Russia and Ukraine

By: Hugo Spaulding

Russia’s standoff with NATO in Europe escalated as the alliance moved to include Montenegro. NATO extended an invitation to the western Balkan state of Montenegro to begin formal accession talks to become the alliance’s 29th member-state on December 2. Russia termed the invitation a “confrontational step” and promised “retaliatory actions” aiming at restoring “parity” between Russia and NATO. The accession process may take several months, opening the opportunity for political destabilization in a country which only gained independence from Russian ally Serbia in 2006. Montenegro’s pro-Russian political opposition has played a leading role in weeks of intermittently-violent anti-government demonstrations that have included condemnations of possible NATO accession. Russia may respond to NATO’s planned expansion by stoking political instability in Montenegro and moving forward with previous plans to bolster security ties with neighboring Serbia. Russia may also expand its destabilization operations in the former Soviet Union, including eastern Ukraine.

This geostrategic escalation between NATO and Russia in Europe comes as Turkey downed a Russian fighter jet that had crossed into its airspace, the first such incident in over sixty years. Continued Russian posturing against NATO, including a recent violation of the Cold War-era Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, has prompted the U.S. to increase its own investment in advanced drones, long-cruise missiles, and strategic bombers, according to a senior U.S. defense official. U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Joseph Dunford also spoke with his Russian counterpart Gen. Valery Gerasimov in the first top-level military-to-military communications between the two countries since 2014. Escalating tensions have nevertheless driven splits among European NATO allies. Germany in particular has sought to smooth relations with Moscow. German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier stated that Russian has played a definite “constructive” role in reaching a political settlement to the Syrian Civil War and later called upon NATO to revive a special communication channel with Russia that had been suspended following the annexation of Crimea in March 2014. The Russian military interventions in Ukraine and Syria have further widened the rift between eastern member-states in the former Soviet sphere and Western Europe, ensuring that closer dialogue between NATO and Moscow will support the Kremlin’s grand strategic objective of weakening the alliance.

See: “Russian Security Update: November 25 - December 1, 2015,” by Hugo Spaulding, December 1, 2015;“Russian Security Update: November 18 - 25, 2015,” by Hugo Spaulding, November 25, 2015; “Russia Security Update: November 11 - 18, 2015,” by Hugo Spaulding, November 18, 2015; Putin’s Information Warfare in Ukraine: Soviet Origins of Russia’s Hybrid Warfare, by Maria Snegovaya, September 21, 2015. Direct press or briefing requests for Russia and Ukraine analyst Hugo Spaulding here.

http://www.matthewaid.com/