the mountains of northern Yemen who adhere to the Zaydi branch of Shia Islam, have over the past few months taken over much of the country. “We cannot be defined by sect or confined by borders,” the spokesman says. “We will help oppressed people all over the world.” Then, flourishing a confident smile, he predicts the imminent demise of the House of Saud.

2014 Gaza War Assessment: The New Face of Conflict

http://www.jinsa.org/gaza-assessment

Click here to download the full report.The Hamas strategy employed in the 2014 Gaza War represents the new face of war that threatens to undermine the effectiveness of conventional militaries, endangers civilians in irregular conflicts and distorts the international legal structure. American policymakers and military leaders should take heed and act to avert the potentially serious consequences for U.S. national security.

Battles have been fought for millennia in cities, amid large civilian populations. Many wars have been waged against unconventional adversaries willing to kill their opponent’s civilians and hide among their own. Misinformation has been disseminated and the mantle of justice claimed in the service of countless causes. However, the 2014 Gaza War featured a hybrid non-state force – Hamas – that perhaps uniquely combined four elements: 

Duties Without Borders

By Joseph S. Nye

26 March 2014 

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CAMBRIDGE – More than 130,000 people are said to have died in Syria’s civil war. United Nations reports of atrocities, Internet images of attacks on civilians, and accounts of suffering refugees rend our hearts. But what is to be done – and by whom?

Recently, the Canadian scholar-politician Michael Ignatieff urged US President Barack Obama to impose a no-fly zone over Syria, despite the near-certainty that Russia would veto the United Nations Security Council resolution needed to legalize such a move. In Ignatieff’s view, if Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is allowed to prevail, his forces will obliterate the remaining Sunni insurgents – at least for now; with hatreds inflamed, blood eventually will flow again.

THE ROLES OF NAVIES IN THE YEMENI CONFLICT

By Claude Berube, Stephanie Chenault, Louis M-v, Chris Rawley

MARCH 31, 2015

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Although the Saudi-led Operation RESOLUTE STORM (alternately translated asDECISIVE STORM) began with air strikes into Yemen on March 26 and continue as of this writing, the heightened level of regional activity also includes maritime operations. These national and multi-national operations highlight the importance of naval platforms and presence. Yemen is strategically located with the heavily-trafficked Red Sea to its west and the Gulf of Aden along its southern coast. Some twenty thousand ships transit the Gulf of Aden annually. Yemen’s ports have been largely closed to commercial traffic.

The Changing Security Balance in the Gulf

By Anthony H. Cordesman

APR 2, 2015

http://csis.org/publication/changing-security-balance-gulf

The Burke Chair at CSIS has prepared a new report on the balance of conventional forces, asymmetric warfare forces, missile forces, nuclear forces, and paramilitary and non-state forces in the Gulf. It is entitled The Changing Security Balance in the Gulf and is available on the CSIS web site at https://csis.org/publication/changing-security-balance-gulf

This is a first rough draft. It will be revised to reflect outside comments, suggested revisions, and additional data, and any input will be gratefully received. Please send any material to Anthony H. Cordesman atacordesman@gmail.com.

Download PDF file of "The Changing Security Balance in the Gulf"

The IMF’s Very Tough Love for Ukraine

BY YURIY GORODNICHENKO

APRIL 2, 2015

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The International Monetary Fund last month threw what looks like a much-improved financial lifeline to Ukraine—and indeed, the new loan program is welcome help for a desperate need. But a check on the math of one prominent IMF realist suggests that the cost of the overall aid package could be a Ukrainian economic shrinkage this year of an extremely painful 10 percent—much more than the IMF predicts publicly.

On March 11, the IMF approved a $17.5 billion support program for Ukraine, and within 48 hours delivered the first $5 billion tranche. Ukraine’s desperate need for this cash infusion was illustrated by the dramatic reversal in a months’ long shrinkage of the national currency. The hryvnia rose to a value of 21.3 per US dollar, two weeks after having traded at nearly 34 UAH per USD. 

Russia’s role in Ukraine seen shifting to training rebels

By NATALIYA VASILYEVA

April 3, 2015

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YENAKIEYEVE, Ukraine (AP) — On a recent spring morning, an important visitor watched Russian-backed rebels conduct infantry maneuvers in eastern Ukraine.

