By: Hugo Spaulding and Daniel Pitcairn
The ongoing confrontation between Russia and Turkey turns violent in South Caucasus. Russia and Turkey escalated tensions in the historical arena of the South Caucasus following the downing of a Russian fighter jet by Turkish warplanes in northern Syria on November 24. Azerbaijan and Armenia - close military allies of Turkey and Russia, respectively - engaged in fierce skirmishes along the frontlines of the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh on December 8. Azerbaijan later shelled the enclave with tanks for the first time since a 1994 ceasefire. The clashes come after Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu declared on November 26 that Turkey would do “everything possible to free the occupied lands” of Azerbaijan. The mounting hostility between Turkey and Russia threatens to further accelerate the conflict. Russia also took independent steps to assert its military presence in the South Caucasus. Russia reinforced its positions along the eastern border of Turkey with new deployments of attack and transport helicopters to a Russian airbase in Armenia on December 8. Separately, Georgia accused Russia of violating its airspace on December 9 and 10 with helicopters and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) deployed from the Russian-backed breakaway state of South Ossetia. The full extent to which Russia and Turkey intend to stoke tensions in the South Caucasus remain unclear. The ongoing posturing nevertheless offers early signs that both countries may view military competition in the region as an outlet for future aggression below the threshold of direct military confrontation.
United opposition to Russian intervention in Ukraine showed signs of faltering in the wake of Moscow’s Middle East intervention. Vice President Joe Biden pledged during a visit to Kyiv to prolong sanctions and raise the “cost” on Moscow if Russia persisted with its military operations in eastern Ukraine, where daily firefights resumed in November following a two-month ceasefire. The U.S. also demonstrated its solidarity with Ukraine through the announcement of a new $190 million aid package and the International Monetary Fund altered its lending regulations in order to enable continued economic support to Ukraine regardless of its repayment of a $3 billion debt owed to Russia. The European Union (EU) nonetheless postponed an expected decision to extend sanctions against Russia on December 9, deviating from these strong messages of support. The delay followed calls for further debate by Italy,which pledged to “boost collaboration and cooperation” with Russia to combat terrorism on December 11. U.S. President Barack Obama had reportedly reached an informal agreement with Western European leaders including Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi to extend sanctions for six months during talks on the sidelines of the G-20 Summit in November. The EU could still decide to extend sanctions against Russia before they expire on January 31. The postponement nevertheless suggests weakening EU opposition to Russian aggression in Eastern Europe as Russia positions itself as a necessary partner in the fight against ISIS in Syria.See: “Russia Security Update: December 1 - 9, 2015,” by Hugo Spaulding, December 1, 2015;“Ukrainian Local Elections Leave Room for Russian Influence,” by Daniel Pitcairn, Hugo Spaulding, and Daniel Urchick, November 2, 2015; Putin’s Information Warfare in Ukraine: Soviet Origins of Russia’s Hybrid Warfare, by Maria Snegovaya, September 21, 2015. Direct press or briefing requests for Russia and Ukraine analyst Hugo Spaulding here.
The ongoing confrontation between Russia and Turkey turns violent in South Caucasus. Russia and Turkey escalated tensions in the historical arena of the South Caucasus following the downing of a Russian fighter jet by Turkish warplanes in northern Syria on November 24. Azerbaijan and Armenia - close military allies of Turkey and Russia, respectively - engaged in fierce skirmishes along the frontlines of the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh on December 8. Azerbaijan later shelled the enclave with tanks for the first time since a 1994 ceasefire. The clashes come after Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu declared on November 26 that Turkey would do “everything possible to free the occupied lands” of Azerbaijan. The mounting hostility between Turkey and Russia threatens to further accelerate the conflict. Russia also took independent steps to assert its military presence in the South Caucasus. Russia reinforced its positions along the eastern border of Turkey with new deployments of attack and transport helicopters to a Russian airbase in Armenia on December 8. Separately, Georgia accused Russia of violating its airspace on December 9 and 10 with helicopters and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) deployed from the Russian-backed breakaway state of South Ossetia. The full extent to which Russia and Turkey intend to stoke tensions in the South Caucasus remain unclear. The ongoing posturing nevertheless offers early signs that both countries may view military competition in the region as an outlet for future aggression below the threshold of direct military confrontation.
United opposition to Russian intervention in Ukraine showed signs of faltering in the wake of Moscow’s Middle East intervention. Vice President Joe Biden pledged during a visit to Kyiv to prolong sanctions and raise the “cost” on Moscow if Russia persisted with its military operations in eastern Ukraine, where daily firefights resumed in November following a two-month ceasefire. The U.S. also demonstrated its solidarity with Ukraine through the announcement of a new $190 million aid package and the International Monetary Fund altered its lending regulations in order to enable continued economic support to Ukraine regardless of its repayment of a $3 billion debt owed to Russia. The European Union (EU) nonetheless postponed an expected decision to extend sanctions against Russia on December 9, deviating from these strong messages of support. The delay followed calls for further debate by Italy,which pledged to “boost collaboration and cooperation” with Russia to combat terrorism on December 11. U.S. President Barack Obama had reportedly reached an informal agreement with Western European leaders including Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi to extend sanctions for six months during talks on the sidelines of the G-20 Summit in November. The EU could still decide to extend sanctions against Russia before they expire on January 31. The postponement nevertheless suggests weakening EU opposition to Russian aggression in Eastern Europe as Russia positions itself as a necessary partner in the fight against ISIS in Syria.See: “Russia Security Update: December 1 - 9, 2015,” by Hugo Spaulding, December 1, 2015;“Ukrainian Local Elections Leave Room for Russian Influence,” by Daniel Pitcairn, Hugo Spaulding, and Daniel Urchick, November 2, 2015; Putin’s Information Warfare in Ukraine: Soviet Origins of Russia’s Hybrid Warfare, by Maria Snegovaya, September 21, 2015. Direct press or briefing requests for Russia and Ukraine analyst Hugo Spaulding here.
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