"The general is very pleased," rebel commander Ostap Cherny told his troops, referring to the figure in camouflage encircled by guards.

The man — almost certainly a Russian military officer — became alarmed when he saw two journalists approach. His entourage shielded him — forbidding photos — and the group sped off in a motorcade, the “general” safely inside a black Toyota SUV with no license plates.

Nearly a year into the Ukraine conflict, the extent of Moscow’s direct involvement has become clear: They may wear camouflage, but the Russians’ presence in eastern Ukraine is hardly invisible.

US New Silk Road Initiative Needs Urgent Renewal

By Richard Weitz

24 March 2015

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Despite the drawdown of U.S. military forces in Afghanistan, the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Central Asia, and a preoccupation with developments in East Asia and the Middle East, the Obama administration continues to affirm support for promoting the economic integration of South and Central Asia through its New Silk Road initiative. Launched soon after the administration assumed office, the policy seeks to promote regional trade and transit, improve customs and border flows, and deepen business and popular ties among these countries in order to promote peace and prosperity. But the administration must take urgent action to renew the project and achieve its worthy objectives.

Ukraine: NATO Should Block the Bosporus and Assure its Allies

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The times for good-will diplomacy are over. In response, NATO should block the Bosporus for Russian warships. Putin wants to play great power politics? Okay, let's do it.

Choose a hard line!

The last time the Alliance has been as relevant as today was 9/11 or maybe even pre-1991. After the German-French-Polish brokered deal in Kiev has effectively failed, EU is out of business. Moreover, Russia obviously does not take the EU serious. Hence, Europe needs to be backed up by American power. In short, we need NATO.

Good-will diplomacy and communiques about cooperation had their chance. They failed. Putin is pursuing a hard line and so should the West. Through NATO as a political alliance, the West should take a hard line on Russia. Putin has been part of the problem in Iran and Syria already and he never intended to become part of the solution. Therefore, it is time that the West stops giving a damn about Russian positions.

Are U.S. Aircraft Carriers About to Become Obsolete?

James Hasik

April 3, 2015

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Ever since I was a midshipman—way back under a Navy Secretary named Lehman—pundits, analysts, and strategists have been wondering whether the US Navy’s supercarriers are too big. And so again in 2015. The new Ford-class ships are a few billion more expensive than their Nimitz predecessors, and Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman John McCain is worked up about that price.

The Navy and Newport News Shipbuilding argue that the cost is merited, as the newer ships promise more sorties per hour than those in the fleet today. Even so, Sam LaGrone of USNI News reports that the “Navy is Conducting an Alternative Carrier Study”. He quotes Navy Secretary Stackley, in testimony before McCain’s panel, telling of how the service wants to know.

German Power and the Ukraine Conflict

Ulrich Speck

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The Ukraine crisis has revealed both the strengths of German foreign policy—diplomatic skill and economic power—and its weakness—a lack of military muscle.

In the course of the Ukraine conflict that erupted in 2014, Germany has for the first time taken the lead on a major international crisis. The main center of Western action and coordination hasn’t been Washington, Brussels, Paris, or London, but Berlin. The crisis has illustrated the strength of Germany’s foreign policy: its skilled use of economic power and diplomacy. But the confrontation has also demonstrated Berlin’s weakness: the lack of a military dimension to German power. 

Germany has become a leader in the Ukraine crisis for three reasons. First, German power has grown since the country’s reunification in 1990. Germany not only has the biggest economy and the largest population in the EU but also lies geographically at the center of the union and is deeply embedded in EU structures. Second, the crisis is of vital importance for Germany because the entire geopolitical order to the country’s East is at stake. Third, there was no one else to take the lead. Paris has weakened in recent years. London is increasingly disconnected from the EU. Washington has taken a step back from European affairs. And Brussels lacks the capability to lead the EU on foreign policy.

Is Russia Losing Competitiveness on Arms Markets?

By Samuel Bendett

April 2, 2015

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That at least is the view of Alexander Brindikov, chairman of the advisory group to the general director of Rosoboronexport, Russia's main arms export entity. Global competition from countries using technologies analogous to Russia's, such as Ukrainian and Chinese exports, challenges Russia in arms markets that are increasingly crowded. Prior to the fighting in Eastern Ukraine and the conflict over Crimea, Ukraine used to deliver technical components and technology to its Russian counterparts, maintaining the relationship established in the Soviet era, when certain key military industries were based in Ukraine. According to Brindikov, there are "internal problems" with specific Russian industries, such as electronics and high-tech equipment. Russian dailySvobpodnaya Pressa (SV) decided to verify these conclusions and investigate the outlook for Russia's military exports in 2015. "For example," continued Brindikov, "Russian armored vehicles face increasing competition from Germany, China, and even Ukraine. We have become uncompetitive, we had problems with the industry, with the delivery of the equipment. Among the industries where Russian arms manufacturers are facing difficulties to compete are artillery systems. We are in a bad position there."

Vulnerable Frontier: Militarized Competition in Outer Space

By Michael Haas

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Critical dependencies on space-based infrastructure have grown dramati­cally in recent decades, and now extend to small states and the global economy as a whole. However, as geopolitical rivalries re-emerge in more traditional domains of interstate conflict, the prospects for future stability in space appear increasingly dim. While the consequences of a great-power clash in space could be ruinous, a shared understanding of the perils in­volved has yet to take hold. Strategic interaction along the ‘final frontier’ is set to enter a period of considerable danger.

The Normalization of Cyber-International Relations

By Myriam Dunn Cavelty

April 2015

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Has the gradual transition to cyber-based international relations had unintended consequences? Myriam Dunn Cavelty thinks so. By focusing exclusively on state-to-state relations and defending against cyber-attacks, state actors have given short shrift to other voices and the possibility of large-scale cyber-exploitation.

We have arrived in an age of mega-hacks, in which high-impact and high-attention cyberincidents are becoming the new normal. The increase in strategically consequential, targeted cyberincidents is met with intensified efforts to reduce the risk of cyberconflict through norm-building, mainly geared towards creating deterrent effects at the state level. While these new developments have an overall stabilizing effect on cyber-international relations, the narrow focus on destructive cyberattacks and on state-to-state relations is creating unintended security-reducing side-effects.

The Strange Death of the Counter-insurgency Era

By MLR Smith and David Martin Jones

2 April 2015

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The notion of counter-insurgency is an elusive idea that in general terms simply denotes the attempt to confront a challenge to established authority, but which came to function as a synonym for long-term external armed interventions by Western states, most notably in Iraq and Afghanistan. In the mid-2000s, ‘COIN’ was elevated to a position of explicit importance in defence thinking and became a source of endless fascination in analytical circles. The ‘classical’ thinkers of counter-insurgency were resurrected from a largely forgotten past and became an object of reverence. COIN became the defining military practice of the age.

THE BLOG THAT PROVES ISLAMIC STATE JIHADISTS WERE LISTENING TO EDWARD SNOWDEN: LOCKED IN A DIGITAL ARMS RACE WITH THE WESTERN INTELLIGENCE SERVICES STAY ANONYMOUS ONLINE – THANKS TO EDWARD SNOWDEN

By RC Porter

April 1, 2015

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Jamie Bartlett, writing in the March 31, 2015 London’s The Telegraph, writes that Western intelligence services are having a much more difficult time tracking al Qaeda, the Islamic State, and other darker angles of our nature because these groups/individuals are taking advantage of what Edward Snowden told them. Alex Younger, Head of Britain’s MI6 [London’s Foreign Intelligence Directorate], said yesterday “Britain’s intelligence services are involved in a “technology arms race,” as they attempt to tackle threats posed by the “dark side of globalization,” facilitated by the Worldwide Web. And, that digital arms race got more sophisticated and complex, in the aftermath of the Snowden leaks, as al Qaeda, the Islamic State, and others have substantially increased their use of encryption on the digital highway. Rob Wainwright, the Head of Interpol, told London’s Radio 5, this past weekend, said sophisticated encryption software was “perhaps the biggest problem for the police and security service authorities in dealing with the treat of terrorism.”